The Daily Shot - 7/29/14

  • From: "The Daily Shot" <thedailyshotletter@xxxxxxxxx>
  • To: <thedailyshot@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
  • Date: Tue, 29 Jul 2014 23:43:38 -0400

Greetings,

 

The impact of EU/US sanctions on Russia was clearly visible in the markets
today. Energy services and equipment firms quickly came under pressure. 

 

Baker Hughes shares (blue) vs S&P500 (red)



 

These sanctions will be particularly painful for the EU, shaving some 0.3%
from the GDP in 2014 and 0.4% in 2015. Eurozone bonds rallied in response
with yields hitting new lows (many touching all-time lows). 

 





 

At least superficially, the Eurozone is increasingly looking like Japan. 

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All this geopolitical uncertainty is starting to impact US consumer
confidence. While the monthly sentiment data has consumer confidence at
post-recession highs, a weekly survey showed a sharp dip.

 



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Scotiabank sent out another warning that the buying of treasury notes and
bonds (excl. bills) has been dominated by the Fed. When QE ends treasuries
my become more vulnerable to a selloff. For now the market is ignoring all
this.

 

"RoW" = Rest of World, "All others" = households, dealers, pensions, etc.



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Tech firms increasingly use bond financing, as the market can't get enough
corporate paper. Global tech bond issuance hit a new record.



Source: Dealogic

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Here is today's food for thought: the latest projections on key entitlement
funds in the US .

 



  _____  

 

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