On Friday, April 29th, a detailed weather analysis was performed for a School
Star Party. 9 weather forecasts were studied as far as cloud percentage, wind,
and rain for 8pm that evening.
8 of the 9 forecasts showed no cloud problems (averaging 20% clouds), all 9
showed winds averaging 10 mph at the time of the viewing, and all 9 showed no
rain problems. The detailed weather report, which mentioned that it would be
very windy all afternoon but the wind would die down to 10 mph after sunset
when viewing would begin, was sent to the school contact in the morning along
with a note asking them to call me, the RSVP, to finalize the details of the
star party. I also told her that 10 mph was not a problem for our telescopes
since we were to set up on cement and not dirt. I recommended that the star
party take place. The school contact sent the report to the school principal
who looked outside and saw winds of about 20 mph at noon. She then contacted
Terri and cancelled the event because of the winds, without contacting me for
my final input.
I would have explained that we do the detailed weather analysis for the time of
the event, not the hours before the event. However our PAS event was gone with
the wind and all our PAS Star Tour members some of whom had planned to leave
work early, and some of whom had loaded their equipment, and some of whom had
foregone other Friday night events, had to put up with a cancellation that took
place only a few hours before we were to arrive at the school.
I then went out to the school at 7 pm just as the sun was setting. The winds
had died down just like the weather forecasts had predicted, to 10 mph and over
the next 30 minutes the winds were about 5 to 10 mph. The skies were 80 %
clear, again as predicted. I felt bad that our star tours people lost out on a
star party, and felt bad for the school children who lost out on a well
publicized star party that they were looking forward to all day. If this is how
customers will decide to cancel events, just stick their heads outdoors hours
before the event, there is little need to spend hours analyzing weather
forecasts, barometer readings, satellite photos and everything else that we do
for our star parties. If there had been an ice cream social or other program
planned in the windy afternoon as part of the school party, I can see why the
events were cancelled. But that was not the case, we were the only event.
I will continue to do detailed weather reports for our star parties but I think
we need to try to point out to our customers that when the reports are so
overwhelmingly consistent, 8 out of 9 weather reports predicting good weather,
the afternoon weather conditions should not be controlling. If the weather
reports had been mixed, like Thursday night at PVCC Blk Mtn where half the
reports were good and half bad, then I would not try to influence the
customer's decision. Since Alex and I did our weather forecasting research
project 2 years ago I believe we still have a great record of accuracy when all
but one or two forecasts agree. I am not upset at anyone, in fact I enjoyed
attending Encanto school grades 1 through 4 and Clarendon 5 through 8, many
many moons ago. Just had to get this off my chest. Weather analysis is hard
enough, but when it works out, I hate to see a star party gone with the wind.
Sam Insana President of PAS
