>Date: Sat, 27 Oct 2012 15:20:06 -0400 >From: rac-bulletins@xxxxxxx >Subject: [RAC-Bulletin] [EMCOMM]: WOCN31 CWHX 271745,Tropical cyclone > information statement updated by the Canadian,Hurricane Centre of > Environment > Canada,At 2:57 PM ADT Saturday 27 October 2012 >To: Steve Cutway VE3KC <ve3kc@xxxxxx> >Reply-to: rachq@xxxxxx >Organization: Radio Amateurs of Canada >List-Unsubscribe: <mailto:rac-bulletins-leave@xxxxxxx?subject=unsubscribe> >List-Id: <rac-bulletins@xxxxxxx> >User-Agent: Mozilla/5.0 (Windows NT 5.1; rv:16.0) Gecko/20121010 > Thunderbird/16.0.1 >Original-recipient: rfc822;ve3kc@xxxxxxxxx > > > >WOCN31 CWHX 271745 >Tropical cyclone information statement updated by the Canadian >Hurricane Centre of Environment Canada >At 2:57 PM ADT Saturday 27 October 2012 >--------------------------------------------------------------------- >Tropical cyclone information statement for: > Nova Scotia > Prince Edward Island > New Brunswick > Southern Quebec > Southern Ontario. > > For hurricane Sandy. > > The next statement will be issued by 9:00 PM ADT. > > Hurricane Sandy will be reaching the East Coast of the united > States on Monday. While the most severe conditions will > Affect Northeastern United States, wide-ranging and > Signigicant impacts are expected across parts of eastern > Canada. > >--------------------------------------------------------------------- >==discussion== >1. Summary of basic information at 3.00 PM ADT. > >Location: 29.5north 75.7west about 440 kilometres northeast of >Freeport Bahamas. > >Maximum sustained winds: 120 km/h. > >Present movement: north-northeast 15 km/h > >Minimum central pressure: 958 MB > >2. Public weather impacts and warnings summary. > >Hurricane Sandy is currently north of the Bahamas and is moving >north-northeastward. Although Sandy briefly weakened to a >Tropical storm earlier today maximum sustained winds associated >With it have increased to 120 km/h bringing Sandy back to hurricane >status. During the weekend Sandy is forecast to continue to track >north or northeastward while remaining at hurricane strength. Sandy >will gradually lose some of its tropical characteristics and on >Monday it is expected to take an uncharacteristic turn to the >northwest and begin interacting with an approaching trough from the >west. > >Current indications from various weather models are that Sandy could >strengthen before moving inland on the United States East Coast in >the vicinity of Delaware late Monday as a very large and powerful >storm. It is important to remember that impacts will cover a large >area well away from the center. There are various factors >Influencing the evolution of the storm and as a result there is >Still some degree of uncertainty with respect to the magnitude of >The impacts from the storm. For this reason people living in these >areas are urged to pay close attention to messages from the Canadian >Hurricane Centre and local weather forecasts and possible future >warnings throughout the weekend. > >A. Rainfall. > >Based on the current forecast scenario, Southern and Eastern Ontario >and Western Quebec are likely to see the most rainfall from this >system with total amounts by Tuesday evening possibly reaching the 50 >to 100 millimetre range which would be typical for post-tropical >weather systems. However since post-tropical Sandy will be >interacting with a stalled front over Ontario, localised heavier >rainfall amounts of over 100 mm are possible over areas adjacent >To Lake Ontario northward to Algonquin Park. > >Heavy rain could also affect other parts of Quebec with amounts of >20 mm likely. At this time, the probability of rainfall amounts >exceeding 25 mm for these areas is around 40%. Heavier rain is >expected over the Maritimes and amounts in this area could exceed 50 >mm. > >The precipitation could mix with or turn into snow over parts of >South-Central Ontario and extreme Western Quebec as temperatures >approach the freezing mark north and west of the storm. A >Significant snowfall event could occur over Central Ontario. > >B. Winds. > >Most areas of Southern Ontario will be subject to very windy >conditions with possible severe gusts in excess of 100 km/h >especially along Western Lake Ontario and the Niagara Escarpment. >These gusts could cause broken tree limbs or in some cases uprooted >trees which may result in downed utility lines. Residual falling >leaves can also obstruct storm water drainage systems along roadways >particularly in urban areas. This combined with heavy rainfall could >increase the risk of flooding in some areas. > >Very strong northeast winds will also affect eastern and Western >Quebec. There is a good probability of wind gusts exceeding 90 >Km/h. Gusty winds can also be expected in the Maritimes especially >Monday night. > >C. Waves. > >There will be a risk for large waves along the Atlantic coast of >Nova Scotia especially along the south shore as wave activity begins >to increase Monday into Tuesday. These large waves could produce >pounding surf conditions. > >3. Marine weather impacts and warnings summary. > >Gale force winds are expected to spread to Canadian waters well in >advance of Sandy reaching the United States coastline. Gales are >expected on Monday over the Great Lakes, the St Lawrence seaway and >western Maritimes marine waters. There is a possibility of storm >force winds over southwestern marine areas of the Maritimes and on >the Great Lakes. > >Also, higher than normal water levels are expected on the st >Lawrence River during high tide Monday evening and especially >Tuesday evening. This could result in coastal flooding in the >Quebec City region. > >Visit weatheroffice.Gc.Ca/hurricane (all in lower case) for the >latest: > >- forecast position, central pressure table. > >- strength and predicted wind radii table. > >- hurricane track information map. > >- technical discussion. > >Please also refer to the public and marine forecasts and warnings >issued by Environment Canada for your area. > >End > >FXCN31 CWHX 271800 >TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL INFORMATION STATEMENT ISSUED BY THE >CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTRE OF ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT 2.55 PM ADT >SATURDAY 27 OCTOBER 2012. > >THE NEXT STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY 9.00 PM ADT > >1. CURRENT POSITION, STRENGTH, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MOTION > >AT 3.00 PM ADT, HURRICANE SANDY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 29.5 N AND >LONGITUDE 75.7 W, ABOUT 238 NAUTICAL MILES OR 440 KM NORTHEAST OF >FREEPORT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 65 KNOTS (120 KM/H) >AND CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 958 MB. SANDY IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHEAST AT 8 >KNOTS (15 KM/H). > >2. FORECAST POSITION, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND STRENGTH > >DATE TIME LAT LON MSLP MAX WIND > ADT MB KTS KMH >OCT 27 3.00 PM 29.5N 75.7W 958 65 120 >OCT 28 3.00 AM 31.3N 74.2W 955 65 120 >OCT 28 3.00 PM 33.2N 72.8W 950 65 120 >OCT 29 3.00 AM 35.3N 72.0W 950 70 130 >OCT 29 3.00 PM 37.2N 73.2W 955 65 120 >OCT 30 3.00 AM 38.9N 75.8W 960 60 111 >OCT 30 3.00 PM 40.0N 77.1W 968 50 93 POST-TROPICAL >OCT 31 3.00 AM 40.5N 77.4W 975 45 83 POST-TROPICAL >OCT 31 3.00 PM 41.5N 77.3W 980 40 74 POST-TROPICAL >NOV 01 3.00 AM 43.0N 77.0W 985 35 65 POST-TROPICAL > > >3. TECHNICAL DISCUSSION > >A. ANALYSIS > >HURRICANE SANDY CONTINUES TO HAVE INTENSE CONVECTION NEAR AND TO THE >WEST AND NORTHWEST OF THE CENTRE. BUOY B41010 ABOUT 90 NAUTICAL MILES >SOUTHWEST OF THE CENTRE CONTINUES TO MEASURE NORTHERLY GUSTS TO >HURRICANE FORCE IN THIS DEEP CONVECTION. SFMR AND DROPSONDE DATA >INDICATE A LARGE AREA OF 55 KNOT WINDS IN THIS CONVECTION TO THE WEST >AS WELL. WATER VAPOUR IMAGERY STILL SHOWS DRY AIR IN THE MID AND UPPER >LEVELS WELL WITHIN THE CIRCULATION TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF SANDY'S >CENTRE. > >SANDY TOOK A WOBBLE TO THE EAST THIS MORNING BUT THE LONGER TERM >MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 030 DEGREES AT 8 KNOTS. AIRCRAFT RECONNAISSANCE >DATA THIS MORNING INDICATED THAT SANDY HAD REGAINED HURRICANE >STRENGTH. IN ADDITION THE WIND >FIELD CONTINUES TO GET LARGER AS MEASURED BY THE AIRCRAFT DATA AND >BUOY B41010. > > >B. PROGNOSTIC > >GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR SANDY TO ACCELERATE >NORTHEASTWARD TONIGHT AHEAD OF A DEEP LAYER TROUGH MOVING INTO THE >EASTERN UNITED STATES. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH >THIS >DEEP LAYER TROUGH LATE SUNDAY AND CAUSE SANDY TO TAKE A TURN TO THE >NORTHWEST TOWARD THE US EAST COAST. SANDY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT OR >NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH UNTIL MONDAY. PHASE SPACE PROGNOSIS INDICATES >THAT ALTHOUGH SANDY WILL BE RECEIVING BAROCLINIC INFLUENCE FROM THE >WEST, THE STORM WILL MAINTAIN A WARM CORE UNTIL IT MOVES INLAND. LATE >MONDAY NIGHT OR EARLY TUESDAY MORNING SANDY IS EXPECTED TO GO INLAND >AS A LARGE POWERFUL CYCLONE WHILE BECOMING POST-TROPICAL. > >ON TUESDAY, GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT POST-TROPICAL SANDY WILL >BECOME CAPTURED BY THE UPPER TROUGH AS IT MOVES FARTHER INLAND IN THE >UNITED STATES. POST-TROPICAL SANDY IS THEN EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AND MOVE >SLOWLY NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD, REACHING SOUTHERN ONTARIO BY THURSDAY >MORNING. THE REMNANTS OF SANDY WILL BE GREATLY WEAKENED AND WILL THEN >SLOWLY MOVE NORTHEASTWARD WITH THE UPPER LOW. IT IS IMPORTANT TO NOTE >THAT THE BIGGEST IMPACTS IN CANADA FROM SANDY WILL OCCUR WELL BEFORE >THE CENTRE MOVES INTO CANADA. IN FACT THE STORM WILL LIKELY BE GREATLY >WEAKENED BEFORE ENTERING CANADA. > >VERY STRONG WINDS AND AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN ARE EXPECTED IN PARTS OF >SOUTHERN ONTARIO AND QUEBEC LATE MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS POST-TROPICAL >SANDY APPROACHES. FARTHER NORTH AND WEST SOME SNOW IS LIKELY >ESPECIALLY OVER HIGHER ELEVATIONS. IN ADDITION, GUSTY WINDS AND RAIN >CAN BE EXPECTED IN PARTS OF THE MARITIMES ON TUESDAY AS A BAND OF RAIN >MOVES NORTHWARD WELL TO THE NORTHEAST OF SANDY'S CENTRE. > > >C. PREDICTED WIND RADII (NM) > >TIME GALES STORMS HURRICANE > NE SE SW NW NE SE SW NW NE SE SW NW >27/18Z 390 225 205 280 40 55 135 130 0 0 90 30 >28/06Z 375 285 270 280 65 110 150 150 0 0 90 90 >28/18Z 360 315 300 300 85 135 160 160 0 30 90 90 >29/06Z 360 345 315 330 110 155 175 170 0 30 90 90 >29/18Z 360 360 280 250 140 170 130 130 0 30 50 50 >30/06Z 360 360 175 100 180 190 50 50 0 0 0 0 >30/18Z 360 360 120 100 100 100 0 0 0 0 0 0 >31/06Z 360 360 120 30 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 >31/18Z 200 200 100 100 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 >01/06Z 50 50 50 50 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 > > >END/COUTURIER/HATT > >-- > > * * * * > > > > > >---------- >You are receiving this bulletin because you are subscribed to an >electronic mailing list. For more information or to change your >subscription please visit: http://rac.eton.ca/racbullemail.htm