[opendtv] HDTV Forum 2004
- From: "Manfredi, Albert E" <albert.e.manfredi@xxxxxxxxxx>
- To: "OpenDTV (E-mail)" <opendtv@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
- Date: Fri, 3 Sep 2004 16:47:55 -0400
Although I think there's quite a bit of *really* annoying FUD
in this article, not to mention inadequate explanation of just
what this DTV/HDTV thing really is, one basic point it makes
is something we have talked about here at length and amidst
much acrimony. That is, you can't expect any consumer product
to succeed if you mandate use of lots of extra boxes, networks,
servers, media closets, or other such hindrance, not to mention
the mysteries of encrypted digital interfaces that might be
incompatible. (The article could have mentioned that analog
interfaces are still an easy out.)
The business about having to remodel your home for HDTV is
a bit over the top too, IMO. Nonsense.
The costs seem inflated. You can buy EDTV LCD screens today for
much less than $3000, even if you have to throw in an STB. May
not be HDTV, but it's certainly better than NTSC or SDTV!
On the return on investment question, it seems to me that two
points need to be made:
1. There will *never* be any ROI if the Nielsen ratings don't
count DTV households. Even if 100 percent of the viewing
audience switches to DTV, you'd still see no ROI. Not sure
why these obvious points aren't made. (I guess Nielsen has
just started including DTV?)
2. When analog is shut off, the ROI will be obvious.
Bert
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Industry stumbles over high-definition hurdles
By Rick Merritt , EE Times
August 27, 2004 (11:31 AM EDT)
URL: http://www.eet.com/article/showArticle.jhtml?articleId=3D44300012
Los Angeles - As the world watched the Athens games in high
definition last week, industry insiders here were warning that
an olympiad of hurdles lies ahead before digital TV and HDTV
hit their stride. The top problems are cost; the complexity of
buying, installing and using the systems; and an industry that
puts corporate over consumer interests, presenters said at the
HDTV Forum 2004.
The average selling price of a TV has hovered around $400 for
many years. Analysts expect it will trend up toward $625 over
the next five years as thin and wide flat panels replace aging
CRTs. Even with the latest microdisplays, entry-level HDTVs
start at $3,000.
"If HDTV remains a $3,000 to $5,000 system, we will stifle its
potential in the mass market. We may be strangling HDTV," said
Bill Burnett, president of D2M Inc. (Mountain View, Calif.), a
TV design house.
Burnett called for a sub-$500 display panel that would enable
low-cost HDTVs.
Costs are also high on the production side, said Bryan Burns,
vice president of strategic business planning and development
at ESPN, which plans to broadcast 6,000 hours of HD content in
2005.
"We are still buying equipment with serial No. 1. That's scary
from a live production standpoint, and it's expensive," Burns
said. "I am starting to read that the costs of HD are going
down, but I am not buying that yet. Super-slo-mo cameras for HD
don't exist yet."
ROI on HD
Cable and over-the-air networks have yet to see a return on
their investments in creating and broadcasting HD content.
"We are the reluctant leaders in this resolution revolution,"
said Randall Hoffner, manager of technical and strategic
planning at ABC, which has 122 HDTV-capable stations and 41
digital TV stations. About 75 percent of ABC's 22 prime-time
hours a week are broadcast in HDTV, he said.
"This is becoming the norm among all networks. It costs a lot
of money, and we have yet to see if there's a return on this
investment," Hoffner said.
Harold Protter, senior vice president of technology for the WB
Television Network, agreed, saying WB has spent $5 million and
its affiliates some $100 million on HD content and facilities
with no incremental revenue to date. "Cable operators have
been slow to find space for our HD channel," Protter said.
Only one major advertiser now finishes its TV commercials in
HD format because there are not enough HD viewers yet, said
Karl Meisenbach, director of advertising for startup HDNet,
which produces and distributes HD content. "The numbers just
aren't there."
Several forum presenters bashed HDTV for being too complex.
The format often requires multiple set-top, audio and video
subsystems, connected with expensive cables and requiring
custom installation. Even then, it can be difficult to
operate.
"My wife is an instrument-certified pilot," said Protter, and
even she "will not push multiple buttons on multiple remotes
to tune in Jay Leno in HD. It's way too complicated."
Others noted that retailers tend to deluge prospective buyers
with jargon related to the multitude of display and
interconnect types, when those same retailers are often
unfamiliar with the basic facts on how to get HD signals in
their local area.
Thus, consumers find that once they get a system home, they
often must knock a hole in the living room wall, throw out an
old credenza and tear out other built-in fixtures to make way
for the HDTV gear.
"It's no longer a decision to go flat-panel; it's a decision
to remodel," said Chris Connery, a market watcher with
DisplaySearch (Austin, Texas).
"Most people don't fully understand what's going on -
including me, and I've been writing about it for 20 years,"
said Jeffrey Hart, a professor of political science at
Indiana University and author of a just-released book on the
politics behind digital TV.
'Jury is out'
Indeed, complexity and confusion reign even in the production
environment. "We are just getting people trained in this
equipment, and the jury is out on what the degree of
difficulty will be," said Burns of ESPN.
For the people on whom the camera is trained, meanwhile,
HDTV's touted resolution is perceived to be a drawback.
"One of the things that hinders acceptance of HDTV is that
actors and actresses - the contract workers who run our jobs
- think HD makes them look worse than film, and they don't
want to use it. They think it shows more of their flaws.
That's just the way it is," said Derek Grover, a
cinematographer with Hollywood Digital Imaging.
But for now that worry may be overblown, since once users get
HD sets and services up and running in their homes, there's
no guarantee of picture quality.
One Toshiba engineer said he had been watching the Olympics
in HD and had often seen picture defects, which he attributed
to the use of compression in sending the signal. High-
definition signals will take on the lowest common denominator
of quality introduced anywhere in the chain, from acquisition
to satellite and cable broadcasting, defects in home cabling
or even design peculiarities in the set-top or TV that shows
them, he said.
Corporate interests
Mark Cuban, co-founder and chairman of HDNet, stirred the
conference with a defiant keynote on Wednesday, blaming
companies all across the food chain with putting corporate
over consumer interests.
Hollywood studios are too focused on protecting and managing
their content, Cuban said. Meanwhile, cable companies are
dragging their feet on a needed transition to better codecs
such as MPEG-4. And consumer electronics companies, he said,
are locked in a battle over next-generation DVD standards
that pose artificial limits on how HD content will be stored.
"We need to use technology to increase the enjoyment of the
end user," Cuban said. "If you just do what's best for
content, cable guys will come along."
Several vendors bashed the so-called Digital Cable Ready
agreement, under which TV makers are putting a government-
mandated slot into their digital sets and cable companies are
selling an access card that provides the link to their
services. But cable companies are discouraging the use of
today's one-way CableCards because the cards do not support
their video-on-demand or electronic program guide services.
Negotiations are still dragging on over two-way cards. TV
makers oppose demands from content providers to turn off or
reduce resolution on analog HD transmissions to prevent
consumers from copying unprotected HD analog content. No
decision on the issue is expected for at least a year.
TV makers fear users will want to return their Digital Cable
Ready sets after cable operators advise users they should buy
a set-top box rather than a CableCard.
"It's a mess," said Cuban.
Making matters worse, new competitors are arriving on the
scene, hoping to make hay with the rapid transition from CRT
to LCD and microdisplay TVs. They range from major PC
companies such as Dell, Hewlett-Packard and Gateway to new
names, many with connections to display and electronics
suppliers in South Korea and Taiwan.
"Anyone who has a checkbook and can fly overseas can be a TV
company now," the Toshiba engineer said.
All that said, many presenters here remained optimistic that
an era of high-resolution, 16:9 aspect-ratio TVs is coming.
But the sets will enter a world that still sports a bevy of
low-res, 4:3 aspect-ratio TVs - and its own set of problems.
"It will probably be 2010 before this tsunami hits the
beach," said Burns of ESPN. "All my formal and informal
sources tell me there will be about 100 million 16:9 sets in
2010 and 200 million 4:3 sets. This creates some very
difficult programming decisions."
Copyright 2003 CMP Media
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