[net-gold] COUNTRIES: RUSSIA, UKRAINE: Ukraine Crisis: Who Will Blink First, Vladimir Putin or the West?
- From: "David P. Dillard" <jwne@xxxxxxxxxx>
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- Date: Sun, 4 May 2014 14:47:48 -0400 (EDT)
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COUNTRIES: RUSSIA, UKRAINE:
Ukraine Crisis: Who Will Blink First, Vladimir Putin or the West?
By Ulrich Speck
CNN
updated 9:18 AM EDT, Mon April 28, 2014
http://www.cnn.com/2014/04/28/opinion/ukraine-putin-west-chess/index.html
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(CNN) -- Russia's seizure of Crimea last month may have unfolded with a
lightning quickness, but Vladimir Putin and the West are now engaged in a
much slower match of wits on a chessboard stretching across most of
eastern Ukraine.
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Rather than going for checkmate, both sides now seem content to wait for
the other to make a mistake. Putin made a strong first move by placing
40,000 troops on the border -- and separatists, who are not officially
linked to Russia, on the ground in Ukraine.
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Now Moscow is waiting for the pro-Western government in Kiev to try to
retake the parts of the east it has seemingly lost. In Russia's eyes, any
such move from the capital would legitimize an overwhelming counterattack
-- a re-run of the Georgia crisis in 2008, when President Mikheil
Saakashvili lost his nerve, shot first, and prompted a Russian invasion.
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Putin's problem is time; he cannot wait forever to strike. Troops cannot
remain ready for combat for many months at a time. Separatists in eastern
Ukraine are lost without outside support, and may become nervous as time
drags on without any glimpse of a light at the end of the tunnel.
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On the other side of the board are U.S. President Barack Obama, German
Chancellor Angela Merkel and Ukraine's fledgling government. The biggest
challenge for Obama and his German counterpart is to keep a united Western
front. They need to uphold a credible threat of massive economic sanctions
that could undercut the Kremlin's funding if it doesn't toe the line.
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But cracks in Western unity are visible everywhere. Europe may be
concerned about Russian aggression in Ukraine, but the continent is
dragging its collective feet on taking a more confrontational stance
towards Putin.
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Some nations fear Russian pressure, especially on their energy supply.
Many are nervous about the price their own countries will pay as a result
of tougher sanctions. And nobody is sure yet whether they're ready to
abandon the idea of Russia as a vital partner.
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The complete article may be read at the URL above.
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Sincerely,
David Dillard
Temple University
(215) 204 - 4584
jwne@xxxxxxxxxx
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