From Dave's company, Ursa Major Technologies...
Jon
On Sep 26, 2016 12:20 PM, "Henry Vanderbilt" <hvanderbilt@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
wrote:
Flight-qualified, suited to the application, ready to go? From who?
On 9/26/2016 10:56 AM, David Gregory wrote:
Or buy a 5klbf lox-kero engine.
On Sep 26, 2016, at 10:44 AM, Henry Vanderbilt <
hvanderbilt@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx> wrote:
The overall time and finance seem realistic, leaving aside the question
of market.
One caution: "Qualify for flight as stage 1 within 3 years" for a 5Klbf
liquid biprop engine is IMO unduly optimistic at 4 team members and $3m in
funding. There's a significant difference (too often minimized by
ambitious publicists) between getting a prototype rocket chamber visibly
working on a pressure-fed test stand, and a flight-qualified integrated
propulsion system built around that chamber.
The former might be done in a year with four team members and $1
million, but achieving the latter in another two years will likely take
somewhere between 3x and 10X the money and team size.
The actual multiplier depends on the complexity of the desired engine
(pump or pressure-fed? high-margin rugged or ultra-high performance?), the
precise interpretation of "flight qualified" (how much remaining
uncertainty is tolerable determines how much testing over how wide a range
of conditions is needed), and to some degree on luck.
A note on luck in rocket development programs: Managers who refuse to
depend on it will increase predicted cost and schedule modestly - and
reduce actual cost and schedule greatly more often than not.
Henry
On 9/25/2016 7:47 AM, Max Haot wrote:
First goal: Build a ~5,000 lbf LOx/RP-1 engine, qualify for flight as
stage 1 within 3 years. Config - 4 team members, $3mm in funding lasting
3 years. Key assumptions (a) it's all about the team and engine - we
have to prove this first (b) there's no rush, demand for LOE access will
still be there in 10 years.
Sequential goal 2 would be to reach commercial operation for small
payload to LOE within 10 years of founding. Likely 100 team members
build up, $200mm in funding for this second phase. Funding would occur
in 2019 for this phase - investment climate and team/external proof
points expected to be very strong by then.
This is early days - building the team and validating assumptions before
starting the $3mm fundraising process for the first goal.
Looking for anyone interested to meet to educate, validate/shoot down
assumptions or most importantly knows of potential team members in NYC
area I should speak to. Contact me at max [at] haot.nyc <
http://haot.nyc>
Thanks.
Max
