A few people responded to my post last night about potential for more birds to
be around today.
The eBird forecast is essentially doing the same thing I was ... looking at
south winds (which will carry the most migrants) and where the migrants carried
by those winds will run into some sort of obstacle. In this morning's case, it
is the northish winds on the north side of the cold front, which is still
draped roughly east-west across southern Kentucky.
Winds all night at Bowling Green were light southwest or calm. Winds at
Louisville all night were light north, now changed to northeast and east. South
winds were stronger overnight closer to the Mississippi River; farther east
winds were mostly calm underneath the high pressure.
Light wind changes are going to affect smaller migrants (songbirds) more than
larger ones (most shorebirds). In order for us to detect a "wave" of migrants
in a fallout, something has to really knock a large number of birds down;
showers and headwinds are the two things that do that the most.
So it appears to me that it ended up that there weren't really strong pushing
winds to the south of much of KY, meaning there may not have been a really
heavy migration of birds to meet the north winds north of hte front. The
exception to that might have been out over west TN and southwest KY, where good
winds may have been shuttling a bunch of migrants that ran into light
headwinds. The north winds north of the front could have resulted in a
pronounced fallout in the LBL area?
It will be interesting to see what is seen across the state today as verifying
these possibilities.
bpb, Louisville
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