[lit-ideas] Re: America Bleeding

It's really scaring me that the polls show a dead heat.  That makes me  think 
that whatever happens it will be litigated into the next decade,  effectively 
handing Bush another chunk of time in which to do his  damage.
 
Julie Krueger
 
========Original Message========
    Subj: [lit-ideas] Re: America Bleeding  Date: 10/31/04 8:01:54 PM Central 
Standard Time  From: _mccreery@xxxxxxxx (mailto:mccreery@xxxxxxx)   To: 
_lit-ideas@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx (mailto:lit-ideas@xxxxxxxxxxxxx)   Sent on:    

Julie,
Check out the following at daily  Kos.
---------------------------------------------

Polling Open  Thread III (Sun-Mon Edition)
by DemFromCT
Sun Oct 31st, 2004 at  22:45:16 GMT



LV Two-way Tracking polls are here (Zogby and WMUR  NH state trackers 
are lower on the page):

Bush  Kerry

Zogby      48    48    Sunday


TIPP      47    42    Sunday


Rasmussen 48.1  47.1  Sunday


WaPo      48    48    Sunday


Fox  46    47   Sunday



The tracking polls will be updated throughout  the day. Here's an 
excellent analysis of the Zogby state trackers by Alan  Abramowitz, 
pointing out that the movement in all the state polls suggest  they're 
all showing sampling error noise and are too close to call from  Zogby 
alone.

The average correlation in the day-to-day movements  between each state 
and the other nine states ranges from -.16 for Michigan  to .02 for 
Pennsylvania. The average correlation across all 10 states is  -.08.

Since October 24 the mean shift in the margin between Kerry  and Bush 
across the ten states has been exactly zero. In the past 2 days,  the 
mean shift has been 0.2 points toward Kerry.

Conclusion--there is nothing going on here. The day-to-day shifts in 
the  Zogby state tracking polls, like the day-to-day shifts in the 
national  tracking polls are basically random.

Nonetheless, there is  comforting news in the Zogby numbers here from 
today.

Late  Sunday, there was a Pew Poll showing no effect from the Bin Laden 
tape (now  CW, btw) and a K46-B45 RV, B48-K45 LV spread (with allocation 
of undecideds  by Pew special sauce). CBS/NY Times has Bush 49-46 (LV). 
The NBC/WSJ poll  shows Bush 48 Kerry 47 Nader 1 LV (and no effect from 
the Bin laden tape) -  no link yet. Gallup comes in at 49-49.

Once again, that doesn't  mean the polls suck. It means all the polls 
show tight races, Bush is below  50 (usually at 48) and that a GOTV 
turnout win for Kerry is beyond polling's  ability to predict.

General 2004 ::  Link & Discuss (43  comments, 43 new)


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