[TN-Bird] cerulean warbler blues

From: "Stephen J. Stedman" <sstedman@xxxxxxxxxx>
To: "birdky" <birdky@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Date: Mon, 7 Jun 2004 13:07:36 -0500
For the past decade I have conducted a short breeding
bird survey for the U. S. Forest Service on Wolf Knob Rd.
in the Daniel Boone Nat. Forest, Whitley and McCreary
counties, Kentucky. The numbers of Cerulean Warblers I
have recorded during eleven surveys (of 24 stops each)
follow:
1994--25
1995--25
1996--34
1997--26
1998--21
1999--22
2000--15
2001--18
2002--23
2003--19
2004--14

During those same years, 1994-2004, I have conducted
a less formal survey of Cerulean Warblers in Frozen
Head State Natural Area, Morgan County, Tenneesse.
I walk a 16-km loop in the park, counting all birds, but
especially Cerulean Warblers, seen and heard.  Numbers
of Cerulean Warblers counted on this survey during those
years follow:

1994--106
1995--87
1996--85
1997--85
1998--46
1999--73
2000--53
2001--59
2002--60
2003--52
2004--43

I see a similar trend in each of these datasets, and the
trends correspond moderately well with the trend in Cerulean
Warbler numbers reported on federal Breeding Bird Surveys,
where an annual deline of >3% is reported for the species.

Listing of Cerulean Warbler under the Endangered Species
Act may not reverse the negative trend in its population
numbers, but it is a step in the right direction.  Therefore,
I predict it will be at least another decade before the
species is listed; by then the species may well be 
truly endangered in the two places noted above and
chances for reversing its overall decline close to nil.

Steve Stedman
Cookeville, Tennessee
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[TN-Bird] cerulean warbler blues

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