http://www.truth-out.org/news/item/39020-unprecedented-polar-melting-unfolds-as-climate-disruption-denial-goes-wild
[links in on-line article]
"Unprecedented" Polar Melting Unfolds as Climate Disruption Denial Goes Wild
Monday, January 09, 2017 By Dahr Jamail, Truthout | Report
There was a moment in early January when it was colder in Seattle (27F)
than it was on the North Slope of Alaska in the Arctic town of Barrow (30F).
On the day that this occurred, Barrow, whose normal high temperature for
that day was negative 5 degrees, saw a record high temperature of 33
degrees above zero.
This unprecedented phenomenon sums up the direction of this month's
dispatch: a turn toward "global weirding" on all fronts.
As Truthout reported in mid-December, scientists with the National
Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) concluded in their annual
Arctic climate report card, "The Arctic is unraveling." Record-breaking
heat in the north has clearly pushed the region into uncharted climate
territory.
In late December, the heating trend continued, with temperatures at the
North Pole spiking to near melting point, a stunning 50 degrees
Fahrenheit above normal, despite being the darkest time of the year,
with literally no sunlight.
Antarctica saw equally shocking developments. Recent NASA photography
revealed a 300-foot-wide rift along the Larsen C ice shelf, signaling
the now imminent demise of the massive ice shelf, which will send an
iceberg the size of Delaware into the southern ocean.
Words like "unprecedented" and phrases like "we haven't seen anything
like this yet" are no longer uncommon among scientists studying the ice
in Antarctica, where a break in the Pine Island Glacier has now revealed
yet another mechanism for collapse. (That glacier, along with so many
other massive glaciers in the Antarctic, is melting due to warmer sea
water from below.)
Simultaneously, in East Antarctica, a region of the ice continent
assumed to be relatively intact and, thus far, impervious to the impacts
of anthropogenic climate disruption (ACD), two recent scientific reports
have exposed some seriously troubling warning signs. The studies, each
of which focused in on a different East Antarctic ice shelf, showed that
major melting is already occurring both from above and below that could
eventually release the ice shelves -- and thus release all the ice above
them on the continent. Given that East Antarctica contains roughly two
thirds of all the ice on the continent, this is troubling news indeed:
The entire region's stability is now under threat.
It is worth noting that by November, the Arctic and Antarctic had both
hit record low sea ice coverage, and NASA recently released imagery
showing how stunningly fast glaciers around the world are melting. Given
that glaciers hold approximately 69 percent of all the fresh water on
the planet, the implications for humans, coupled with sea level rise,
are obvious.
Of course, President-elect Donald Trump's impending inauguration looms
over all of these developments. A man will occupy the White House who
says, "Nobody really knows if climate change is real." Last month,
Anthony Scaramucci, an advisor from the executive committee of Trump's
transition team, went on CNN and forcefully denied ACD -- while stating
that the Earth is 5,500 years old.
Buckle up.
Earth
When one thinks of ACD's impacts on forests, droughts and wildfires
generally come to mind. However, we would do well to recognize a
lesser-known ACD-related impact on forests: bugs. A recent study
predicts that insects will leave at least 63 percent of US forests at
risk by 2027, and are already one of the single largest threats to
biodiversity in the US. Surging beetle kills caused by ACD-driven
warming temperatures and droughts, along with invasive species
introduced via global trade, are two examples. "They are one of the few
things that can actually eliminate a forest tree species in pretty short
order, Harvard University ecologist David Orwig, who participated in the
study, told the media. "Within years."
A recent study published by scientists from UC Davis and the US Forest
Service showed that, disconcertingly, forests are failing to regrow
after ACD-driven wildfires that have become larger, hotter and more
frequent across the country. The study shows how recent fires have
killed so many mature, seed-producing trees across such vast swaths of
land, that forests are unable to reseed themselves. Study coauthor Kevin
Welch, a forest researcher at UC Davis, said, "We aren't seeing the
conditions that are likely to promote natural regeneration."
And when dramatic ACD-impacts are causing forests in the US to suffer,
trees halfway around the world are simultaneously impacted, according to
another recent study. When drought, insect infestation, heat or
exploitation cause a significant number of trees to die in one area, the
climate in forests in distant lands is also altered. Hence, according to
the researchers, if enough woodlands are burned in North America, the
consequences of this are felt in Siberian forests. If enough tropical
rainforests are cleared in the Amazon, conifers in Siberia experience
drought and greater cold, due to what the study describes as a
"teleconnection": Activities in one region of Earth can disturb or alter
the climate equilibrium in another, very far away.
"When trees die in one place, it can be good or bad for plants elsewhere
because it causes changes in one place that can ricochet to shift
climate in another place," Elizabeth Garcia of the University of
Washington, who worked on the study, told the Climate News Network. "The
atmosphere provides the connection."
Meanwhile, another recently published study showed that some plant
species in the Himalayas, like the rhododendron, have shown indications
that their spring blooming season has been moved three months forward by
ACD.
Not surprisingly, wildlife continues to display distress signals from
ACD impacts as well.
Another study shows that hundreds of species around the globe -- land,
as well as marine -- are already experiencing localized extinctions, and
researchers affiliated with the study said that this is just the beginning.
Not surprisingly, another study, this one coming from the University of
Edinburgh, shows that ACD is already driving birds to migrate earlier as
global temperatures continue to increase across the board. When the
birds arrive at their breeding grounds earlier, however, they often miss
out on food sources and starve to death.
In the far north, reindeer are physically shrinking, primarily due to an
increasing lack of food. Their weight has gone down considerably since
the 1990s.
Plus, the world's largest herd of reindeer, located on the Taimyr
Peninsula of Russia, is plummeting in size, according to another report.
The herd of wild reindeer has lost 40 percent of its population since
just 2000, due to warming temperatures and human encroachment, and the
numbers continue to decline rapidly.
Another warning sign from the north comes from steller sea lions, whose
populations in the western Aleutian Islands continue to fall. Scientists
blame ACD-driven warming waters that are causing food shortages and
other health issues.
More distressing news from the north comes in the form of an expected
change in the food chain: Experts warned recently that polar bears are
likely to become prey to killer whales and Greenland sharks. Polar Bears
are already the iconic species threatened by ACD, since they have
increasingly had to swim further for food due to dwindling sea ice. This
leaves them much more exposed to potential attacks from the killer
whales and sharks. Meanwhile, the whales and sharks are eating the seals
on which the polar bears rely for food themselves.
Canada's Hudson Bay, normally considered the "polar bear capital of the
world," was as free of ice this past November as it was on a typical
summer day. This indicates that, if trends continue, polar bears there
could well be extinct by 2050.
Lastly in this section, the thawing of permafrost in Alaska and the
Yukon has been shown, according to a recent study, to be literally
changing the chemistry of the fabled Yukon River. "Essentially, what we
found is, a lot of the common kind of minerals, and some of the
nutrients in the Yukon River, and the Tanana River, had greatly
increased over those 30 years," Hydrologist Ryan Toohy with the USGS
Alaska Climate Science Center, told Alaska Public Radio. Impacts of this
include declining numbers of salmon returning to spawn in the Yukon
River, which hurts tribes that rely upon the fish to put food on their
tables. The reductions in salmon populations also affects the culture of
tribes that practice subsistence living.
Water
As usual, the most obvious ACD impacts are making themselves known
across Earth's watery realms.
An amount of polar sea ice the size of India (or two Alaskas) has
vanished amidst record-high ocean and atmospheric temperatures,
according to climate scientists. It's not surprising, given that parts
of the Arctic were 20 degrees Celsius (36F) above normal on some days
during last November.
Another study showed that ACD-driven warming is sending mountain
glaciers "off a cliff," and called these retreating glaciers
"categorical evidence" of ACD, noting that the glacial retreat provides
"sobering perspective on how far out of equilibrium these glaciers are."
A 2015 winter research expedition in the Arctic left researchers shocked
by how thin and weak the Arctic sea ice was, in addition to being
stunned by how early a summer phytoplankton bloom arrived. They
attributed the bloom to the warmer-than-normal Arctic waters.
A recently published study brings more bad news for Greenland. The study
showed that the Greenland Ice Sheet will likely be melting much faster
than previously believed, which is also bad news for sea-level increase
around the world.
New research has confirmed what has been known for quite some time now:
that ongoing melting of the Greenland Ice Sheet is bringing us closer to
an inevitable long-term consequence of collapsing the Atlantic Ocean's
circulation, which would bring catastrophic climatic shifts to Northern
Europe, North America and beyond.
Down in the Antarctic, things are no better. Recently released long-term
satellite observations have revealed that dramatic ice loss is spreading
rapidly up glaciers in the Antarctic, some of which are losing more than
20 feet of height per year.
ACD has been linked to massive changes taking place in the food web of
the US Great Lakes region, as the base of the food chain drastically
transforms. Warming water temperatures are causing an algae that forms
the food chain's base to increase in number, which will have unforeseen
impacts on everything else in that ecosystem.
If you live in Miami, New Orleans or New York, a recent report shows
that you are in one of the top US cities already experiencing sea-level
rise, which is expected to increase dramatically in the coming years.
More scientific research shows that the Everglades' water is now at risk
from sea-level rise, which means the fabled "river of grass," as the
area has long been referred to, is going to be inundated with saltwater.
Across the Atlantic, a recent study suggests that the only reason
coastal communities in Britain have survived sea level rise and extreme
weather events thus far has been luck. The study found that the winter
of 2013-2014 saw storms generate the maximum recorded sea level at half
of the tidal measuring sites around the UK, as well as the largest
number of extreme sea-level events of any season in the last 100 years.
However, troublingly, the study showed that none of those serious
flooding events happened during a severe storm, which means that things
could have been far, far worse. Hence, it is only a matter of time for
an ACD-fueled extreme storm to coincide with a high tide, which will
bring widespread destruction to wherever it lands on Britain's coastline.
Lastly in this section, recent research shows that the Great Barrier
Reef in Australia, which was hammered by a coral bleaching event not
long ago, is not likely to survive at all if oceanic warming continues,
which it most assuredly will. The study projects that by the year 2050,
more than 98 percent of global coral reefs will be afflicted by
"bleaching-level thermal stress" every year.
Fire
The American Meteorological Society's annual attribution report released
mid-December showed that ACD-driven heat was the key factor in Alaska's
2015 fire season, which was the second worst on record, in terms of the
total area burned. The report also cited "snowpack drought" in
Washington State that resulted from high temperatures as another factor
that led to wildfires in that state, and indicated that in both places,
rising temperatures will continue to predispose the areas to increasing
frequency and duration of wildfires.
More than 100 active wildfires in South Africa, burning amidst
conditions of warmer than normal temperatures, lack of rainfall and dry
conditions fueled by ACD impacts, were burning at the time of this writing.
Air
Soon, 2016 will be deemed the warmest year recorded on the planet since
record-keeping began. This is certainly true in the Arctic, where autumn
temperatures soared to 36F above normal and even higher in some places.
Jennifer Francis, a research professor at Rutgers University, explained
to Yale Environment 360 that a rapidly warming Arctic will have profound
implications on global weather in many ways, such as a shifting jet
stream, more persistent and prolonged droughts, and heavy flooding, all
of which will dramatically impact food production.
Last month, Climate Central produced this excellent graphic, which gives
one a clear, visual perspective on how much warming occurred in the
continental US during 2016. In summary, 2 percent of US weather stations
reported colder-than-average temperatures for the year, 98 percent of
them reported warmer-than-average temperatures for the year, and 10
percent of them reported temperatures that were the hottest on record.
Meanwhile, scientists in Vietnam point to ACD as the cause of an
increase in vector-borne diseases like malaria and dengue fever, due to
rising seawater levels and warmer temperatures creating conditions
favorable for mosquito reproduction and transmission of diseases.
Denial and Reality
With an incoming Donald Trump presidency -- including a cabinet that
amounts to an environmental demolition team -- we can expect this denial
section to become quite lengthy in future dispatches.
The Center for Media and Democracy published a leaked transition team
memo that outlined Trump's disastrous energy agenda. The plan will
essentially lay waste to most federal environmental regulations that are
left, and will halt efforts toward developing clean energy and
addressing ACD, scant as they may be. It includes, but is not limited
to, the following steps: withdraw from the Paris climate agreement,
increase federal oil and natural gas leasing, lift the coal lease
moratorium, give states greater say on energy leases on federal lands
within state borders, expedite approvals on LNG [liquefied natural gas]
export terminals, move full steam ahead on pipeline infrastructure,
amend the Renewable Fuel Standard and relax federal fuel economy standards.
Conveniently, Exxon CEO Rex Tillerson was named Secretary of State,
despite the fact that investigations have been underway to look into
Exxon's climate science disinformation campaigns.
Just as conveniently, Chris Shank, the deputy chief of staff to Rep.
Lamar Smith (R-Texas) and a vocal ACD denier, was selected to head the
NASA transition team. It is clear that most money slated for NASA to
study climate/earth science will be slashed.
Australian climate scientists have already slammed Trump's plans to
scrap NASA's climate science work, as outrage at the president-elect's
anti-environment stance mounts around the globe.
Some of the environmental Cabinet picks read like a sick joke: Trump
also picked Oklahoma Attorney General Scott Pruitt, a staunch ally of
the fossil fuel industry and ACD denier, to head the EPA. Both Pruitt
and Trump have been blatant opponents of the EPA itself.
In total, at least nine senior members of Trump's transition team deny
the existence of ACD while demonstrating a completely pro-fossil fuel
agenda. Deniers have been chosen to lead every single agency that deals
with ACD.
As a result of all of this, US climate scientists are frantically
copying, backing up and storing abroad any and all US climate data out
of fear it could be scrubbed under the incoming Trump administration.
The Guardian recently published an excellent piece that outlines what it
calls the "booming conspiracy culture of climate science denial" that is
happening alongside (and along with) the incoming Trump administration.
The article shows how conspiracy websites and outlets, such as
Breitbart, are working to create massive online audiences who believe
that ACD is a "hoax."
On the reality front, thankfully, there is some good news.
Divestments from the fossil fuel industry now represent at least $5.2
trillion, which is certainly heartening. That means that a record number
of investors have agreed to withdraw, or already have withdrawn, money
from the fossil fuel industry and are investing in renewables.
NASA satellites, scientists and super computers recently produced an
amazing 3-D view of how CO2 flows through the atmosphere.
The single largest science event on Earth took place in San Francisco in
December, when the American Geophysical Union convened for its annual
meeting. There, with more than 20,000 earth and space scientists
present, it was proclaimed that "the time has never been more urgent"
for their work to continue.
And for the rest of us, "the time has never been more urgent" to bear
witness to what is happening across the planet, and to act on the
planet's behalf.
================================================================
http://business.financialpost.com/fp-comment/lawrence-solomon-proof-that-a-new-ice-age-has-already-started-is-stronger-than-ever-and-we-couldnt-be-less-prepared
[Meanwhile, back in another part of Bizarro World ...
Let's see, this guy's model says the world started cooling in 2012 and
continued to do so since. However, as pretty much all the actual DATA
for that period indicate an accelerating heating trend, well, the data
must be wrong. Sigh.
Oddly enough, unrelated to sun spots and solar cycles, there is a
prediction in the climate change models for Europe to cool as the
Atlantic Conveyor current could diminish as Greenland and Arctic ice
melt would affect the Gulfstream current which currently brings warmth
to western Europe. Oh, and the sea level rise is predicted by the
climate change models, due to glacial melt. And the climate change
model does not predict a longer growing season in the current temperate
zones, but shorter ones due to later spring frosts and earlier fall
frosts. That's not the same as an Ice Age.]
Lawrence Solomon: Proof that a new ice age has already started is
stronger than ever, and we couldn’t be less prepared
Lawrence Solomon | December 22, 2016 3:55 PM ET
“The New Little Ice Age Has Started.” This is the unambiguous title of a
new study from one of the world’s most prestigious scientific
institutions, the Russian Academy of Science’s Pulkovo Observatory in
St. Petersburg. “The average temperature around the globe will fall by
about 1.5 C when we enter the deep cooling phase of the Little Ice Age,
expected in the year 2060,” the study states. “The cooling phase will
last for about 45-65 years, for four to six 11-year cycles of the Sun,
after which on the Earth, at the beginning of the 22nd century, will
begin the new, next quasi-bicentennial cycle of warming.”
Habibullo Abdussamatov, the head of space research at Pulkovo and the
author of the study, has been predicting the arrival of another little
ice age since 2003, based on his study of the behaviour of the Sun’s
different cycles and the solar activity that then results. His model —
informed by Earth’s 18 earlier little ice ages over the past 7,500
years, six of them in the last thousand years — led to his prediction
more than a decade ago that the next little ice age would occur between
2012 and 2015. Unlike the global warming models of scientists, which
were soon disproved by actual measurements, Abdussamatov’s models have
been affirmed by actual events, including the rise of the oceans and the
measurable irradiance sent earthward by the sun. This record of accuracy
— which he has repeatedly demonstrated in studies between 2003 and now —
leads him to now confidently state that in 2014–15, we began our entry
into the 19th Little Ice Age.
Abdussamatov was once a lonely voice in the view that Earth could be
embarking on a prolonged cooling spell due to solar, not manmade,
factors. No longer. Because sunspots are eerily disappearing from the
face of our sun — just as they disappeared during the Little Ice Age in
the late 1600s — speculation of another cooling period has been
widespread by bodies such as the National Astronomical Observatory of
Japan and the Riken research foundation. Last year, a team of European
researchers unveiled a scientific model at the National Astronomy
Meeting in Wales predicting a “mini ice age” from 2030 to 2040 as a
result of decreased solar activity.
For one thing, we can deep freeze dreams of economically exploiting the
vast energy wealth of the Arctic Ocean, which geological surveys
indicate is the richest in petroleum of all the oceans. The conventional
belief that global warming would soon melt the Arctic, and make economic
the large-scale infrastructure needed to operate in its inhospitable
environment, had many in the oil industry — and in governments — gearing
up to claim their share of this new frontier. Their dreams will now need
to be set aside for the cold century ahead.
The “upcoming new Little Ice Age will have a very serious impact” on
energy security, Abdussamatov explains, because “deep cooling in the new
Little Ice Age in the middle of this century would make it almost
impossible to exploit offshore fields and pump oil and gas tens to
hundreds of kilometres from the coast at depths of hundreds of meters.”
Freezing conditions will also curtail energy developments elsewhere over
many decades, elevating the need for energy conservation in a much more
heat-needy world.
But Earth’s new climate will affect much more than the energy sector.
Abdussamatov leaves us with a dire warning.
“The world must start preparing for the new Little Ice Age right now.
Politicians and business leaders must make full economic calculations of
the impact of the new Little Ice Age on everything — industry,
agriculture, living conditions, development. The most reasonable way to
fight against the new Little Ice Age is a complex of special steps aimed
at support of economic growth and energy-saving production to adapt
mankind to the forthcoming period of deep cooling.”
An overheated planet has never been a threat, say climate skeptics, not
today, not ever in human history. An underheated planet, in contrast, is
a threat humans have repeatedly faced over the last millennium, and now
we’re due again.
“The upcoming climate change will be the most important challenge and a
priority issue for the world and define the main events in politics, the
economy, and the most important areas of the whole of humanity in the
coming decades,” Abdussamatov concludes. It’s time we took the threat of
climate change — of the real climate change — seriously.