[opendtv] Doomed to repeat the lessons of past, present and future with USDTV and DTV System M++....
- From: dermot nolan <dermot@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
- To: opendtv@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
- Date: Fri, 14 Jul 2006 13:35:01 +0200 (CEST)
Having read with interest the latest travails in the US and the forthcoming=
ones in Brazil its amazing that people never ever learn:
a) The use of DTT as a bearer platform for a commercially credible and comp=
etitive pay-Tv platform is a non-runner whilst analogue broadcasting contin=
ues, not enough spectrum vs DBS. RIP ITV-Digital, Quiero and now USDTV. Of =
course the latter was probably hobbled by 8VSB as well with its delightful =
reception travails.
b) In the pay-TV wars the platforms with the highest throughput always win.=
The very same story is being replayed now in mobile TV: the highest throug=
hput platforms are likely to win hands down (eg DVB-H and FLO) over the oth=
er pretenders which are narrow bandwidth systems. I also see that American =
ingenuity, in the form of Texas Instruments, has come up with a clever solu=
tion to the DVB-H channel change time issue. Just transmit a reference stil=
l frame occasionally which reduces channel change time to 1.5 seconds from =
6.0 seconds. Makes it same as DTV and FLO. A very competitive situation.
C) Brazil. This outcome was entirely predictable given the preferences of t=
he broadcasters, the desperation of the Japanese to secure another market, =
and the blandishment of US$ 500 million for a semiconductor factory. ISDB-T=
continues to lack global scale, and Brazil has compounded the error by goi=
ng for MPEG4. That adds 40% to STB costs which will have a significant impa=
ct in a country with low GDP/capita. Elswehere MPEG4 systems are only being=
deployed in IPTV, DBS, cable, pay-DTV (France..) and MDTV which are all, o=
f course, subscription funded systems which can subsidise the rollouts. Bra=
zil appears to be repeating the mistakes of the past by a) choosing a non-s=
tandard system with only one other market b) compounding the error by going=
for a high-cost solution. The result is likely to be a replay of the past:=
DTV System M++ (the ++ referring to high costs, high scale losses and high=
analogue retention likelihood).
d) Its very interesting to note that in the markets where the Freeview mode=
l has been adopted take up is phenomenal: 3.0M TNT DTV homes in France, 2.0=
+M in Spain. Its driven by free content, global economies of scale and scop=
e, a working modulation system, cheap boxes and the undermining of the basi=
c cable tier which siphons off many broadcasters to deliver FTA service. Th=
e latest to go clear in the UK is FilmFour, Channel 4's film service later =
this month. A very interesting paper has shown that the economics now work =
far better FTA for many broadcasters than basic tier pay....Distribution, d=
istribution, distribution.
e) The UK is a very interesting market now: Freeview will shortly overtake =
Sky, STBs are =C2=A329 for a zapper, and about =C2=A3130 for a decentish PV=
R box, and virtually all bigger LCDS/plasmas have Freeview tuners, there is=
also a very interesting omndidirectional outdoor antenna with 15dB gain (o=
nly works with COFDM standard) which is powered off the STB, on sale for =
=C2=A329, which is apparently highly effective. A battle royal is expected =
over what to do with the released UHF spectrum: HDTV, MDTV or both...
f) I have been watching both the Sky MPEG4 HDTV broadcasts and the Freeview=
DVB-T MPEG4 HDTV tests (the latter via a high-spec PC with fancy codecs et=
c...): the picture quality is outstanding but there is a way to go with thi=
ngs like slow motion replay, dealing with multiple sources, concatentation =
chains, etc, etc... And, apart from the BBC, the main commercial broadcaste=
rs are not persuaded by the economics of HDTV transmission, preferring to c=
oncentrate on multichannel FTA offerings. The cost of ownership is high: =
=C2=A3299 for the Sky box, =C2=A360 installation, an extra =C2=A310 a month=
, + a suitable HD ready LCD/plasma. Total upfront cost in year one is north=
of =C2=A31500. at the moment all broadcasts appear to be mostly 1080i, it =
would be interesting to see 720P comparison soon, and the transition to DV=
B-S2.
So as opendtv continues it seems some hard lessons are being learnt all ove=
r again...
Kind Regards,
Dermot Nolan
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