https://www.pv-tech.org/news/irena-global-solar-months-away-from-sweeping-grid-parity
[images and links in online article]
IRENA: Global solar months away from sweeping grid parity
By José Rojo Martín May 30, 2019
Cheaper modules are setting the scene for grid parity to become the norm
for the global solar industry as early as next year, according to the
International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA).
The body reviewed thousands of renewable projects and PPAs and found 83%
of the utility-scale PV pipeline commissioned for 2020 will boast prices
lower than the cheapest fossil-fuel alternatives.
At US$0.048/kWh, the utility-scale PV costs now expected next year –
down from IRENA’s initial predictions of US$0.055/kWh – will see the
industry outcompete 700GW of operational coal-fired plants worldwide.
The findings, IRENA said, show solar PV can together with wind and CSP
become the “competitive backbone” of the energy transition. The global
community has now received a “clear signal” that low-cost clean energy
is a scalable solution, director-general Francesco La Camara said.
India and Italy cheapest, Canada and Russia priciest
IRENA’s review charted the major cost declines across key PV markets all
the way to 2018, a year when the industry represented 55% (94GW of
171GW) of all renewable installations.
The greatest cost drops between 2010 and 2018 were witnessed with Indian
(80%) and Italian (78%) utility-scale projects. This helped the Asian
and European state top G20 competitiveness charts last year, with costs
of US$793/kW and US$870/kW.
China (US$879/kW), France (US$1,074/kW) and Germany (US$1,113/kW)
followed suit, while the UK, Argentina, Mexico, Brazil, the US and
Australia proved slightly pricier, producing utility-scale PV costs in
the US$1,300/kW-US$1,550/kW range.
By far the most expensive G20 utility-scale PV hosts were, however,
Canada (US$2,427/kW), the Russian Federation (US$2,302/kW) and Japan
(US$2,101/kW). All three faced higher module, installation and margin
costs than was the norm elsewhere.
Module price declines ramp up last year
Cheaper modules were, IRENA found, a core driver of across-the-board PV
cost reductions. Prices of crystalline silicon modules, in particular,
declined much faster between December 2017 and December 2018 (26-32%)
than they had in the earlier 12 months (1-7%).
As of December 2018, IRENA said, benchmark module prices differed
between low-cost makers (US$216/kW) and their mainstream (US$306/kW),
high-efficiency (US$400/kW) and ‘all-black’ (US$420/kW) counterparts.
The findings around cost-competitive manufacturers come after many from
China and elsewhere showcased their products at this year’s Intersolar.
Some, Jetion Solar included, are positioning themselves to secure a
slice of a fast-reviving European PV market.
See here for the full version of IRENA's renewable cost update
[https://www.irena.org/publications/2019/May/Renewable-power-generation-costs-in-2018]
==========================================================================
https://www.forbes.com/sites/dominicdudley/2019/05/29/renewable-energy-costs-tumble/#4af48c47e8ce
[links in online article]
Renewable Energy Costs Take Another Tumble, Making Fossil Fuels Look
More Expensive Than Ever
Dominic Dudley
The cost of renewable energy has tumbled even further over the past
year, to the point where almost every source of green energy can now
compete on cost with oil, coal and gas-fired power plants, according to
new data released today.
Hydroelectric power is the cheapest source of renewable energy, at an
average of $0.05 per kilowatt hour (kWh), but the average cost of
developing new power plants based on onshore wind, solar photovoltaic
(PV), biomass or geothermal energy is now usually below $0.10/kWh. Not
far behind that is offshore wind, which costs close to $0.13/kWh.
These figures are global averages and it is worth noting that the cost
of individual projects can vary hugely – the cost of producing
electricity from a biomass energy plant, for example, can range from as
low as $0.05/kWh to a high of almost $0.25/kWh.
However, all these fuel types are now able to compete with the cost of
developing new power plants based on fossil fuels such as oil and gas,
which typically range from $0.05/kWh to over $0.15/kWh.
These figures are contained in the latest Renewable Power Generation
Costs report, released today by the Abu Dhabi-based International
Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA), an inter-governmental body with around
160 members.
The most attractive renewable energy sources, from a cost perspective,
are onshore wind and solar PV. IRENA says onshore wind costs of
$0.03-0.04/kWh are now possible in places with good natural resources
and the right regulatory and institutional frameworks.
It also points out that new solar PV projects in countries such as
Chile, Mexico, Peru, Saudi Arabia and the UAE have seen a levelized cost
of electricity of as low as $0.03/kWh – helped by the fact that
governments have been holding competitive bidding processes when
launching contracts to develop new power plants.
All this suggests IRENA was on the right track when it predicted early
last year that renewable energy should be consistently cheaper than
traditional fossil fuels by 2020.
Even the most expensive renewable energy technology, concentrated solar
power (CSP), is competitive against fossil fuels in some circumstances.
The cost of developing a CSP plant ranges from around $0.10/kWh to
$0.27/kWh, with an average price of around $0.18/kWh.
The ability of renewable energy to compete effectively against the older
fossil fuel technologies is coming as a result of consistent falls in
the cost of new plants. Last year alone, the global weighted-average
cost of electricity from bioenergy fell by 14%, while solar PV and
onshore wind costs dropped by 13% and hydropower fell by 11%. The
sharpest fall came in the cost of CSP plants, which dropped by 26%. The
cost of geothermal and offshore wind appeared to plateau though, with
costs edging down by just 1%.
IRENA says these trends are likely to continue over the next decade,
particularly for solar and wind power technologies. According to the
organisation's database, over 75% of the onshore wind and 80% of the
solar PV capacity due to be commissioned next year will produce power at
lower prices than the cheapest new coal, oil or natural gas options.
“Crucially, they are set to do so without financial assistance,” it noted.
Francesco La Camera, director general of IRENA, has suggested the
falling cost of renewable energy means it now ought to play a central
role in the wider efforts to tackle climate change.
"Renewable power is the backbone of any development that aims to be
sustainable", he said, in a statement issued to announce the publication
of the new report. "We must do everything we can to accelerate
renewables if we are to meet the climate objectives of the Paris Agreement.”
There are also geopolitical implications for the growing popularity of
renewable energy, with China likely to take a leading role in this area,
potentially at the expense of traditional oil and gas producers such as
the Middle East states.
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https://cleantechnica.com/2019/05/31/large-swaths-of-incoming-solar-onshore-wind-are-cheaper-than-fossil-fuels/
[links and images in online article]
Large Swaths Of Incoming Solar & Onshore Wind Are Cheaper Than Fossil Fuels
May 31st, 2019 by Joshua S Hill
A new report published this week by the International Renewable Energy
Agency has found that 77% of onshore wind projects and 83% of
utility-scale solar PV projects set to be commissioned in 2020 will be
cheaper than the lowest fossil fuel-fired generation prices.
The news has been heralded across the internet as a death-blow for the
global fossil fuel industry. According to the new report from the
International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA), entitled Renewable Power
Generation Costs in 2018, renewable energy is already the cheapest form
of electricity in many parts of the world and, with prices expected to
continue to fall, the cost advantage of renewable energy sources like
wind and solar will only continue to increase.
Based on a comprehensive review of data from projects around the world —
which saw IRENA analyze thousands of renewable energy projects and Power
Purchase Agreements (PPAs) from across the globe — the new report is
aimed at contributing to the international discussion on raising climate
action worldwide. The conclusion of the report is that its findings
serve to herald the strengthening of the business case for renewable
energy and solidifies the role that renewable energy sources will play
in the global energy transformation.
“Renewable power is the backbone of any development that aims to be
sustainable,” said IRENA’s Director-General Francesco La Camera. “We
must do everything we can to accelerate renewables if we are to meet the
climate objectives of the Paris Agreement. Today’s report sends a clear
signal to the international community: Renewable energy provides
countries with a low-cost climate solution that allows for scaling up
action.
“To fully harness the economic opportunity of renewables, IRENA will
work closely with our membership and key partners to facilitate
on-the-ground solutions and concerted action that will result in
renewable energy projects.”
The report’s analysis showed that the costs for renewable energy
technologies decreased to a record-low in 2018, with the global
weighted-average cost of electricity from concentrating solar power
(CSP) declining by 26%, bioenergy by 14%, solar PV and onshore wind by
13%, hydropower by 12%, and geothermal and offshore wind by 1%.
The report also showed that cost reductions, particularly for the solar
and wind sectors, are set to continue through the next decade. Hidden
somewhat by IRENA’s press release, but made abundantly clear in the
report’s “Key Findings,” is the already mentioned fact that, “Among
projects due to be commissioned in 2020, 77% of the onshore wind and 83%
of the utility-scale solar PV project capacity in the IRENA Auction and
PPA Database have electricity prices that are lower than the cheapest
fossil fuel-fired power generation option for new generation.”
Onshore wind and solar PV costs between three and four US-cents per
kilowatt-hour (US$0.03-4/kWh) are already possible in some areas of the
world — depending on resources and enabling regulatory and institutional
frameworks — with record-low auction prices for solar PV in Chile,
Mexico, Peru, Sauri Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates seeing a
levelized cost of electricity as low as US$0.03/kWh.
The report, available for free download here, also claims that “new
solar PV and onshore wind are expected to increasingly cost less than
the marginal operating cost of existing [coal-fired] power plants.”
Specifically, “In 2020, the weighted average PPA or auction price for
solar PV from projects in the IRENA database – USD 0.048 per
kilowatt-hour (kWh) – is expected to be less than the marginal operating
costs for around 700 gigawatts (GW) of operational coal-fired capacity
at the same time.” Onshore wind, coming in at US$0.045/kWh, is expected
to fall below the marginal operating costs of almost 900 GW of coal
capacity potentially online in 2020.
The even better news is that these cost reductions are only expected to
continue through the beginning of the next decade, with IRENA making the
bold claim that “Expectations about future cost reductions for solar PV
and onshore wind are once again being continually beaten by lower values
as new data becomes available.”
========================================================================
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