>Date: Sun, 14 Oct 2012 21:57:11 -0400 >From: rac-bulletins@xxxxxxx >Subject: [RAC-Bulletin] [EMCOMM] - WOCN31 CWHX 150141 TROPICAL STORM RAFAEL >To: Steve Cutway VE3KC <ve3kc@xxxxxx> >Reply-to: rachq@xxxxxx >Organization: Radio Amateurs of Canada >List-Unsubscribe: <mailto:rac-bulletins-leave@xxxxxxx?subject=unsubscribe> >List-Id: <rac-bulletins@xxxxxxx> >User-Agent: Mozilla/5.0 (Windows NT 5.1; rv:15.0) Gecko/20120907 > Thunderbird/15.0.1 >Original-recipient: rfc822;ve3kc@xxxxxxxxx > > > >WOCN31 CWHX 150141 >TROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION STATEMENT ISSUED BY THE CANADIAN >HURRICANE CENTRE OF ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT 10:41 PM ADT SUNDAY >14 OCTOBER 2012. >--------------------------------------------------------------------- >TROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION STATEMENT FOR: >=NEW= NEWFOUNDLAND. > > FOR TROPICAL STORM RAFAEL. > > THE NEXT STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY 3:00 AM ADT. > > TROPICAL STORM RAFAEL EXPECTED TO TRACK TOWARD EASTERN ATLANTIC > CANADA. > >--------------------------------------------------------------------- >==DISCUSSION== >WE ARE MONITORING THE DEVELOPMENT OF TROPICAL STORM RAFAEL NORTH OF >PUERTO RICO. THE STORM IS FORECAST TO TRACK TOWARD THE >NORTH-NORTHWEST THEN TURN NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD ON TUESDAY PASSING NEAR >BERMUDA. BEYOND TUESDAY THE TRACK AND INTENSITY WILL BE DETERMINED >BY THE SPEED AND STRUCTURE OF AN EASTWARD-MOVING TROUGH OF LOW >PRESSURE. COMPUTER MODEL SCENARIOS AT THIS POINT EXPRESS A RANGE OF >TRACKS FROM JUST EAST OF CAPE BRETON TO WELL OFFSHORE SOUTHEAST OF >NEWFOUNDLAND. THE MIDDLE OF THE RANGE IS FOR A TRACK CLOSE TO THE >AVALON PENINSULA. A TRACK ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THAT RANGE WOULD >REPRESENT AN EARLIER ARRIVAL (EARLY WEDNESDAY) WHILE A FARTHER-EAST >TRACKING WITH THE STORM WELL OFFSHORE WOULD PRIMARILY AFFECT THE >MARINE DISTRICT OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. > >REGARDLESS OF TRACK, RAFAEL WILL MOST LIKELY BE UNDERGOING TRANSITION >TO A POST-TROPICAL STORM WITH HIGH WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL AS IT >MERGES WITH THE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED FRONT. HOWEVER, IT IS TOO >EARLY TO PREDICT THE SPECIFIC AREAS THAT MAY BE AFFECTED. >ADDITIONALLY, PERIODS OF RAIN AND SOME WIND WILL BE OCCURRING ACROSS >ATLANTIC CANADA ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY FROM A NON-TROPICAL LOW >PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH THAT WILL BE AFFECTING THE >EVOLUTION OF RAFAEL. > >THE CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTRE WILL LIKELY BEGIN OFFICIAL 6-HOURLY >BULLETINS MONDAY MORNING WITH MORE DETAILS. > >VISIT WEATHEROFFICE.GC.CA/HURRICANE (ALL IN LOWER CASE) FOR THE >LATEST HURRICANE TRACK INFORMATION MAP. > >END/.. > > > > >-- > > * * * * > > > > > >---------- >You are receiving this bulletin because you are subscribed to an >electronic mailing list. For more information or to change your >subscription please visit: http://rac.eton.ca/racbullemail.htm