[guide.chat] turkey syria crisis

  • From: vanessa <qwerty1234567a@xxxxxxxxx>
  • To: "GUIDE CHAT" <guide.chat@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
  • Date: Thu, 5 Jul 2012 11:41:25 +0100

Syria crisis: Turkey finds bodies of downed pilots - Wednesday 4 July 2012
? Turkish armed forces discover downed pilots on sea bed
? Splits in the opposition no excuse for inaction, says SNC
? Assad says Turkey party to the bloodshed in Syria
? Bahrain lobbies for seat on UN human rights body

A coastal guard vessel searches the area after a Turkish fighter plane was shot 
down by Syria in Hatay. Photograph: Hakan Goktepe/EPA

5.15pm: Here's a round-up of the latest developments:

Syria

? Divisions among the opposition should not be used to as cover for inaction by 
the international community, Khalid Saleh, an executive member of the Syrian 
National Council told the Guardian (see 10.24am).

? The Turkish military say they have located the bodies of the F-4 pilots who 
were shot down over the Mediterranean by Syrian forces last month (see 1.34pm).

? Turkish firefighters are tackling several forest fires which have reportedly 
spread over the border from Syria (see 3.11pm).

? The town of Izzaz close to the Turkish border has been under increasing 
bombardment from tanks and helicopters for six days, Turkish journalist Memet 
Aksakal reports, saying that he fears a massacre is about to take place (see 
4.46pm).

? Bashar al-Assad has accused Turkey's prime minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan of 
involvement in the violence in Syria by giving support to the rebels. In the 
second part of his interview with the Turkish daily Cumhuriyet, Assad also 
attacked the Turkish leader as a hypocrite. Meanwhile, the Turkish foreign 
minister accused Assad of lying.

? The UN's suspended monitoring mission in Syria will resume only when the 
violence decreases, said the head of mission general General Robert Mood (see 
12.11pm).

Bahrain

? The Bahraini government is lobbying for a seat on the UN Human Rights 
Council's advisory committee. Raza Kazim of the London-based Islamic Human 
Rights Commission urged other countries to block the bid because of Bahrain's 
"appalling human rights record". (see 9.25am).

Palestinian territories

? Yasser Arafat's personal belongings at the time of his death in 2004 suggest 
that his body contained abnormal levels of radioactive polonium, according to 
an investigation by al-Jazeera.

Libya

? Libyans living abroad have started voting in embassies and consulates in six 
countries, Canada, Dubai, Germany, Jordan, the UK and the USA, the Libya Herald 
reports.

4.46pm: Syria/Turkey: The town of Izzaz close to the Turkish border has been 
under increasing bombardment from tanks and helicopters for six days, Turkish 
journalist Memet Aksakal reports from the nearby border town of Killis, in 
Turkey.

He says he fears a massacre is about to take place in the town, under the noses 
of the Turkish military. Speaking via Skype, Memet who tweets under the name 
@Fixer_Turkey says:

At the moment when we look from the border we see black smoke rising from the 
town. We see sometimes helicopters but mostly it is being shelled by tanks.

Many people from the town are trying to escape, but they are scared to get out 
of their houses. So far 24 houses have been damaged by bombing. Yesterday we 
heard 10 children have been killed.

Yesterday and also today, helicopters were attacking.

I think there is a danger of a new massacre [in Izzaz]. It is on the main road 
from Turkey to Aleppo, but on both sides of the town the roads are block. 
People can't get out to escape. If Syria attacks strongly, it maybe a really 
big new massacre. But so far it doesn't look like Turkey will do anything [to 
stop it]. The situation is very serious there. The Free Syrian Army is 
controlling the city, and many of them are to the north of the Syria. There are 
some Syrian military inside the town, and they can't get out.


Turkish jets have been scrambled to the east and west of the area, but not near 
Izzaz itself, Memet said.

Turkish jets don't allow Syrian helicopters come within four miles of the 
border, he said.

The proximity of the smoke from shelling suggests that any buffer zone inside 
Syria does not extend as far as four miles. He said: "Maybe they don't allow 
helicopters to come that close, but tanks are definitely shelling much closer 
than four miles [from the border]."

The border crossing is deserted, and its unclear whether the Syrian army is in 
charge of the crossing point. "But most of the Izzaz area is controlled by 
rebels," he said

More Turkish troops and equipment have been deployed to the border area in the 
last week. "Turkey is just taking measures in case rebels come close to the 
border. It doesn't look like Turkey is preparing to attack Syria," Memet said.

3.48pm: Syria/Turkey: This Google map shows the locations of the cross border 
fire.


View Forest Fires in a larger map
The fire is reported to have started near Kesab in Syria and spread to east to 
Yayladagi in Turkey.

3.34pm: Tunisia: A commission charged with drafting new media laws has 
resigned, citing the lack of government will to create the institutions for a 
free press, AP reports.

The National Authority to Reform Information and Communication was tasked with 
writing new laws to regulate print and broadcast media in March 2011, replacing 
those of the deposed dictatorship.

The commission presented its laws in November. It said in Tuesday's statement 
that they have been ignored by the Islamist government elected in October.
It says that in the ensuing vacuum, the media scene has been invaded by outlets 
that ignore existing laws while the government arbitrarily appoints the heads 
of state media companies, just like the previous regime.

The commission says there was no valid reason to continue its mission.

3.24pm: Syria: Reuters reports another senior defection from the Syrian army.

A Syrian general from an engineering division defected to the opposition rebels 
and fled to Turkey on Wednesday, bringing the number of such top ranking 
officers given refuge on Turkish soil to 16, Free Syrian Army officials said.

Turkey now hosts some 250 officers who have defected to the FSA in its southern 
Hatay province and helps them with logistical support, though Ankara denies 
providing them weapons.

It did not name the officer. Meanwhile, the FSA has released what it claims to 
be footage of Shia officer, it named as Mazen Fawaz, announcing his defection.

3.11pm: Syria/Turkey: Activists from the countryside north of Latakia first 
posted footage of forest fires three days ago. They claim the fires were 
started by the security forces. A day later more footage showed an extensive 
mountainous area covered in smouldering fires.


Yesterday further video show billowing smoke close to a Kurdish village.

2.58pm: Syria/Turkey: Turkish firefighters are battling several blazes along 
the border, according to an update from AP.

Mehmet Harbi, a forestry official, claimed the fires were "deliberately 
started" at four different points on the Syrian side of the border and spread 
to Turkey due to strong winds.

Turkey's state-run TRT television said Syrian forces are believed to have 
started the fires to deny shelter to rebels along the border area. Harbi and 
TRT provided no evidence to substantiate their claims.

A Turkish helicopter also was fighting Wednesday's blazes, and an Associated 
Press reporter in the border town of Yayladagi said loudspeakers were used to 
call all males between the ages of 15 and 55 to help fight the fires.

2.41pm: Syria/Turkey: Activists near Latakia, where the forest fire reported to 
have stared, have uploaded footage of attempts to put out the blaze before it 
spread to Turkey.


The activists claim the fire has continue for four days.

2.22pm: Syria/Turkey: This is going to strain border tensions - a fire in Syria 
has spread across the border, the Turkish daily Zaman reports.

The Turkish Forestry Directorate has reported that more than 100 directorate 
workers and firemen have been trying to extinguish the fire. Officials added 
that they have deployed a helicopter to help fight the blaze, but that as a 
consequence of windy weather and the unwillingness of Syrian officials to help 
they are having some difficulty in containing the fire.

2.18pm: Syria: After the fracas in Egypt, there are renewed calls for the 
Syrian opposition to unite. But would that necessarily be a good idea? Some on 
Twitter think not.

@Doylech unification will make the opposition more mediocre than it is because 
positions will be watered down by consensus.

? atulaimat (@atulaimat) July 4, 2012

1.34pm: Syria/Turkey: More about the F-4 jet shot down by Syria last month. 
Turkey's armed forces command says it has found the bodies of both pilots on 
the seabed and is working to recover them.

The state-run TRT television says a US deep-sea exploration vessel, E/V 
Nautilus, found the bodies in eastern Mediterranean today, according to the 
Associated Press.

The wreckage is said to be some 1,000m (3,300ft) under water.

1.16pm: Syria/Turkey: Turkish journalist Mahir Zeynalov says the military have 
located the bodies of the F-4 crew shot down by Syria.

Turkish army says located bodies of two Turkish pilots killed by Syria on 
seabead after 13-day search and rescue operation.

? Mahir Zeynalov (@MahirZeynalov) July 4, 2012


12.40pm: Here's a round up of the main developments today:

Syria

? Bashar al-Assad has accused Turkey's prime minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan of 
involvement in the violence in Syria, by giving support to the rebels. In the 
second part of his interview with the Turkish daily Cumhuriyet Assad also 
attacked the Turkish leader as a hypocrite.

? Divisions among the opposition should not be used to as cover for inaction by 
the international community, Khalid Saleh, an executive member of the Syrian 
National Council told the Guardian. He admitted that the opposition had a big 
challenge to overcome differences on the details of a transition government 
after an opposition conference in Cairo ended in walkouts, fights, and a lack 
of agreement (see 10.24am).

? The UN's suspended monitoring mission in Syria will resume only when the 
violence decreases, said the head of mission general General Robert Mood. He 
also declined to end speculation about his own future as head of the mission, 
by stating that this was a matter for the security council (see 12.11pm).

? Turkey's foreign minister Ahmet Davutoglu said Syria's opposition should 
accept the idea of a transitional government agreed on the suggestion of 
international envoy Kofi Annan. He also accused Assad of lying by claiming that 
Syria had no idea that the jet it shot down last month was Turkish.

Bahrain

? The Bahraini government is lobbying for a seat on the UN Human Rights 
Council's advisory committee. Raza Kazim of the London-based Islamic Human 
Rights Commission urged other countries to block the bid because of Bahrain's 
"appalling human rights record". (see 9.25am).

Palestinian territories

? Yasser Arafat's personal belongings at the time of his death in 2004 suggest 
that his body contained abnormal levels of radioactive polonium, according to 
an investigation by Al-Jazeera. Tests reveal that Arafat's final personal 
belongings ? his clothes, his toothbrush, even his iconic kaffiyeh ? contained 
abnormal levels of polonium, a rare, highly radioactive element, it said.

Libya

? Libyans living abroad have started voting in embassies and consulates in six 
countries, Canada, Dubai, Germany, Jordan, the UK and the USA, the Libya Herald 
reports. There is no clear idea of how many expatriate Libyans there are, but 
the figure could be as high as one million, it says.

12.25pm: Syria: The state news agency Sana, has published a full English 
translation of the second part of Assad's interview with the Turkish daily, 
Cumhuriyet. The first part is available here.

Most of the second part of the interview involves a personal attack against 
Erdogan, the Turkish prime minister.

Assad said of Erdogan.

He had an agenda wider than the Syrian issue. It concerns his personal position 
and the position of his team. He wanted the terrorists to have a free hand in 
Syria, that they shouldn't be arrested or imprisoned, and that we do not defend 
ourselves ...

Erdogan is shedding the tears of hypocrites for the Syrian people. Why hasn't 
he cried for those killed in some Gulf countries, although they are innocent, 
peaceful and unarmed? Why isn't he speaking about democracy in some Gulf 
countries?

12.11pm: Syria: The UN's suspended monitoring mission in Syria will resume only 
when the violence decreases, the head of mission general General Robert Mood 
told a press conference in Damascus.

He also declined to end speculation about his own future as head of the 
mission, by stating that this was a matter for the security council.

"We are reviewing this [suspension] on a daily basis and immediately the 
conditions on the ground allow ... we will resume the mandated task," he said.


After meeting officials from the Syrian government, Mood said he "received from 
the government a very clear commitment on the six point [peace] plan." He did 
not elaborate.

He described last weekend's talks in Geneva as "difficult", and added: "There 
is this feeling that [there is] too much talk in nice hotels and too little 
action to move forward and stop the violence."

Asked if he was planning to resign, Mood smiled and then said: "The individuals 
in this mission and the mission itself has a mandated period that expires on 
the 20 July. We are all in this mission to serve the welfare of the Syrian 
people with all of our energies. What happens after the 20 July is for the 
security council to decide."

The UN blog Inner City Press, reported that Mood would not continue in the role 
after 20 July.

Rather than convert Mood's observer mission into an armed peacekeeping mission, 
as some had proposed, now Secretary General Ban Ki-moon intends to downgrade it 
to a "political mission" led by a civilians, even smaller than the current 300 
person UNSMIS.

To some this seems like throwing in the towel. A more cynical view is that some 
in the West and Gulf want things to get worse in Syria, either to justify 
further arming the rebels, or to intervene.

11.52am: Syria/Turkey: Turkish foreign minister Ahmet Davutoglu has disputed 
President Assad's claim that the Syrian forces "did not have the slightest 
idea" about the identity of the warplane that they shot down over the 
Mediterranean, Today's Zaman reports.

"He is definitely lying. Either the Syrian air defence systems are not as 
robust as he claims or what he says is a blunt lie," Davutoglu said in remarks 
published in the Vatan daily on Wednesday. He also insisted that Turkey had 
records indicating that the Syrian forces did identify the plane before 
shooting it down.

Turkey has insisted that the plane's electronic signals, which indicate if an 
aircraft is friend or foe, were activated during the entire flight and that 
Turkey intercepted radio communications in which Syrian forces referred to the 
plane. The Syrian forces referred to the plane using the Turkish word for 
"neighbour" in an intercepted radio conversation, according to a report 
published last week in the Turkish media ...

Responding to Assad's statement that the Turkish plane was using a corridor 
used by Israeli planes in the past, Davutoglu said: "Is there a corridor in 
Syrian airspace that belongs to the Israeli planes? If this is what he means ? 
then he admits that Syrian airspace is constantly violated by Israel. And if 
Israel is constantly violating Syrian airspace, how come no Israeli plane has 
been fired at?"

11.37am: Syria: Activists from the Syrian Revolution Coordination Committee in 
Douma have mapped what they claim is the army's siege of the Damascus suburb 
over the last few weeks.

The orange and blue symbols mainly represent reports of shelling. The red 
squares show sniper positions, and the black figures show military checkpoints. 
Helicopter attacks are also marked.


View Douma under fire in a larger map
By scrolling out you can see a wider view showing the positions from which the 
shelling was launched.

The Syrian troops were reported to have gained control of Douma over the 
weekend.

11.32am: Yemen: The internationally-backed "transition" plan which resulted in 
the removal of President Saleh last February has often been touted as a model 
for the way forward in Syria. However, the latest report from the International 
Crisis Group highlights a lot of shortcomings.

The nation essentially has witnessed a political game of musical chairs, one 
elite faction swapping places with the other but remaining at loggerheads ...

The settlement failed to resolve the highly personalised conflict between Saleh 
and his family on the one hand, and General Ali Mohsen al-Ahmar, as well as the 
powerful al-Ahmar family, on the other ...

Likewise, the underlying political economy of corruption has remained virtually 
untouched. The same families retain control of most of the country's resources 
while relying on patronage networks and dominating decision-making in the 
government, military and political parties.

For frustrated independent activists, the struggle at the top amounts to little 
more than a political see-saw between two camps that have dominated the country 
for some 33 years ...

The army is still divided, with warring commanders escaping the president's 
full authority. Armed factions and tribal groups loyal to Saleh, Ali Mohsen or 
the al-Ahmars remain in the capital; elsewhere the situation is far worse.

10.57am: Syria: Another colonel has announced his defection from the army, 
according to a clip from the Free Syrian Army.


It purports to show a colonel from the first armoured division from Houla, 
Homs. As usual the footage cannot be independently verified, but once again it 
does show a close-up of the man's identity card.

In his paper on the mounting pressure facing the Syrian army, the Washington 
Institute's Jeffrey White says it is facing a stream of defections.

But he also notes:

Some factors are still working to maintain military cohesion. Both the army and 
the regime retain the loyalty of Alawite personnel, very few of whom are known 
to have defected. Loyalty to the regime is a factor among soldiers of other 
persuasions as well, whether based on personal commitment or benefits in the 
form of position, privileges, or pay. Others fear the consequences of regime 
change or desertion and are therefore more motivated to remain united. In 
addition, because the war is not yet definitively lost, many soldiers - 
especially those with a stake in the regime - may still believe Assad will win.

10.35am: Syria/Turkey: Bashar al-Assad has accused Turkey's prime minister 
Recep Tayyip Erdogan of involvement in the violence in Syria, by giving support 
to the rebels.

In the second part of his interview with the Turkish daily Cumhuriyet 
Assad also accused the Turkish leader of being "two-faced" by pursuing a 
sectarian agenda in the region and trying to persuade Damascus to introduce 
political reforms while ignoring the killings and democratic shortfalls in Gulf 
Arab states.

A Reuters translation quotes Assad saying:

With his desire from the beginning to interfere in our internal affairs, 
unfortunately, in the subsequent period he has made Turkey a party to all the 
bloody acts in Syria. Turkey has given all kinds of logistical support to the 
terrorists killing our people.

If you go and ask Erdogan now, again he will say 'reform'. However, if he was 
sincere he would have said the things he is saying now during our meetings in 
2004. Now he is talking about all these reforms. There is a double standard 
here, a two-facedness."

By crying for the Syrian people in a two-faced manner, why isn't he also crying 
for those dying in the Gulf countries? Why isn't he interfering in those 
countries' problems with democracy?

A third instalment of the interview is due to be published tomorrow.

10.24am: Syria: Divisions among the opposition should not be used to as cover 
for inaction by the international community, according to Khalid Saleh, 
executive member of the Syrian National Council (SNC).

Saleh (no relation to the Homs activist, pictured above) conceded that the 
Cairo conference exposed disagreements among the opposition, particularly over 
details of a transition government.

"Agreement on the transitional plan is the biggest challenge. We are trying to 
work through that. I think we will have something finalised in the next few 
weeks," he said.

But Saleh said they were close to agreement on a national covenant.

"It is critical to have those two documents because everyone in the 
international community is looking to the Syrian opposition to produce those 
documents," he said.


He claimed that one of main positive outcomes of the conference was backing 
from the grass roots movements for the SNC. But some groups are refusing to 
accept the SNC as the umbrella organisation for the opposition.

"It is difficult. Syria is multi-ethnic country ... The Kurds wanted something 
specific about them. But that would open the door to too many things in a 
national pact," he said.

The grass roots activist group, the Syrian Revolution General Commission walked 
out because they felt there was an attempt at meeting to undermine the SNC, 
Saleh claimed.

He also said "great support" was expressed for the rebel Free Syrian Army 
during the meeting.

Saleh said the SNC was looking to this Friday's meeting of the Friends of Syria 
group to hear clear signals of support from the international community for the 
Syrian uprising.

The international community has a moral duty to show support for the Syrian 
people ....

It almost impossible to try and bring different opposition parties [together] 
and tell them to agree on the details. There is not a single united opposition 
movement in the whole world.

The international community is sometimes using the disunited opposition card to 
just cover up their inability to take hard decisions.

9.25am: Bahrain: The government is lobbying for a seat on the UN Human Rights 
Council's advisory committee when elections are held in September, according to 
documents seen by the Guardian.

A letter from Bahrain proposing its "entirely qualified" nominee, Saeed 
Mohammed al-Faihani, has been sent to the 57 member states of the Organisation 
of Islamic Cooperation seeking their support. The letter was circulated by 
Pakistan in its capacity as the OIC's coordinator.

Letters to the UN endorsing the Gulf kingdom's candidate have also been 
provided by Bahrain's National Institution for Human Rights and several local 
government-approved human rights organisations.

The move is seen as an attempt to clean up Bahrain's image and also to give it 
influence in human rights discussions at the UN.

Raza Kazim of the London-based Islamic Human Rights Commission (which showed 
the documents to the Guardian) said:

It's disgraceful that such a country with an appalling human rights record 
should be on the human rights advisory committee. We ask the UN and other 
countries around the world to reject Bahrain's application.

Countries with human rights abuses should not be allowed to use the United 
Nations Human Rights Council to wash away their crimes.

We will be launching a campaign to ensure that Bahrain is not allowed on the UN 
human rights advisory committee. To allow them a seat is to undermine the very 
notion of human rights. The leaked documents, exclusively obtained by IHRC, 
show that there needs to be more work done within the OIC on the issue of human 
rights, rather than promoting the application of a human rights violator.

The advisory committee acts as a thinktank for the UN Human Rights Council and 
its 18 elected members are regarded as "experts". Four seats will become vacant 
in September.

Current members include several from countries with a poor human rights record, 
among them China and Azerbaijan.

9.10am: Syria: The Spanish journalist Javier Espinosa, who escaped from Homs 
earlier this year, claims the destruction of the city is now worse than what he 
witnessed last year in the Libyan port of Misrata, which was besieged for 
months by Gaddafi's forces.

the devastation of #Homs is truly incredible, already exceeds the destruction I 
saw in Misrata #Libya #Syria youtube.com/watch?v=6QleQ8?

? JAVIER ESPINOSA (@javierespinosa2) July 4, 2012

8.58am: Syria/Jordan/Palestinian territories: The Jordanian authorities have 
forcibly returned some newly arriving Palestinians from Syria and threatened 
others with deportation, according to Human Rights Watch.

The group urged Jordan to treat all Palestinians from Syria seeking refuge in 
Jordan the same as Syrian asylum seekers.

Yesterday a UN official urged Jordan to open a refugee camp for Syrians fleeing 
the violence in their country.

Andrew Harper, the UN refugee agency's representative to Jordan, told AP: "We 
will have to do something pretty soon, because we've had 1,000 people arrive 
[Monday] night. Over the past four days, the numbers have doubled every night."

8.40am: (all times BST) Welcome to Middle East Live.

Here's a roundup of the latest developments and analysis

Syria

? A meeting of Syria's divided opposition in Cairo ended in scuffles, a walkout 
and failure to agree on a joint organisation to act as a united front. A Syrian 
Kurdish group quit the meeting, provoking mayhem and cries of "scandal, 
scandal" from delegates. An official from the Arab League, who attended the 
closed meetings, said "They are so different, chaotic and hate each other," 
according to Reuters. Al-Jazeera had more positive take on the meeting saying 
it agreed in general terms on support for the Free Syrian Army, the dissolution 
of the ruling Baath Party and the exclusion of Assad or other senior regime 
figures from a place in the transition.


Footage from Sky Arabia captured the chaotic scenes at the end of the meeting. 

? Turkey's foreign minister Ahmet Davutoglu said Syria's opposition should 
accept the idea of a transitional government agreed on the suggestion of 
international envoy Kofi Annan. But speaking to Sky News Arabia, he said 
President Bashar al-Assad should play no part in the transition.

? France's foreign minister, Laurent Fabius, revealed that Russia would not be 
attending a meeting of the western-Arab Friends of Syria grouping in Paris on 
Friday, even though there was an invitation. Moscow and Beijing accuse the US 
and its allies of pursuing "regime change" in Syria and insist that only 
Syrians can decide on the country's political future.

? The collapse of the Syrian army is accelerating, according to former defence 
intelligence officer Jeffrey White. Writing for the Washington Institute 
thinktank, he said

If the army cannot address these challenges, it will likely collapse, though 
precisely when is difficult to determine. The end could come in a rush or, more 
likely, through gradual disintegration.

Improving the Free Syrian Army's planning, intelligence, combat, and 
command-and-control capabilities would presumably speed this process even 
further. The endgame in Syria is likely to be messy and violent in any case, 
but accelerating the regime's fall could limit some of the damage. Beefing up 
the FSA's capacity would also put it a better position to deal with the 
post-Assad transition. Much of the regime will be swept away if the army 
breaks, and the opposition must have something ready to replace it.

Palestinian territories

? Yasser Arafat's personal belongings at the time of his death in 2004 suggest 
that his body contained abnormal levels of radioactive polonium, according to 
an investigation by Al-Jazeera.

Tests reveal that Arafat's final personal belongings ? his clothes, his 
toothbrush, even his iconic kaffiyeh ? contained abnormal levels of polonium, a 
rare, highly radioactive element. Those personal effects, which were analyzed 
at the Institut de Radiophysique in Lausanne, Switzerland, were variously 
stained with Arafat's blood, sweat, saliva and urine. The tests carried out on 
those samples suggested that there was a high level of polonium inside his body 
when he died.

Libya

? Libyans living abroad have started voting in embassies and consulates in six 
countries, Canada, Dubai, Germany, Jordan, the UK and the USA, the Libya Herald 
reports. There is no clear idea of how many expatriate Libyans there are, but 
the figure could be as high as one million, it says.

? Saturday's election would be a difficult to administer even with another year 
to prepare, writes election observer and former US diplomat Daniel Serwer. But 
despite the problems he remains upbeat:

Foreigners like me are not likely to be able to detect subtler efforts to 
influence the voting by militias and political parties, and in any event we can 
cover only a few of the many polling places, none of which are in the most 
insecure areas. But there are also local observers?both "party agents" and 
civil society representatives?who are far more likely to detect abuses. 
Hopefully the presence of internationals flying the banners of EU, the Arab 
League and The Carter Center will give courage to these local observers. The 
international presence should also encourage local election boards to try to 
execute their responsibilities in accordance with the elaborate procedures 
hurriedly put into effect. The High National Election Commission has issued 
more than 100 directives.

Why do we, and the Libyans, go to all this trouble? The answer is deceptively 
simple: legitimacy.

Iran

? The US and Iran have raised the military stakes in the Gulf as scientists 
from Tehran and six major powers gathered in Istanbul to try to resolve the 
Iranian nuclear impasse. The US has increased its military presence in the 
region, doubling the number of minesweepers while bringing in stealth warplanes 
partly as a deterrent to any Iranian attempt to close the Strait of Hormuz, a 
choke point on the Gulf through which a fifth of the world's oil supply flows. 
Meanwhile, as part of extensive war-games known as Great Prophet Seven, Iran 
test-fired an array of missiles on Tuesday, including the short-range Shahab 1 
and Shahab 2 and medium-range Shahab 3, which the state news agency Irna 
pointed out were capable of striking US ships in the Gulf.


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