[badgerstatevolunteers] Fwd: FW: When Gold Becomes Money Again
- From: kevin Joyner <joynerkev@xxxxxxxxx>
- To: badgerstatevolunteers@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
- Date: Tue, 5 Apr 2011 16:42:18 -0500
---------- Forwarded message ----------
From: G.Chase <gchase@z****.com>
Date: Tue, Apr 5, 2011 at 9:31 AM
Subject: FW: When Gold Becomes Money Again
To: gchase@******.com
This brings up some good points on changes going on globally on fiat
currencies, gold and what is facing the new world order. This paper
sometimes hypes this stuff, but there are clear trends.
Allot to consider.
Gene
*From:* Damual4 [mailto:damual4@****com]
*Sent:* Tuesday, April 05, 2011 6:54 AM
*To:* GChase@*****.com
*Subject:* Fwd: When Gold Becomes Money Again
-----Original Message-----
From: The Daily Reckoning <dr@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
To: damual4@****.com
Sent: Wed, Mar 30, 2011 4:33 pm
Subject: When Gold Becomes Money Again
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*The Daily Reckoning** | Wednesday, March 30, 2011*
- Being prepared for when the pendulum swings back to the gold
standard...
- The voices of dissent continue as civil unrest spreads to Syria...
- Plus, Bill Bonner on the weather in LA, and whether the people there
are "oke" with going broke...
-------------------------------------------------------
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[image: Dots]
From Tunisia to Syria
*Tracing the Path of Social Upheaval Across the Middle East and North Africa
*
[image: Joel Bowman]
Joel Bowman
*Reporting from Buenos Aires, Argentina...*
Are you watching all this, Fellow Reckoner? Now it's Syria's turn on the
hotplate. Has the world gone mad? More to the point, was it ever sane to
begin with? In any case, it is a breathtaking show put on for all the world
to watch. Who would want to miss it? What a time to be alive!
But before we get too carried away, before we get into the juicy details,
let's just take a step back for a moment. This period of history is so
brimming with events to inspire laughter and sorrow and everything in
between. We want to be sure we give each case their just deserts.
Let's start where all good tales of intrigue start, at the beginning...
Imagine you're a down-on-your-luck, 26-year old college grad unable to find
work in Tunisia. Your friends all have similar problems, so it's no use
crying to them...you've got to earn some cash of your own. So, what do you
do? How about making a little on the side selling some fruit and veg? Sounds
like a viable plan, eh?
Nope. No dice. When the local authorities confiscated Mohamed Bouazizi's
produce (for selling without a street license) back in December, the young
Tunisian was so angry he promptly set himself on fire. Overreaction? Well,
self-immolation might not be the first thought that pops into most people's
heads, but what do we know? We're not an out of work 26-year old Tunisian
college grad trying to make a buck. And we haven't had the bulbous thumb of
an oppressive dictator on our head since we were a baby.
In any case, the event awakened a long-dormant undercurrent of anger,
precipitating a wave of civil unrest that eventually took down the Tunisian
government, ending the multi-decade authoritarian rule of US- backed
president, Zine El Abidine Ben Ali. And this was just the beginning. Soon
after the crowds in Tunisia began singing their songs of freedom, the tune
spread to Egypt, Libya and across the Red Sea to Yemen, Saudi Arabia, Jordan
and beyond.
Freedom, after all, is a catchy tune.
And now we see that Syria's House of Assad is on the back foot. The Assad
family have been ruling the roost for four decades. That, for much of
Syria's young population, is more than their entire lifetime. According to
the figures, approximately one-third of Syria's 23 million people are under
14 years of age. That makes for a lot of teenage angst in the very near
future.
Iran's chief Arab ally may be, as *The Wall Street Journal* puts it, "a
latecomer to the spring of Muslim discontent," but it is wasting no time
making up for its tardy arrival. According to some human rights groups, more
than 60 people have been killed as security forces cracked down on the
demonstrations spreading around the country.
In his first public speech since revolts began there almost two weeks ago,
Syrian President Bashar Assad blamed "conspirators" for the violence washing
over his (for now) land, for what the papers are calling an "extraordinary
wave of dissent against his authoritarian rule."
As usual, the papers have got it all front-to-back. There is nothing
"extraordinary" about slaves rising up against oppressive masters. They
always rise up...eventually. What is most extraordinary, at least to our
thinking, is how long people will take it on the chin before saying "enough
is enough," before they bring their gloves up, either to defend
themselves...or to land a counterpunch.
"We don't seek battles," Assad said in a televised speech on Wednesday,
before adding, somewhat provocatively, "But if a battle is imposed on us
today, we welcome it."
If the people are unhappy in Syria, if they are longing for freedom across
the Middle East, they were a long time silent about it. Brutal regimes have
been running the place for decades. Then again, stealth is oppression's best
weapon; it creeps in slowly, like a silent, invisible, lethal gas. Good
people stand aside and do nothing and then, before you know it, you wake up
one day to find half the population being forced to dress in cloth bags and
the other half too stupefied and/or terrified to do anything about it.
We have no idea whether Mr. Bouazizi is destined to become the Archduke
Ferdinand of the 21st century, or how many militaristically enthusiastic
nations will find the conflicts in that troubled part of the world too
irresistible to refrain from joining. We do know, however, that repressed
anger is generally not a healthy thing...not for individuals, and *certainly
* not for entire generations of young men and women with a spark of freedom
in their hearts.
It is curious, then, that the various goings on in the Middle East (and
North Africa...and Japan...and along Europe's periphery) barely inspire a
whimper from the markets. Not even the scalawag shenanigans concocted in the
oak-paneled halls of government buildings in Washington DC raise a
questioning eyebrow from the mainstream media. The Dow Jones Industrial
Average is still cruising, as if on autopilot, some 800 points above where
it began the year. Neither manmade nor natural disasters seem capable of
disturbing its terminally ascendant flight pattern.
But, not unlike the stealthy creep of oppression, market crashes tend to
remain unseen too...until the moment they become all-too obvious, when it is
already too late.
"But that doesn't mean investors should fail to prepare for financial
calamities...or the demise of paper currencies," writes Addison in today's
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*The Daily Reckoning** Presents*
When Gold Becomes Money Again
[image: AddisonWiggin]
AddisonWiggin
On the night our documentary *I.O.U.S.A.* made its nationwide premiere in
August 2008, the film was followed up by a live panel discussion, broadcast
via satellite. Our friend David Walker, the former US comptroller general
and "star" of the film, took part...along with several other luminaries.
At one point, the question was asked: Might America's trading partners one
day sell off their US Treasury holdings?
Impossible, said Warren Buffett. In fact, he insisted, they
couldn't...because they'd need to convert it into some other currency, which
would be little better than the dollar. No one else chimed in to challenge
the assertion.
"Buffett's answer assumes that there is no alternative," author, friend and
local Baltimore resident Bill Baker writes in his 2009 book *Endless Money:
The Moral Hazards of Socialism*, "because for generations, all the world's
currencies have been backed only by the promise that governments would
accept them in payment of taxes.
"But that ignores a currency that has been used effectively by man for
thousands of years: gold. China and other countries might exchange their US
dollars for it now."
Indeed, China is quietly building its gold reserves. They totaled 600 metric
tons in 2004. Then in April 2009 came an announcement they'd grown to 1,054
metric tons. And the buzz from Beijing is that the central bankers want to
grow that stash another tenfold.
Meanwhile, China has trimmed its US Treasury holdings for three months in a
row. The January total was $1.15 trillion - down 1.75% from October.
These are the first steps toward what Baker sees as the "remonetization" of
gold - coming soon to a country near you.
History is a pendulum.
"Once gold and silver had been written into the Constitution," Baker says,
"no one might have thought that it would be replaced by paper within 60
years." But the pendulum swung, the Union issuing its infamous greenbacks
during the Civil War.
Then the pendulum swung back, the greenbacks' critics were "able to
successfully push for an agenda of gold resumption. But before the London
Economic Conference of 1933, the world would be shocked by Roosevelt's
rejection of the gold standard." The pendulum swung again.
Now, "a series of crises such as was the case in Rome might ultimately bring
the pendulum back toward gold," Baker writes.
In other words, we're approaching the end of the Great Dollar Standard we
wrote about in *The Demise of the Dollar*. The only world anyone below the
age of 40 has ever known - in which all the world's currencies float freely
against each other - is nearly over.
And Baker is investing accordingly.
In late 2010, he began accumulating shares of a tiny gold miner called
Orezone. "Our cost basis is 78 cents, and now it's $3.61," Baker tells us on
a wintry afternoon in his office on the outskirts of Baltimore. "I've sold
off two-thirds of the shares that I own, and it's still one of our largest
positions. I can't keep it down!"
It's a good problem to have. And Baker has it because he's willing to go
further afield than your typical money manager...as far afield as Burkina
Faso.
We'll pause here to place it on a map, so you can get your bearings. (If you
were a geography geek growing up, you might remember it as Upper Volta.)
"I read these other quarterlies from these hedge fund managers," Baker tells
us, surrounded by family pictures, CDs of composers like Brahms and rafts of
company research. "They'll get really absorbed in the macroeconomic picture,
but they don't really know what they're doing, so they just buy GLD [the
gold ETF].
"Or they'll hire two all-star Canadian analysts. Then I look at what they
own, and they own Gabriel Resources because John Paulson owns it. It's safe.
Or they bought some big South African company because it's cheap based on
reserves in the ground when they ran it through their stock screener.
"They don't have a coherent philosophy about really kicking the tires and
really finding these companies that people don't know about."
Baker does. His firm, Gaineswood Investment Management, has taken sizeable
positions in tiny gold miners working well off the beaten paths of the
Americas, Australia and South Africa.
Burkina Faso is smack in the middle of a geological formation called the
Birimian Trend...the richest source of growth for gold miners in recent
years.
Even better is how many miners in West Africa have consolidated their
holdings. "In Canada, you might have a district filled up with 12 companies.
One company might have each block, or half a block. But in West Africa,
these guys own all of it. They've got a lot of time, a lot of land, and now
they've raised a lot more money, so they can keep going after it...and we'll
keep getting these upside surprises.
"That's our philosophy, to find opportunity where, for example, this one
outfit has found 1.2 million ounces of gold. But with all the new
discoveries they're making, they'll probably come out and say we have 2,
2.5, and next year they'll say, well, we have 3, 3.5, 4... and it isn't over
yet, because of this whole giant region that's been unexplored."
Before we go any further, we'd better make something clear: Bill Baker isn't
your typical gold bug. Nor is he your typical stock market bear.
"The timing or eventuality of financial calamity is unable to be forecast,"
Baker writes in *Endless Money*. "At best, it might be like a hurricane
warning: The tempest may strike here, it may hit there, it may be downgraded
to a tropical storm or it may go elsewhere entirely."
But that doesn't mean investors should fail to prepare for financial
calamities...or the demise of paper currencies. Financial calamities are
becoming increasingly likely in this overly indebted world of ours...and the
death of paper currencies is becoming increasingly certain. The best time to
prepare is ahead of time.
Regards,
Addison Wiggin,
for *The Daily Reckoning*
*Joel's Note:* Did you already see Addison's email about Ron Paul's "lost"
gold bible? If not, *you might want to check it out
here*<http://clicks.dailyreckoning.com/t/AQ/AATAxQ/AATLUg/AAOhug/AQ/AWwMxw/Txyt>.
Addison is keen to rush a copy to as many Fellow Reckoners as possible. It's
a 200-page guide that could just save your skin when this monetary house of
cards inevitably comes crashing down. *Again, Details
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[image: Dots]
*Bill Bonner*
Broke in America: The Housing Meltdown Continues
[image: Bill Bonner]
Bill Bonner
*Reckoning from Los Angeles, California...*
*She likes the free, fresh wind in her hair**
Life without care
She's broke, and it's "oke"
Hates California, it's cold and it's damp
That's why the lady is a tramp*
Well, it's not cold and it's not damp. Instead, LA is warm and sunny, with
springtime flowers popping out all over.
And yesterday, the Dow rose 81 points, while the price of gold slipped a
little.
So what else is new?
We never thought we liked LA. But we may change our mind. Daughter Maria
took us around yesterday. We wandered around Venice Beach and then through
Hollywood. The town is much nicer than we remembered it. Many of the houses,
shops and apartment buildings are getting a makeover. They remind us of the
Soho area of Buenos Aires - young, hip, and lively.
"This isn't like the rest of America," Maria explained. "Just drive an hour
to the East and you'll see what we mean. That's the real America. Here, the
town is full of immigrants...pretty girls who want to hit it big in
Hollywood...Russians, French, English...all sorts of girls. And there are a
lot of men...you know, men who take a little too much care of themselves.
You see them at parties. They also have a project. They always have
contacts. They always have a cell phone and spend a lot of time talking. But
nothing ever happens.
"But I love LA. I don't know if I could live anywhere else."
There are a lot of girls with the fresh wind in their hair here...
And a lot of people who are broke. Whether it is "oke" or not...we don't
know.
But here's the latest on America's housing meltdown:
*AP - Damage from the housing bust is spreading to areas once thought to be
immune.*
*In at least 14 major US metro areas, prices have fallen to 2003 levels -
when the housing bubble was just starting to inflate. Prices will likely
drop further this year, making many people reluctant to buy or sell. That
would push down sales and prices more. **
The depressed housing industry is slowing an economy that has shown strength
elsewhere. And it's starting to hurt those who bought years before the
housing boom began. In some cities, people who have paid their mortgages for
a decade have little or no home equity.
Prices have tumbled in familiar troubled spots, such as Las Vegas, Cleveland
and Detroit. But they're also at or near 10-year lows in Denver, Atlanta,
Chicago and Minneapolis - cities that weren't as swept up in the housing
boom and bust.
"It's been tough on the lower class but it's filtering up," said Paul Dales,
senior US economist with Capital Economics. "It may be only a matter of time
before it hits the wealthy."
Just about the only major market weathering the second wave of the housing
downturn is Washington. Home prices there have risen 11 percent in the past
two years.*
A *Daily Reckoning* note: the zombies are doing just fine, thank you. It's
the rest of the nation that suffers. Money flows from the people who earn it
to the protected financial sector...and to the feds themselves. Is it any
wonder that profits in finance are back to their 2007 level? Or that,
overall, debt is now even higher? Or that people in the zombie capital are
actually richer today (thanks to automatic wage hikes in the federal
government, plus property value increases)?
But people in LA? In Chicago? In Dubuque or Baton Rouge?
They're broke.
*And more thoughts...*
Speaking of America's central bank, our colleague in London, John Stepek,
says the Fed is going broke:
Let's start with the balance sheet. A bank's assets are mainly loans made to
individuals, businesses, even governments. Loans are assets because they are
money owed to the bank.
Now let's talk about the other side of the balance sheet - the liabilities.
Most of the money a bank lends to customers comes from money that the bank
itself borrows. It can borrow from you and me through the savings we
deposit. It may also borrow from companies that place cash on deposit. And
the bank may borrow from investors - insurance companies, pension funds,
even other banks. All of these are liabilities - debts the bank owes to
someone else.
The other main item on the liabilities side is capital. Suppose the bank
collected all the money owed by the borrowers. And then repaid all the money
it owes. Capital is the money left over. It is the bank's true value.
The balance sheet must always balance. So capital + debt = assets.
Banks make money by lending at higher interest rates than they pay to
borrow. Borrowers want long-term loans, usually at fixed interest rates. On
the other hand, depositors want easy (short-term) access. And depositors
often prefer variable interest rates.
So this is the crucial role banks play in the economy. They take short- term
variable rate savings, and recycle them into longer-term, fixed- rate loans.
And this is where the problems of the world's third-largest bank start.
How a bank goes bust
From the point of view of a bank, when interest rates rise, the value of a
fixed-rate loan falls. The bank receives less income from that fixed-rate
loan than it could now get elsewhere.
And interest rates on US ten-year government bonds have indeed been rising.
Since last August, they've risen by about one percentage point.
Now, accounting rules dictate what happens next. Under certain conditions,
banks must mark down the value of these loans. That's called "marking to
market". And when it happens, capital also falls - otherwise the balance
sheet doesn't balance any more.
But the world's third-largest bank doesn't follow the same accounting rules
as every other bank. It refuses to restate the value of its assets. That's
why they're surely worth less than the reported figure. In fact, if I'm
right, the bank has no capital left. It has zero value. It's bust.
I can't prove this. But here's why I think I'm right.
$1.14 trillion (45%) of this bank's assets are fixed-rate loans of ten years
or more. Let's suppose the ten-year bonds pay interest of 4%. If the yield
rises to 5%, the price falls by about 8% (bond prices fall as yields rise).
If yields rise to 6%, the price falls by 16%.
I don't know exactly when the bank made these loans. So I don't know the
current yields or prices. But I do know that US government bond yields have
risen by one percentage point since last August. And I think they'll keep
going up.
So it's a fair bet that the bank's ten-year loans are worth less than it
paid for them. An 8% loss on $1.14 trillion is $91 billion. And that
excludes any losses on the $1.41 trillion of shorter loans that it holds,
which are also affected.
This bank has been lending like the credit crunch never happened
Of course, bank capital (as well as loss reserves) is designed to cushion
against such losses. Since the credit crisis, most banks have reduced their
lending, boosted reserves and raised more capital.
But not this bank. It carried on lending like the crisis never happened.
Worse still, it has no loan loss reserves. And it's not raised a cent of
extra capital.
Want to guess how much capital the bank holds against its $2.55 trillion in
assets? $53 billion. That's just 2% of total assets. So a 2% fall in the
value of those assets would wipe out every last dollar of capital. So it may
already be insolvent. If not, it soon will be.
Have you guessed which bank I'm talking about? It's the US Federal Reserve
Bank itself.
The Fed is bust - and that's not just my opinion
I'm serious. It may be the US central bank, but it's still a bank like all
the rest.
Most of its assets are US government bonds, bought as part of its
quantitative easing (QE) programmes.
Its liabilities include about $1 trillion of notes and coins in circulation.
There are also $1.4 trillion of deposits owing to US commercial banks, which
are required to hold reserves at the Fed. There are also some deposits owed
to the US Treasury. And there's $53 billion in capital.
So the Fed can go bust just like any other bank. And I'm not the only one
saying it. William Ford, a former president of the Atlanta Federal Reserve,
one of the 12 member banks of the Fed itself, broke ranks to warn about it
on 11 January.
Ford points out that the Fed can hide insolvency because it does not mark
its assets to market. So we'll only know that it's bust when it sells some
bonds. Only then would it have to take the losses from selling them for less
than it paid.
Of course, the Fed going bust would be very embarrassing. So you can be sure
it will be quietly bailed out behind closed doors. In fact, if the bailout
is timed to coincide with the losses, we might not even notice.
Who will bail out the Fed?
Why does this matter to you? Well, guess who would rescue the Fed? The US
Treasury, a department of the US government, would have to inject extra
capital to restore solvency. But the US government is not exactly flush
these days.
So how would they get the money? They'd issue more bonds. And the Fed would
buy them as part of its QE programme.
So let's be clear. The Fed goes bust. So it lends money to the US government
(i.e. it buys US bonds), and the US Treasury gives it back to the Fed as
capital. So the Fed is printing money to bail itself out. What do you think
this will do for investor confidence in the US government and the dollar?
I'm pretty sure that the value of US Treasury bonds and the dollar will be
worth less afterwards. And that's why you should have 8-12% of your
portfolio in gold. It is sound money in an era when most currencies are not.
It is insurance against further debasement of paper money.
Regards,
Bill Bonner
for *The Daily Reckoning*
-------------------------------------------------------
Here at *The Daily Reckoning*, we value your questions and comments. If you
would like to send us a few thoughts of your own, please address them to
your managing editor at *joel@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx* <joel@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
[image: Dots]
*[image: The Bonner Diaries]*
*[image: The Mogambo Guru]*
*[image: The D.R. Extras!]*
*How Inflation is Preventing a Real Economic
Recovery*<http://clicks.dailyreckoning.com/t/AQ/AATAxQ/AATLUg/AAOhvA/AQ/AWwMxw/xfUb>
Of course, one swallow does not a springtime make. And maybe these early
birds of inflation will prove to be loners. We won’t know for a while. But
prices on energy, food, and auction-priced goods are definitely going up.
And as they go up, consumers are left with less spending power. Instead of
encouraging the real economy forward, inflation is pushing it back.
*Printing Money to Save the
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I keep pounding, pounding, pounding the table that silver is the biggest
bargain out there, for, at last count, a jillion reasons, and that anybody
who does not buy silver Right Freaking Now (RFN) is making the mistake of a
lifetime, and the family is all, like, “Will you please stop pounding the
table? It is irritating and is making things spill, aside from the fact that
we don’t have any money with which to buy silver...”
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*Interest Rate Differentials Drive the Currency
Markets*<http://clicks.dailyreckoning.com/t/AQ/AATAxQ/AATLUg/AAOhvg/AQ/AWwMxw/EUZi>
Even though this month has been one of the most volatile with the Japanese
earthquake and wars in the Middle East, the currency markets are settling
back into a familiar pattern. Interest rate differentials are again in the
driver’s seat, and “risk” trades are riding shotgun, forcing safe haven
trades into the back seat. The best performing currencies in the past 24
hours were the commodity currencies...
*Buying Silver and Avoiding the
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*Fed Splits on Need for More Quantitative
Easing*<http://clicks.dailyreckoning.com/t/AQ/AATAxQ/AATLUg/AAOe1g/AQ/AWwMxw/YdtL>
[image: Dots]
------------------------------
*The Daily Reckoning: *Now in its 11th year, *The Daily Reckoning* is the
flagship e-letter of Baltimore-based financial research firm and publishing
group Agora Financial, a subsidiary of Agora Inc. *The Daily
Reckoning*provides over half a million subscribers with literary
economic perspective,
global market analysis, and contrarian investment ideas. Published daily in
six countries and three languages, each issue delivers a feature-length
article by a senior member of our team and a guest essay from one of many
leading thinkers and nationally acclaimed columnists.
*Cast of Characters:*
Bill Bonner
<http://clicks.dailyreckoning.com/t/AQ/AATAxQ/AATLUg/AAJNLQ/AQ/AWwMxw/3FU9>
Founder
Addison Wiggin
<http://clicks.dailyreckoning.com/t/AQ/AATAxQ/AATLUg/AAJQsQ/AQ/AWwMxw/6PMl>
Publisher
Eric Fry
<http://clicks.dailyreckoning.com/t/AQ/AATAxQ/AATLUg/AAJQsg/AQ/AWwMxw/IwCV>Editorial
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--
Kevin J
====================
“Far Better it is to Dare Mighty Things than to take rank with those poor,
timid spirits Who know Neither Victory nor Defeat.”
Theodore Roosevelt
"I was not delivered unto this world in defeat,
nor does failure course in my veins. I am not a
sheep waiting to be prodded by my shepherd. I
am a lion and I refuse to talk, to walk, to sleep
with the sheep. I will hear not those who weep
and complain, for their disease is contagious. Let
them join the sheep. The slaughterhouse of failure
is not my destiny.
Other related posts:
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