[lit-ideas] Divided Opinion on Iranian Influence in Iraq
- From: Scribe1865@xxxxxxx
- To: lit-ideas@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
- Date: Tue, 6 Apr 2004 03:43:43 EDT
How to know what the Iranian influence is?
http://www.usip.org/pubs/specialreports/sr108.html
says
The emergence of Shiite power in Iraq, rather than giving Iran a major
toehold over the new Iraq, is more likely to serve as a rival to Iran over time
and
pose a basic ideological threat to Iranian hardliners who champion clerical
rule.
Iraqi Shia are much less likely than Iranian Shia to accept clerical rule,
even while possibly supporting some kind of Islamic state in which clerics do
not dominate.
On the other hand http://www.cfr.org/background/background_iraq_iran.php
says:
What influence does Iran have over Shiites?
It has been the main voice of Shiite Islam since the late 1970s, when Saddam
Hussein took power and turned Iraq from a center for Shiite practice into a
nation that severely persecuted its adherents. Iranâ??s government, headed by
Supreme Leader Ayatollah Seyed Ali Khamenei, has provided a haven to opponents
of
Saddamâ??s regime, financially supported Iraqi opposition groups, and is the
birt
hplace of some of Iraqâ??s most important clerics.
Experts say Iran will use its power and influence in Iraq to remind the
United States that it is an important player in the Persian Gulf region. Some
say
that was the reasoning behind Iranian President Mohammad Khatamiâ??s mid-May
visit to Lebanon, where he was received by enthusiastic crowds.
How is Iranian influence being felt in Iraq?
U.S. officials have warned Iran to keep its agents out of Iraq, but
classified U.S. intelligence, cited in the American press, indicates that Iran
may be
trying to exert direct influence in Iraq by moving Iranian intelligence agents
and military forces across its border. Some commentators go so far as to blame
some of the instability now in Iraqâ??especially in the Shiite populationâ??on
Iranian provocateurs. Iran denies that it is sending agents into Iraq.
What other signs of Iranian influence are there?
Thousands of Iraqis are returning from exile in Iran. Many of them are
students or clerics who fled to Iran during Saddamâ??s repressive rule and were
supported by the Iranian government. Some Iranian clerics, such as Kadhem
al-Husseini al-Haeri, have issued religious edicts calling on Iraqi Shiites to
resist
American influence.
With what Iraqi opposition forces does Iran have ties?
The strongest ties are believed to be with the Supreme Council for the
Islamic Revolution in Iraq (SCIRI) led by Ayatollah Mohammed Bakr Hakim. Hakim,
63,
lost 19 family members to Saddamâ??s assassins and has been based in Iran since
1980. His group has a military wing called the Badr Brigade, whose estimated
10,000 members have reportedly been trained by Iranâ??s Revolutionary Guards.
Hakim has recently returned to Iraq, as have many of his supporters.
How much influence does Iran wield through the opposition groups?
Observers disagree. Some American observers, particularly those who take a
hard-line view of Iran and advocate regime change there, refer to SCIRI as
Iranâ??
s proxy force in Iraq. Others, however, say that while SCIRI certainly owes
Iran some allegiance, it also is indebted to its American patrons and will
balance these competing loyalties as it pursues its independent goals. Iranian
influence on other opposition figures appears to be less of a concern to U.S.
policymakers.
Does SCIRI want to turn Iraq into a Shiite Islamic theocracy?
It is not clear. In his public statements since his return to Iraq, Hakim
says he favors a kind of Islamic-based democracy, not a cleric-led theocracy
that
severely curtails the rights of non-Muslims to worship and imposes harsh
Islamic law. â??We donâ??t want an extremist brand of Islam,â?? he told
thousands of
supporters in an open-air stadium in the southern Iraq city of Basra May 10.
â??We
want an Islam that is compatible with independence, justice, and freedom.â??
Does Iran have a relationship with other Iraqi opposition groups?
Yes. Iran has some weaker ties with other well-known Iraqi opposition
figures. The Iraqi National Congress (INC), an umbrella opposition group led by
Ahmad
Chalabi, has long had offices in Tehran. Experts say Iran also has
connections with the main Kurdish opposition groups, in particular, the
Patriotic Union
of Kurdistan (PUK), which, under the cover of the northern â??no-flyâ?? zone
established by the United States and its allies after the 1991 Gulf War, has
held
de facto control of the part of northern Iraqâ??s Kurdish region that borders
Iran.
Is Iran hoping that Iraq splits into different parts, one of which would be a
Shiite state?
Again, this is a hotly debated point, but many experts say no. They say that
Iran would prefer a stable, friendly state as its neighbor rather than one
torn into different ethnic or religious states. However, some experts also
caution that this could change if Iran is threatened by a new Iraqi government.
In
particular, Iranâ??s anti-American leaders are concerned about long-term U.S.
influence in Iran, which now finds itself sandwiched between Iraq and
Afghanistan, two countries that host U.S. soldiers and are deeply influenced by
the
United States.
How is the United States dealing with Iranian influence in Iraq?
There appear to be two sides to U.S. policy. On the one hand, the
administration has taken a tough approach, publicly warning Iran to keep its
agents out
of Iraq. On the other hand, it appears to be pursuing a policy of cautious
engagement with Ayatollah Hakim and his SCIRI organization despite its Iranian
ties. Though who will lead an Iraqi interim government is still in flux, U.S.
officials in Iraq have said SCIRI, along with other Iraqi opposition leaders,
will be part of a â??nucleusâ?? of leadership. Experts say this move may temper
Iranian opposition to U.S./British-led authority in Iraq.
Have the United States and Iran discussed the Iraq issue directly?
Yes. Though there are no formal ties between the United States and Iran,
meetings to discuss Afghanistan and Iraq have been held in Geneva between
Zalmay
Khalilzad, President Bushâ??s special envoy to the Iraqi opposition, and
Iranian
officials. Another indication of a moderate approach: President Bush has
decided to disarm the anti-Iranian MEK.
How has the Iraq issue affected U.S.-Iranian ties?
It is unclear, in part because Washington remains deeply divided on the best
way to deal with Iran, a country with which it has had no formal relationship
since 1980. Moderates argue for a policy of greater engagement with Iran, now
that the U.S. occupation of Iraq has boosted Washingtonâ??s regional influence.
There also appears to be increasing interest on the part of the Iranian regime
in meeting with the United Statesâ??though both sides have stopped short of
saying they are ready for a resumption of formal ties. Neoconservatives in
Washington, however, oppose engagement, which they believe will shore up the
current
Iranian regime and hurt the prospects of Iranian regime change.
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