http://www.salon.com/2016/11/19/who-killed-the-hydrogen-car-nothing-except-time-overhyped-expectations-and-the-viability-of-electric-vehicles/
Saturday, Nov 19, 2016 10:45 AM EST
Who killed the hydrogen car?
Nothing except time, overhyped expectations and the viability of
electric vehicles
Its promise was always too good to be true — a car running on 100
percent clean energy — and too good to give up on
Diane Stopyra
The hydrogen car is like your dream of learning to play the guitar or
writing the Great American Novel — you still hope, but as time goes by
you can’t help but lose faith. After all, it’s been 50 years since
General Motors unveiled the first iteration in this automotive frontier,
billed as environmentally safe. It’s been 38 years since Jack Nicholson
stuck his face against the tailpipe of a hydrogen vehicle for a
non-toxic steam facial on national TV. And it’s been nine years since
Brad Pitt showed up to the premiere of “Ocean’s Thirteen” in the BMW
Hydrogen 7. If celebrity approval and avant-garde appeal were any kind
of bellwether, the highways would be full of H-cars by now. So what’s
taking so long for these gasoline-free wheels to reach mass-market status?
By now, the need for environmentally friendly vehicles is clear. Yet,
according to The Guardian, 95 percent of our transport still relies on
oil. Cars and trucks that run on oil-based gasoline account for nearly
one-fifth of our carbon emissions, which are driving climate change and
creating the mother of all risks to national security. Just one gallon
of gasoline produces 19 pounds of carbon dioxide.
The “H” on the periodic table representing colorless, odorless gas
hydrogen might as well stand for “help” or “hope.” Rather than an
internal combustion engine, hydrogen vehicles are equipped with fuel
cells that produce electricity by creating a chemical reaction between
hydrogen and oxygen. The process is entirely clean — no gas emissions,
no toxic byproducts whatsoever. The reaction only produces two things:
water and energy. And because we can make hydrogen in the U.S., this
fuel has potential to lessen our dependence on foreign sources of oil.
If may sound too good to be true but in fact it’s too hard to produce
and popularize. And over the years, the best environmentally friendly
vehicle possible has been overshadowed by merely good ones, according to
Joseph Romm, PhD, a physicist, a Senior Fellow at the Center for
American Progress, a former U.S. Department of Energy official, and the
author of several books, including “The Hype About Hydrogen: Fact and
Fiction in the Race to Save the Climate” and “Climate Change: What
Everyone Needs to Know.”
“Hydrogen cars have missed the boat,” Romm told Salon. “This is like
Betamax competing against VHS tapes in the ’90s. Once the market decides
it’s going one way, the loser is screwed. Hydrogen cars are never going
to be a mass-market success now that electric vehicle batteries have
crossed the key price point, and continue to drop.”
Indeed, more than 64,000 new electric cars hit the streets during the
first half of 2016 alone, while the total number of hydrogen fuel cell
vehicles on the road isn’t expected to hit 70,000 until 2027.
For starters, the infrastructure for electric vehicles — that is, the
electric grid — is already in place, whereas building a network of
hydrogen fueling stations, the so-called hydrogen highway, is a daunting
task. Just one station can require 36 months of construction and cost $1
million. The cars, too, are expensive to manufacture (those fuel cells
require platinum catalysts), which means they’re also expensive to buy.
The highest-selling model in the U.S. is Toyota’s Mirai, which retails
for $58,365 (though tax rebates cut that back).
Storage is also a major issue. Liquid hydrogen takes up the least amount
of space, but it needs to be stored at -427F, and a great deal of energy
is required to keep it that cold. Hydrogen is the lightest of all
elements — even lighter than helium — so it has a penchant for floating
away. Additionally, it occupies three times as much space as petroleum,
for the same amount of energy. This means a 40-ton truck can deliver 26
tons of gasoline at one time, but only .44 tons of compressed hydrogen.
And though renewable energy could be used to produce hydrogen, in the
U.S. 95 percent of hydrogen is made from fossil fuel — so while the
end-product is clean, its production is not. Or not yet, anyway.
Still, some experts, like Joan Ogden, an Associate Professor of
Environmental Science and Policy at the University of California, Davis
and an Associate Energy Policy Analyst and Co-Director of the Hydrogen
Pathway Program at the Institute of Transportation Studies, believe the
hydrogen car will be at least a part of our transportation mix before long.
“In the future, I don’t believe the automobile industry is going to be a
monoculture the way it’s been for the last 100 years,” Ogden told Salon.
“I think we’ll see a much more diverse plate, with roles for electric
cars, hybrid plug-ins and hydrogen fuel cells.”
Ogden believes there’s enough momentum behind building a hydrogen
infrastructure for this to come to fruition. Major rollouts are already
underway in Japan, Germany and Korea, with Australia, Norway, Denmark
and China close behind. In the U.S., thanks to support provided by
2013’s Assembly Bill 8, 23 fueling stations are open for retail business
in California, with 100 expected before 2020. Information from H2USA,
the public-private partnership for advancing the widespread adoption of
hydrogen cars in America, suggests the Northeast will see the next surge.
True, filling up on hydrogen seems more pricey than with the gas pump
(hydrogen is equivalent on a price-per-energy basis to $5.60 per gallon
of gasoline), but hydrogen vehicles have a longer range than their
alternative-energy competitors — fuel cell cars can go more than 300
miles in one shot, while the electric car industry is struggling to hit
that mark. In the meantime, the National Renewable Energy Laboratory
expects hydrogen prices to drop in coming years.
And hydrogen production in the U.S. is getting a lot cleaner, too.
California law, for instance, mandates that 33 percent of hydrogen for
vehicles has to come from renewable sources, rather than fossil fuel,
and experts anticipate this number growing as we decarbonize. Imagine
driving on fuel generated entirely by solar power, wind, or biomass (aka
animal waste). In Japan, Toyota has even turned to human sewage for a
toilet-to-tank scheme that’s a lot cleaner and less gross than it
sounds. And in the U.S. there has never been more coordination between
stakeholders, consumers, regulators, fuel providers and automakers.
Of course, many people feel like they’ve heard optimistic projections
like that before — because they have. But consider this: There is a
reason that, while the high hopes for the hydrogen car have never come
to life, they haven’t died either.