I found this post from South Carolina very interesting to help explain . From: Marilyn Westphal <mjwestph@xxxxxxxxxxxx> To: Harry LeGrand <hlegrandjr@xxxxxxxxx> Cc: Philip Dickinson <pdickins@xxxxxxxxxxxx>, John Fussell <jfuss@xxxxxxxx>, carolinabirds <carolinabirds@xxxxxxxx> Date: Sun, 9 Mar 2014 09:24:50 -0400 Subject: Re: Regarding the recent counts of Red-necked Grebes on inland lakes Bird migration being as complex as it is, it is fun to speculate. Checking through BNA and ebird and as mentioned by one carolinabirds contributor, Red-Necked Grebes are generally much more of an east-west migrant, but may be forced farther south some years of heavy lake freezing. Most generally winter along the northern US seacoast and migrate west across the Great Lakes in March and April. As I mentioned in an earlier email, this year in February the RN Grebe ebird reports were centered farther south along the Atlantic coast than reports from previous years in February. I speculate that this year they are starting from a more southerly position and moving over and stopping at more southerly and more populated areas than normal, thus many more reports than usual. Weather patterns and frozen water may have even pushed then farther south into the Carolinas during their movement. There are even more reports than usual now in some of the Great Lakes states probably because the RN Grebes can't use the Great Lakes as much and are forced to land in rivers and bays that are kept open by flowing river water or by ice-breakers, the kinds of areas they are more likely to be seen by birders. Diving ducks, of course as mentioned, are more limited to areas closer to shore because they feed off the bottom, so they can't move to deep open waters in the Great Lakes, so they probably did have to move to more inland or more southerly areas sooner than mergansers or grebes. Mergansers are more common in winter along the Great Lakes than RN Grebes in any year and maybe will also use rivers or open bays more readily than RN Grebes. I tend to doubt that grebes or mergansers would move way out to fish in deep waters of the Great Lakes when most of the lakes are frozen because I suspect the fish populations hanging out near the surface of the water way out there in the middle of the lakes aren't that great. The fish don't care if the surface is frozen over where they are closer to shore, so they aren't going to move out there. The Great Lakes aren't as biologically rich as the ocean. But I'm no Great Lakes fish expert, so maybe I will be corrected about that. I did grow up along the shores of Lake Michigan, though, so I'm quite familiar with frozen lakes. I do remember one winter when I was a teenager (long time ago) that Lake Michigan froze completely across, but this may be the first time since then that it has been so frozen over. So, the bottom line is that I think that the RN Grebes winter less in the Great Lakes to start with, this year they moved farther south along the ocean coast in late winter than usual, and they are migrating west from a more southerly route than usual and stopping in more inland and more populated areas than usual. That's just my speculation, though. I'm sure there are many other ideas out there. Marilyn