[opendtv] Re: Netflix CEO predicts broadcast TV will die by 2030
- From: Craig Birkmaier <craig@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
- To: "opendtv@xxxxxxxxxxxxx" <opendtv@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
- Date: Tue, 2 Dec 2014 19:50:01 -0500
You may be right. We will know much more next year when we see how many
stations cash out.
One area that has changed dramatically in the last two decades is TV news and
the 24/7 news channels.
There has been a quid pro quo since the beginning of broadcast television, that
the politicians get air time in their districts/states, then pay the stations
back when they buy ads during the elections. Most of the money was spent during
the local news blocks; now they buy everything that is not tied down. The last
election cycle was another bonanza for local stations - more than $3 billion
was spent, with the lion's share going to broadcast.
Now they get national exposure every night on the 24/7 news channels; at least
the leadership and committee chairs. Local news is still relevant, but the main
audience is dying. A Millennial would not be caught dead watching a local
newscast unless they were involved in a story, in which case they would light
up social media trying to get their BFF's to watch.
Broadcast AtV relied heavily on cross promotion and program adjacency. With a
significant portion of the audience moving to "random access," this old
paradigm is dying. The content congloms will not suffer - they have not relied
on OTA for more than a decade. They are just milking it for every retrans
dollar they can extort, while they work with new middlemen and sell the stuff
people actually watch to all of them.
There are broadcasters like Sinclair, that understand that there are still
opportunities, if broadcasters wake up and adapt to the changing landscape. But
it is not clear that they have enough like minded broadcasters to force the
needed change to the business model. If the U.S. chooses another big stick
transmission standard, Hastings is probably right.
Regards
Craig
Regards
Craig
> On Dec 2, 2014, at 6:39 PM, Ron Economos <w6rz@xxxxxxxxxxx> wrote:
>
> I don't think it will completely disappear. My prediction is that broadcast
> TV will end up where it started in 1948, on VHF channels 2 through 13.
>
> Ron
>
>> On 12/02/2014 03:09 PM, Craig Birkmaier wrote:
>> http://www.c2meworld.com/flink/?targeturl=http://www.thedrum.com/news/2014/11/29/netflix-ceo-predicts-broadcast-tv-will-die-2030#.VH5E9og8KrV
>>
>> NOVEMBER 2014 - 9:51AM | POSTED BY JOHN MCCARTHY
>>
>> Netflix CEO predicts broadcast TV will die by 2030
>>
>> The head of video-streaming service Netflix has foreshadowed the death of
>> broadcast TV, claiming it will be fully obsolete by 2030.
>>
>> Reed Hastings, the chief executive of Netflix made the comments earlier this
>> week in Mexico City where he was discussing the service’s growth in the Lat
>> Am region.
>>
>> He was quoted by the Hollywood reporter claiming that conventional TV
>> services are “kind of like the horse, you know, the horse was good until we
>> had the car.”
>>
>> He added: “The age of broadcast TV will probably last until 2030.”
>>
>> Hastings also admitted there are big plans in the works for Lat Am: “It is
>> one of the fastest growth areas in the world in terms of broadband
>> households and Internet connectivity.”
>>
>> The firm, which accounts for a third of all US traffic, has 53 million
>> subscribers worldwide and is largely responsible for the rise of on-demand
>> content - it could possibly be the service which deals the killer-blow to
>> satellite TV.
>>
>> Hastings has his eye on an international expansion too with New Zealand and
>> Australia set to see Netflix launched in the coming months, he said: “We are
>> trying to get to a place where it's fully global and you can get anything,
>> anywhere."
>>
>> However, despite impressive growth, in October Netflix issued a profit
>> warning after vastly overestimating how many people had subscribed to the
>> service.
>>
>
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