https://biv.com/article/2019/02/floods-could-cover-42-fraser-valley-natural-disaster-triggered-climate-change
[links in online article]
Floods could cover 42% of Fraser Valley in natural disaster triggered by
climate change: government
Food, energy, transportation security at risk in potential flooding,
with costs in the billions
By Jeremy Hainsworth | February 19, 2019, 10:30am
The Lower Mainland’s food security, transportation links and power
supplies are at risk if an estimated 42 percent of the Fraser Valley
floods as a result of climate-change-induced spring runoffs, government
documents say.
“The potential for flooding off the Fraser River caused by a rapid
snowmelt (freshet) is a seasonal threat that could impact almost 30,000
hectares (74,100 acres),” said a B.C. Agriculture & Food Action Climate
Initiative Dec. 14 request for proposals. The $77,500-budgeted plan is
to prepare a disaster mitigation toolkit for the agricultural sector.
That preparation plan price tag is in stark contrast to the estimated
worst-case scenario tab of $32.7 billion envisioned by the Fraser Basin
Council (FBC) for what could be Canada’s most-costly natural disaster.
A Fraser Valley Regional District (FVRD) report said climate change is
anticipated to increase annual water peak flows, and shift them to
earlier in the spring.
“A major flood event ... would cause over $800 million in damage to
farmers’ crops, buildings and equipment, and the agricultural losses and
associated spin-off impacts would have a have an economic impact of $1.1
billion on FVRD communities, the FVRD said.
Further, reports said, the combination of sea level increases and
runoffs could increase flooding as far inland as Mission.
Problems Recognized in 2011
As far back as 2011, the Ministry of Health recognized the threat
climate change poses.
“If global warming continues unabated, worsening climatic conditions in
B.C. are likely to adversely impact food security through: physical
degradation of land and water used in agriculture; biological changes
such as increased plant and animal pathogens in staple crops; and
destabilization of communities through degradation of local agriculture
and lost jobs and incomes, directly reducing the ability to purchase
food,” a ministry report said.
The threat has prompted the province to begin planning for managing
flood-damaged crops, handling livestock, risks to farms and ranches,
protection of farm structures, containing flood-borne contaminants and
maintaining essential services.
The region produces 90% of B.C.’s poultry products, 72% of dairy cows
and significant volumes of fruit and vegetables from outdoor or
greenhouse production, according to Ministry of Agriculture 2016 statistics.
The provincial Ministry of Agriculture said it’s committed to assist
food producers to ensure the food supply.
“Along with the federal government, we have invested approximately $3
million to help farmers and ranchers across the province prepare and
adapt to changing climate and weather conditions,” a ministry statement
said.
Regional agricultural strategies have also been developed in Peace,
Cariboo, Thompson-Nicola, Columbia-Shuswap, Lower Mainland, Vancouver
Island and Okanagan areas.
Agricultural producers did not respond to requests for comment.
Energy Security
It’s not just agriculture that is at risk. The Lower Mainland’s energy
security could also be in danger, with power lines from northern B.C.’s
massive Bennett Dam and various oil and gas pipelines, including the
controversial Trans Mountain Pipeline carrying oil from Alberta to
Burnaby, winding through the region.
The FBC report said all but one of BC Hydro’s 10 sub-regions have
transmission lines in areas vulnerable to flooding. While transmission
line towers are elevated, the bases are vulnerable to erosion that could
lead to their toppling.
“Foundations of transmission towers are undermined through erosion, or
if power lines or other infrastructure “If high-voltage lines are
downed, this could disrupt power to multiple substations and have
wide-ranging impacts, “ the report said.
Moreover, the report said, a loss of power to sewage plants could lead
to sewage backups and raw sewage flowing into the Fraser River or
directly to the Strait of Georgia.
BC Hydro media relations advisor Tanya Fish said the Crown corporation
has been modelling flood risk potential in the Lower Fraser Valley for
several decades.
That data has led to moves including raising or relocating power line
structures, reserving materials and equipment required for emergency
response and preparing stations and office buildings to prevent water
entry and inundation.
“Our steel transmission structures have robust foundations that are
either steel bolted to concrete or deep-buried steel lattice,” Fish
said. “Wood pole structures are buried deeply enough – based on the soil
conditions – to prevent movement.”
She added BC Hydro monitors snow survey bulletins and forecasts from the
BC River Forecast Centre and Emergency Management BC.
Trans Mountain spokeswoman Ali Hounsell said flooding potential is
factored into pipeline design. She said flood advisories and river flows
are monitored and that the company “engages with provincial emergency
management personnel when flooding is a threat. “
“We have assessed potential impacts from Fraser River flooding and have
instituted measures to protect the pipeline and pump station facilities
that could be threatened by flooding in the Fraser Valley,” Hounsell said.
Transportation Security
Flood waters also threaten rail and road transportation links running
close to the river.
The Ministry of Transportation and Infrastructure said in a statement
work is continuing with Emergency Management BC, local governments and
various agencies to determine how to manage transportation issues during
large-scale disasters. All highways are designated as emergency response
routes, and work is done with local governments to identify municipal
roads for emergency use.
The Regional Transportation Management Centre (RTMC) in Coquitlam would
lead response and recovery efforts of the transportation networks as
well as communicate to emergency responders.
Part of ministry planning has been to ensure all new bridges are built
to withstand a minimum estimated 200-year flood level.
Documents show the RTMC which is built to a 100-year flood level and
located 700 metres from the Fraser River at an elevation of 11 meters.
It is, however, constructed on a floating slab with 544 stone columns
enabling it to move with the ground during a seismic event and withstand
uneven settlement of soils under the foundation, the ministry said.
Canadian Pacific Railway spokesman Salem Woodrow said, “CP engages
regularly with local stakeholders in flood mitigation and emergency
preparedness,” while Canadian National Railway declined to comment.
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