https://nationalpost.com/news/politics/canada-further-from-paris-targets-than-last-year-new-projections-show
[With pro-oil governments now running most of the provinces, despite
most of those being oil importers and therefore are emptying their
coffers and the wallets of their citizens to finance the ever-unhappy 3
provinces which are net oil producers, it's not really a surprise that
on the whole, Canada is marching in the wrong direction on CO2 and other
GHG emissions. Which, somehow, federal politicians see as a success on
the climate change policy side.]
Canada further from Paris targets than last year, new projections show
McKenna was adamant that Canada will meet its Paris target of cutting
emissions to 30 per cent below 2005 levels by 2030
Maura Forrest
December 20, 2018
8:36 PM EST
OTTAWA — Canada is further away from meeting its emissions reduction
targets under the Paris agreement than it was a year ago, according to
new government projections, though Environment Minister Catherine
McKenna insists Canada will achieve its climate change goals.
New numbers released by Environment Canada on Thursday show that Canada
is on track to fall 79 megatonnes short of its 2030 greenhouse gas
emissions targets. That’s up from 66 megatonnes last year.
But the gap is arguably even larger than that, thanks to the Ontario
government’s decision to scrap the province’s cap-and-trade system. In
its projections, Ottawa compensated for that by including an estimate of
the carbon that will be stored naturally in forests and soils.
During a press conference in Ottawa on Thursday, McKenna was adamant
that Canada will meet its Paris target of cutting emissions to 30 per
cent below 2005 levels by 2030. “Our government will remain steadfast in
making progress on our climate plan with Canadians and reaching our
targets,” she said. “We’re looking at policies every single day that can
get us to a cleaner future.”
Ottawa is counting on improvements to public transit, new technology and
provincial and territorial efforts to close the 79-megatonne gap.
McKenna said a number of those measures are already underway but have
not yet been included in the government’s models that predict how
emissions will decline.
With that program scrapped, the federal carbon tax that is to be applied
in Ontario next year won’t make up the difference.
However, the federal government has this year included an estimate of
how much carbon might be stored in forests and soils in 2030 — about 24
megatonnes. That allows Ottawa to list its 2030 projection as 592
megatonnes, not 616 — still an increase from last year, but a smaller one.
The government is also estimating that Quebec’s cap-and-trade system,
which is linked to California’s, will contribute 13 megatonnes of
emissions cuts in 2030.
“We’re going to figure out the way forward in a cost-effective manner,
but we’re committed to meeting our target,” McKenna told reporters.
The new estimates come in the wake of an announcement earlier this week
that the federal government will spend $1.6 billion to support Alberta’s
struggling energy sector. Asked to reconcile Ottawa’s support for oil
and gas with her claim to be committed to Canada’s Paris targets,
McKenna said the country is in a “transition.”
“Transitions to a cleaner future are hard,” she said. “They don’t happen
from one day to the next.”
Also Thursday, the government said it will further loosen the standards
certain heavy industrial emitters will have to meet.
Last July, the government quietly announced that companies that emit 50
kilotonnes of carbon dioxide a year or more would only face penalties if
their emissions intensity were above 80 per cent of the average in their
sector. An initial proposal had placed the cap at a more stringent 70
per cent, but McKenna said the government didn’t want to drive industry
out of the country. Some sectors, including the cement industry, had
their threshold relaxed to 90 per cent.
Now, Ottawa has further loosened the threshold for the cement and lime
sectors to 95 per cent, and to 90 per cent for petrochemicals. Again,
government officials said the decision was related to competitiveness
concerns.
The pricing system for heavy emitters will apply to 74 sectors of the
economy, and will come into force on Jan. 1 in Ontario, New Brunswick,
Manitoba, Saskatchewan and Prince Edward Island. Companies that exceed
the threshold will have the option to cut their emissions, buy credits
to offset their emissions, or pay the federal carbon price.
The government will provide details of how the revenue from heavy
emitters will be used in the new year, officials said, adding that it
will be returned to the provinces and used to reduce emissions from
those industries.
The federal carbon tax, a separate measure, will come into effect in
April 2019 in Ontario, Saskatchewan, Manitoba and New Brunswick — the
four provinces that have refused to implement their own carbon prices.
The government has also released more information about its upcoming
clean fuel standard, which is intended to reduce emissions by 30
megatonnes annually through improvements to the carbon intensity of
fuel. It’s proposing to set a cap that would reduce the carbon intensity
of liquid fuels like gasoline and diesel by about 11 per cent by 2030,
which fuel suppliers can achieve in part by using higher blends of
low-carbon fuels like ethanol. Those who exceed the limit could purchase
offset credits.
Ottawa is planning to publish draft regulations for liquid fuels in
2019, and for solid and gaseous fuels in 2020. The fuel standard would
begin to come into force in 2022.
[Upstream emissions for oil sands crude are about 50% of the emissions
associated with burning the refined products made from it.
(https://www.nrcan.gc.ca/sites/www.nrcan.gc.ca/files/energy/pdf/eneene/pubpub/pdf/12-0614-OS-GHG%20Emissions_eu-eng.pdf)
So, assuming about 5 tonnes of GHG emissions per gasoline or diesel
vehicle per year from direct combustion, we can extrapolate to 8 tonnes
per vehicle-year if we add in the upstream refining emissions, and a bit
more for exploration, crude production energy use, transmission to
refineries and to retail locations. Given the Canadian target now is
517 Mt for 2030, and is now projected to be 722 Mt in 2030
(https://www.canada.ca/en/environment-climate-change/services/environmental-indicators/progress-towards-canada-greenhouse-gas-emissions-reduction-target.html)
The current projected shortfall is (722 - 517) 205 Mt. Switching out
gas/diesel burning vehicles (cars and light trucks) to zero-emissions
electric (assuming a near-zero emissions grid as is in place now in BC,
MB, ON, QC - over 85% of the country's population), would be managed
with just 24 million vehicles or equivalent. Which is just about
exactly the number of road vehicles registered in Canada in 2017
(https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/t1/tbl1/en/tv.action?pid=2310006701). So,
we have a big fleet to turn over, but with this single measure, we can
get Canada to its 2030 Paris Agreement target. Whatever we accomplish
via other sectors (household heating, electricity generation, reducing
fossil fuel production, etc.) can offset the ambitious vehicle
switch-over target.]
