https://cleantechnica.com/2020/02/11/arctic-permafrost-thawing-will-double-previous-carbon-emissions-estimates/
Arctic Permafrost Thawing Will Double Previous Carbon Emissions Estimates
February 11th, 2020 by Johnna Crider
A new study shows that the abrupt thawing of the Arctic permafrost will
double previous estimates of potential carbon emissions — carbon that
was once frozen in the permafrost ice. In fact, it is already changing
the landscape and ecology of the circumpolar north.
This study, by the Colorado University–Boulder, shows the difference
between gradual permafrost thaw and more abrupt types of permafrost thaw.
Lead author of the study, Merrit Turetsky, who is also the director of
the Institute of Arctic and Alpine Research (INSTAAR) at CU Boulder,
says that this abrupt thawing is “fast and dramatic, affecting
landscapes in unprecedented ways. Forests can become lakes in the course
of a month, landslides occur with no warning and invisible methane seep
holes can swallow snowmobiles whole.”
Why Does This Matter?
A devastating non-linear climate event is about to shock humanity
and it will probably have something to do with the Arctic.
1. 95% of old ice gone
2. ice free by 2021-2031
3. fastest warming place on Earth
4. CH₄ release now unprecedented
5. permafrost collapse is irreversible pic.twitter.com/oczDMJYXPS
— Ben See (@ClimateBen) February 8, 2020
The obvious thing to many of us is the issue of methane getting out into
the atmosphere and causing more warming, but there are other issues as
well. Think of the permafrost as the world’s largest freezer, one which
hasn’t been cleaned for millions of years. As the climate gets warmer,
the permafrost will melt. This will trigger a massive defrost that will
thaw out not just twice as much carbon that is in the atmosphere now,
but also the remains of life that once flourished in the Arctic. This
includes dead plants, animals, and microbes. This matter, which never
fully decomposed, has been locked away in this freezer for thousands of
years.
Turetsky also points out the obvious — these findings bring new urgency
and make the case that permafrost should be included in all types of
climate models. At present, there are no climate models that include
thermokarst and just a few that even consider permafrost thaw at all.
“The impacts from abrupt thaw are not represented in any existing global
model and our findings indicate that this could amplify the permafrost
climate-carbon feedback by up to a factor of two, thereby exacerbating
the problem of permissible emissions to stay below specific climate
change targets,” says David Lawrence of the National Center for
Atmospheric Research, who also co-authored the study.
Trotsky adds, “We can definitely stave off the worst consequences of
climate change if we act in the next decade. We have clear evidence that
policy is going to help the north and thus it’s going to help dictate
our future climate.”
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