[patriots] FW: [MRG] Fwd: No. 1 Russia insider expert on the war within Russia
- From: annette rose smith <annette-rose-smith@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
- To: "patriots@xxxxxxxxxxxxx" <patriots@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
- Date: Mon, 15 Sep 2014 16:07:01 +0100
Date: Mon, 15 Sep 2014 10:41:26 +0100
Subject: [MRG] Fwd: No. 1 Russia insider expert on the war within Russia
From: harry.beckhough@xxxxxxxxx
To: clairefordevizes@xxxxxxxxx
---------- Forwarded message ----------
From: DON HANK <zoilandon@xxxxxxx>
Date: 13 September 2014 04:08
Subject: No. 1 Russia insider expert on the war within Russia
To: zoilandon@xxxxxxx
This
report is a gold mine of knowledge about the workings of the Russian state.
Unfortunately, the author is anonymous and also, he constantly uses one
term I am not comfortable with, so I choose to cut and paste. If you read these
reports you will, in my opinion, eventually know more about the inner
workings of the Russian state than anyone in the State Department. Of course,
when you consider the goofus in charge of that tin horn institution, that is
not
saying much.
Don
Hank
Strelkov:
from swimming with Piranhas to swimming with Great White sharks
INTRODUCTION:
Yesterday's
press conference by Strelkov is, I believe, a historical moment because it
marks
the move of Strelkov from the Novorussian military struggle into the much
larger, and far more dangerous struggle, the struggle for the political future
of Russia. This in itself is no necessarily unexpected, but the way he did
it was a surprise, at least for me. But before I zoom out to the bigger
picture, I think that it would be helpful to try to summarize some of the key
points of his presentation (thanks to Marina, you can download the full English
transcript by clicking here
and the Q&A is here).
Here is how I summarized what I saw as the key elements of his
presentation:
External
factors (staging) - symbolic message:
He
is clearly alive and well
The
reason for his departure was infighting inside the Novorussian leadership and
the fact that he was told that supplies would only be delivered if he left.
The
photo of Putin in the back on the wall
He
is sitting behind a Russian monarchist flag on the table (and a Russian and
Novorussian flag in the back (no Soviet or Communists symbols)
His
view about the ceasefire agreement:
This
ceasefire has now created military situation is now worse than this
spring
What
is disgraceful is not the ceasefire by itself but "the conditions which are
now being discussed in Minks"
There
is plan to blame the betrayal of Novorussia on Putin
There
are powerful interests which want a never ending war which would create a
bleeding ulcer for Russia
His
description of the 5th column:
The
roots of this 5th column go back to the Eltsin years
The
liberation of Crimea took the 5th column by surprise
The
5th column is around President
There
is a local 5th column in Donbass which has been and still is negotiating with
Ukie oligarchs
The
5th column is composed of "liberals"
Putin
is a moral threat to them because he has massive popular support
They
want to overthrow Putin
They
want to dismember
Russia
This
will be a long war on Russia
We
are dealing with another 1905 and 1917 like situation
By
saving Novorussia Russia can save itself
Western
sanctions will hurt Russia and they will use them to discredit
Putin
Strelkov's
plans
Strelkov
wants to fight inside Russia in support of Putin (only option)
Strelkov's
main objective is to denounce the real traitors inside Russia
This
is my personal rendition of the key elements of Strelkov's presentation, and I
might have missed or misunderstood something, so I therefore encourage
everybody
to watch
to the video again and read
the transcript.
ZOOMING
OUT TO THE GREATER CONTEXT:
Before
going further into my analysis of Strelkov's statements, I think that it is
crucial to keep the bigger context in mind. His words are not just the
words of a man speaking for the Novorussian Armed Forces (NAF) or a Novorussia
hero, this time Strelkov is diving straight into the big and dangerous world of
Russian "deep state" politics (though the term "deep state" does not really
apply to Russia). So I will now return to a topic I have been covering for
many years now.
Long-time
readers will probably recall that I often spoke of a behind-the-scenes struggle
between what I called the "Eurasian Sovereignists" (ES) and the
"Atlantic Integrationists" (AI). I will not repeat it all
here, but I do encourage you to read the following articles:
http://vineyardsaker.blogspot.com/2013/02/russia-and-islam-part-three-internal.html
http://vineyardsaker.blogspot.com/2013/03/russia-and-islam-part-six-kremlin.html
http://vineyardsaker.blogspot.com/2013/04/the-power-struggle-inside-kremlin-is.html
http://vineyardsaker.blogspot.com/2013/10/1993-2013-is-twenty-years-long-pas-de.html
http://vineyardsaker.blogspot.com/2014/04/a-new-cold-war-has-begun-let-us-embrace.html
The
two first articles are part of a much longer seven-part series on Islam, but
they introduce the historical context of the development of the ES and AI
factions. The next two I would consider mandatory reading if you are not
familiar with the topic and the last one is just a more recent discussion of
the
role of these two factions in the current Cold War v2. Having said that,
my key thesis is this:
The
"5th column" Strelkov refers to are the very same people I call Atlantic
Integrationists.
Strelkov
names no names, but he describes them very accurately (see above) and he adds
that they only value "money and other material resources". They are the
Russian equivalent of the western elitist 1%ers. Their main political goal
is to fully integrate Russia into the Western elitist international system on a
financial, political, economic and cultural levels. They see Russia as
"European" and they believe that "the West" (i.e. the Western elitist Empire)
and Russia need to stand together against Islam, China and any other
non-imperial ideology, religion, nation or alliance. They believe in
capitalism and they are opposed to a "social state" (to use Putin's description
of modern Russia) and they are systematically contemptuous of the "masses"
though they try hard not to show this aspect of their worldview. These are
the folks who gradually took power during the 1980s and who had the predatory
instincts to seize the moment in the early 1990s to rapidly and ruthlessly
acquire an absolutely unimaginable amount of wealth, stolen from the Russian
people.
Now,
it is true that due to an absolutely brilliant move by the Russian
security services during the late 1990s and thanks to the chaos in which Russia
was plunged, these AI (aka 5th columnists) did make a fatal mistake. Their
plan was to put forward a rather uninspiring and dull bureaucrat into power and
surround him by men coming from their own circles. What they did not
foresee is that this rather uninspiring and dull bureaucrat would turn into one
of the most formidable statesmen in Russian history - Putin - and that he would
immediately set out to decapitate the top layers of the AI - the so-called
"oligarchs" and the thugs who enforced their rule - and their armed branch- the
Chechen Wahabi insurgency. Putin acted so fast that he rapidly ended up in
full control of the so-called "power ministries" (state security, presidential
security, internal affairs, armed forces, emergency services) and, which is
crucial, an immense popular support. In a way, this combination of state
power and popular support made Putin untouchable, but that also limited his
power.
While
the top and most notorious AI columnists either left Russia (Berezovsky) or
were
put in jail (Khodorkovsky) or died, the system they had created was still
very much in place. Banking, the natural resources industry, the weapons
trade, financial services and, of course, the media were still very much in
their hands. So when the most arrogant one of them, Khodorkovsky, was
jailed the two factions (ES and AI) achieved something of a compromise, a
temporary ceasefire if you wish. The deal was this: first, as long as they
don't try to take over the Kremlin and generally stay out of politics, the AI
would be allowed to keep their wealth and continue to make huge profits;
second,
the top power would be shared between the ES (Putin, Rogozin, Patrushev, etc.)
and the AI (Medvedev, Kudrin, Surkov, etc.).
The
first big blow which Putin delivered against the AI was the firing of Serdiukov
and, even "worse", his replacement with Shoigu. The second massive blow
was, according to Strelkov (and I agree), the operation to liberate
Crimea. According to Strelkov, this operation was a huge blow to the
interests of these 5th columnist because they immediately realized that it
would
set Russia and the Western elitists on a collision course. They therefore
gathered all their forces to a) prevent a Russian military intervention in the
Donbass and b) make a deal with the oligarchs now in power in Kiev. I
fully share this analysis.
Russian
vs Novorussian strategic interests
Here
comes the tricky part. There are a few assumption made by many bloggers
which are the result of a fundamental flaws in logic:
Russian
and Novorussian interests are one and the same
Anything
supported by the AI is bad for Russia
Putin
is in full control and can do whatever he wants
Novorussian
leaders are always right by virtue of their heroic struggle
Disagreeing
with Novorussian leader is a sign of stupidity, betrayal or dishonesty
(including for Putin himself)
Reality
is not quite that simple. For one thing, Russian and Novorussian interests
are not only one and the same, they are in direct opposition on a crucial
matter: Novorussia wants full independence from Kiev (whoever is in
power) while Russia wants regime change in Kiev and maintain a unitary
Ukraine. Second, while the fact that Russian and Ukrainian oligarchs
are trying to hammer out a deal to stop the war and maintain a unitary Ukraine
this might or might not be bad for Russia. Now, before I get
accused of God only knows what, let me explain:
During
the late 1980s and the 1990s a bizarre kind of "partial fusion" took place
between the Russian mob and the KGB. I know, sounds crazy, but it is
nonetheless true and yours truly has personally seen it and personally met
ex-KGB officers working in the Russian mob. However, as some say, there is
no such thing as an "ex-KGB" officer. Well, in reality there is, but in
most cases, at least informal contacts are maintained. So here is how I
would very roughly summarize this bizarre association:
In
the 1980s: corrupt KGB officers realize that a lot of money can be made
in the underworld and some official of the internal security branch of the KGB
(2nd Main Directorate) found ways to profit from tight contacts with the
mob.
In
the early 1990: a lot of young and smart KGB officers realize that their
skills are useless in the KGB, they resign and immediately find very good
positions in the "New Russian" world (at that time 100% mobsters) and use their
skills (language, education, work capability, courage) to make loads of
money
These
were terrible years for the KGB/FSB, but they also had one positive impact: the
more corrupt and less patriotic officers left leaving many idealists behind
them, idealists which would, with time, climb up the ranks.
Now
here comes the really interesting part:
In
the mid 1990s-2000: the successor to the KGB, the SVR and FSB came to
realize that they had a fantastic network of potential collaborators in the
newly created world of Russian business, finance, commerce, tourism, etc.
They act on this and begin use this mostly "ex-mob now turned legit"
worldwide network for state security purposes and industrial/commercial
espionage. Even the military intelligence service, the GRU, begins to
do the same with ex-officers now working in aerospace, electronics,
communications, etc.
[Off-topic
but interesting sidebar: there is another most valuable network which the
SVR/FSB/GRU also began to use during this period: the huge number of Jews from
Russia who emigrated to the USA and Israel. Keep that in mind when you
think about Russian-Israeli relations]
2000-today:
Putin and his backers begin their behind the scenes secret but ruthless war on
the Atlantic Integrationists who are fundamentally oppose to the Eurasian
Sovereignists who are now firmly behind Putin. Most importantly the
security services who are controlled by Putin allies develop a network of
potential supporters inside the basis of power of the Atlantic
Integrationists. See how complex that becomes?
So
while some superficial analysts are correct when they say that the Russian
oligarchs are generally 5th columnists and dangerous enemies of Putin, what
they
are missing is that a) not all oligarchs fall into this category and b) that
Putin has the means to influence or even coerce some anti-Putin oligarchs
thanks
to his control of the security services and their network inside the oligarchs
power base.
So
here is the crucial point: the relationship between the Kremlin and the
Russian oligarchy is a very complex one. Yes, by and large, it is
correct to say that we have Putin, the security services, the military,
the common Russian people on one side and the oligarchs, the liberal
intelligentsia, big business, banking, finance and CIA agents on the
other. But in reality, this is a primitive model, the reality is
infinitely more complex. I know I am going to get even more hate coming my
way for saying that, but some oligarchs are (for whatever reason) Putin allies
or Putin controlled-individuals. I have met some personally in the late
1990s and I am quite sure that they are still there. Why?
Because
there is a lot of money to be made in Russia by being on Putin's side. For
one thing, if you are in good terms with the Kremlin, you become untouchable
for
the rest of the more-or-less legal "business" world. You also get juicy
contracts. And the tax authorities might not be as meticulous when you
file for taxes. Again, the black-and-white Putin vs oligarchs image is
generally true, but only as a primitive model.
ZOOMING
BACK IN TO STRELKOV'S PRESS CONFERENCE
Let's
remember where Strelkov came from. While little is certain about him, he
appears to be an ex-FSB Colonel (in anti-terrorism), who fought as a volunteer
in Yugoslavia, Transnistria and Chechnia. He is also a historian, a
columnist and he likes to participate in military recreations. He is a
monarchist, an Orthodox Christian and and admirer of the White movement during
the civil war. In Novorussia, however, he entered a totally different
level jumping in one rapid, gigantic most successful leap from anti-terrorism
Colonel to what could be roughly described as an divisional or even army corp
commander who turned a volunteer militia force into a more or less regular
army. That is a huge feat: From almost nobody he became the
#1 hero and commander of the entire Novorussian resistance. And yet,
Novorussia is tiny compared to Russia and big Novorussian politics are tiny
compared to big Russian politics. And yet, in yesterday's press conference
Strelkov made yet another huge leap - he jumped from Novorussian military
issues
straight into the single most complex and dangerous struggle I can imagine: the
secret behind-the-scenes struggle for power in the Kremlin. It is far too
early to tell if this move will be as successful as his previous one,
Strelkov
went from swimming with Piranhas to swimming with Great White
sharks,
but I am cautiously optimistic. Here is why:
Strelkov's
potential in the Russian struggle for power
Putin
is acutely aware of the fact that his official power base (the state apparatus)
is chock-full of 5th columnists. The best proof for that is that he did two
very
interesting things:
a)
He created the All-Russia
People's Front (ARPF) which unlike the official party in power, United
Russia, was not created with a strong Medvedev/Atlantic
Integrationist component, but was created by Putin alone.
Officially, the ARPF is not a party but a "political-social movement" which is
supposed to bring together a large segment of generally pro-Kremlin
organizations and individuals and to provide a way for the common people to
convey their concerns to Putin. In reality, however, it is also a
"political party in waiting", very large, very well connected and which Putin
can "turn on" at any time, especially if challenged from inside United
Russia.
b)
Putin's security services have contributed to the creation of a plethora of
"near-Kremlin entities" (околокремлевские круги) which officially have no
subordination to the Kremlin, but which can get a lot of things done without
the
government involved or, even, informed. These near-Kremlin entities
include some news outlets, some commercial entities, a number of clubs, some
youth organizations, news agencies, etc. There is no formal list, no
admission procedure, no one leader. But somehow, there are always people
with contacts to the security agencies near or in these circles.
This
is were Strelkov fits in.
Strelkov
will first and foremost represent the interests of the people of Novorussia,
but
since he correctly identified the Russian 5th column as the mean threat to
Novorussia, he also is objectively becoming an ally of Putin in a common
struggle the Atlantic Integrationists. Now, let us be clear
here. Strelkov and Putin will not agree on a number of issues.
Strelkov clearly indicated that when he said
"No
matter how critical I am about certain internal or external policy decision of
president in conditions of war started against us, I consider it
necessary to support him as the only legitimate superior commander the main
guarantor of freedom and independence of the state"
The
fact that he concluded that Putin must be supported does not change the
fact that is clearly indicates that he is very critical of some Putin
decisions. My guess is that the obvious areas of disagreement
are:
a)
The ceasefire and subsequent negotiations
b)
The fact that Putin does with with some Russian oligarchs
c)
That Putin wants a united Ukraine
These
disagreements are normal and should not be interpreted as the sign of some kind
of opposition. Again, Novorussia and Russia simply have different
interests.
But
where Strelkov and Putin are in full agreement is the need to crush the 5th
column. Putin was the first to speak about a "Russian 5th column" (when he
addressed the Federal Assembly) and Strelkov picked up his expression.
This 5th column of Atlantic Sovereignists are a mortal danger to both Putin and
Strelkov and, as Strelkov correctly points out, Putin is a mortal danger to
them. When Strelkov speaks of a "Putin revolution" and of a "Russian
Spring" he is referring to the very same struggle which I in the past described
as a struggle of Atlantic Integrationists against the Eurasian
Sovereignists. The labels are different, but the process described is the
same one.
In
this context Strelkov could become a very powerful ally for Putin. By
speaking up for Novorussia Strelkov is also very clearly promoting the same
ideology, the same worldview, as Putin. In fact, I recommend to you all to
take the time and listen to (or read)
Putin's
Address to the Federal Assembly (March 18th)
The
press conference by by Alexander V. Zakharchenko (August
26th)
Yesterday's
Strelkov's press conference (September 11th)
Putin,
Zakharchenko and Strelkov all three fully realize that what is going on is
nothing shot of a war on Russia, but waged, at least for the time being,
by non-military means. All three know that the biggest threat to Russia is
an internal one. But all three can claim that the other two do not speak
for him. After all, one is the President of Russia, the second one is a
top representative of Donetsk and Novorussia, while the third one is,
technically speaking, a retired officer and a private individual. Yet all
three together are politically encircling the Russian 5th column into a
"political cauldron" in which they either support Putin or look like
traitors. A potentially very effective technique.
The
second role of Strelkov is to denounce and discredit the Putin-bashers who are
constantly declaring that "Putin is backstabbing or betraying Novorussia".
I predict that in a near future the very same circles who until now had taken
the position that Putin is a villain and Strelkov a hero will declare that
Strelkov is a villain and a traitor too. Some of these guys are
manipulated by western PSYOP specialists, others are simply paid by them, but
their goal is to convince the world that Putin is the bad guy and that a "real"
patriot needs to replace him. In other words, that Russia can only be
saved by making the Western elitist dream of a regime change in Russia come
true. But then, these are the very same people who wanted to
save Novorussia by making the other Western elitist dream, of having
an overt Russian military intervention in the Donbass, also come true.
My advice in regards to such "sorrow-patriots" as they are called in Russia is
simple: beware
of those who want to save Russia by making an Western elitist dream come
true.
If you keep that in mind, the enemies of Russia will be fairly easy to spot
:-)
CONCLUSION
I
was amazed and tremendously encouraged by Strelkov's very sophisticated
presentation of his position yesterday. Though this might be too early to
conclude, and I might be uncharacteristically optimistic about this, I believe
that Strelkov has the potential to become the Novorussian leader I was hoping
would emerge. If that is so, then I will gladly plead guilty of having
underestimated him. Still, I will also admit that I am very concerned for
him. The fact that apparently the Russia media has given his press
conference little or no attention combined with the rumor that he had killed
himself is a powerful message sent to him by the 5th column who is showing how
powerful it still is. In particular, I consider the rumor about his
suicide as a very serious death threat. Even worse, and maybe these are my
paranoid inclination speaking here, there are a lot of people on both sides who
might be interested in seeing Strelkov killed. The Atlantic
Integrationists and their 5th column would want him dead because he is so
openly
denouncing them, but make no mistake, there could also be Eurasian
Sovereignists
who might want him dead to have him as a martyr and symbol of Russian
heroism. Is that cynical and ugly? Yes. And so is the struggle for
power in Russia. Most people in the West have no idea how ruthless this
struggle can be. Unlike Putin, Strelkov is not protected by an extremely
powerful state security apparatus and, considering that he can be hit from
either side. He better be very *very* careful.
Just
for accepting to play the role he is playing now (and he, being an ex-FSB
colonel, fully knows the risks) I consider him a hero and he has my
sincere admiration. "They" will try to use him, threaten him, manipulate
him, discredit him and use every dirty trick possible to either control him or
crush him. Truly, his fate is already a tragic one and his courage
remarkable. Fighting the Ukie Nazis, the Chechen Wahabis or the Croat
Ustashe was a relaxing vacation compared to the kind of "warfare" going on in
the struggle for the control of Russia. Since Russia is the de-facto
leader of both the BRICS and the SCO the struggle for Russia is really a
struggle for the future of the planet. I believe that Strelkov understands
that.
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- » [patriots] FW: [MRG] Fwd: No. 1 Russia insider expert on the war within Russia - annette rose smith
