[patriots] FW: [North_Maine_63733637] Re: Rich Benefits of Open Borders: US Has 18% Chance of Ebola Outbreak By the End of the Month, UK 25-28%

From: annette rose smith <annette-rose-smith@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
To: "patriots@xxxxxxxxxxxxx" <patriots@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Date: Fri, 5 Sep 2014 22:23:03 +0100
 
 
To: eaif_group-owner@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
From: North_Maine_63733637@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Date: Fri, 5 Sep 2014 10:19:07 -0700
Subject: [North_Maine_63733637] Re: Rich Benefits of Open Borders: US Has 18% 
Chance of Ebola Outbreak By the End of the Month, UK 25-28%














 

 



  


    
      
      
      
The real report:
http://currents.plos.org/outbreaks/article/assessing-the-international-spreading-risk-associated-with-the-2014-west-african-ebola-outbreak/

On Sep 5, 2014, at 10:16 AM, James Sanchez wrote:

http://www.kirotv.com/news/news/study-simulates-likelihood-ebola-spread/nhGRg/Study
 simulates likelihood of Ebola spread> MoreEbola outbreak factsView Larger 
Stock image via Getty ImagesSpecial Section: Ebola VirusBy Matt Picht
                    Video transcript provided by Newsy.com
                
SAN FRANCISCO — As
 the Ebola epidemic in West Africa continues to worsen at an alarming 
rate, health officials have issued increasingly dire warnings about the 
possibility of a global outbreak.
"Six
 months into the worst Ebola epidemic in history, the world is losing 
the battle to contain it," Doctors Without Borders International 
President Joanne Liu said to PBS.
"Every
 day this outbreak goes on, it increases the risk for another export to 
another country," CDC Director Tom Frieden said to CNN:
Now, a new analysis published this week in PLOS Currents: Outbreaks has shed 
some light on the possibility of Ebola traveling outside of West Africa.
>> More popular and trending stories
Using
 WHO data, researchers simulated potential situations where Ebola could 
spread to other countries by studying air traffic patterns and mobility 
between infected and non-infected countries. They ran simulations on two
 dates, Sept. 1 and Sept. 22. Their predictions show a sharp increase in
 the probability of another country getting infected. At the beginning 
of the month, the U.S. had only a five percent chance of importing an 
outbreak. By the 22nd, the probability jumps up to 18 percent. (Video via Voice 
of America)
"What
 is happening in West Africa is going to get here. We can't escape that 
at this point. ... Sooner or later, they will arrive," Alessandro 
Vespignani, the study's author, told NPR.
Now,
 there are a couple of important caveats to the researchers' 
findings. For one thing, an Ebola case reaching a developed country with
 an efficient healthcare system probably won't cause the mass epidemic 
levels we've seen in Liberia, Guinea and Sierra Leone. What's more, the 
numbers come with a pretty high probability range, so while the U.S. 
could have a 18 percent infection risk at the end of the month, that 
number could also be as low as 1 percent. Contrast that with the U.K., 
which has an infection risk of 25-28 percent by the end of the month. (Video 
via Euronews)
And
 while there haven't been any accidental Ebola exports to the U.S. yet, 
three confirmed Ebola cases have been transported inside the country. Dr. Kent 
Brantly and Nancy Writebol were cured of the virus last month — and a third 
patient, Dr. Rick Sacra, is currently en route to Nebraska after contracting 
Ebola in Liberia.
The
 Ebola outbreak has already claimed more than 1,900 lives—that's more 
than all other previous outbreaks combined. WHO officials estimate 
controlling the spread of the virus could cost over $600 million.




    
     

    
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        Posted by: James Sanchez <seattleplatypus@xxxxxxx>        
     
     

    
      
        
          
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[patriots] FW: [North_Maine_63733637] Re: Rich Benefits of Open Borders: US Has 18% Chance of Ebola Outbreak By the End of the Month, UK 25-28%

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