About a month ago I posted a note that read, in part: "I'd long suspected that I underestimated flock size. This fall/winter I conducted an experiment where I took photos of various flocks of waterfowl. I made note of my estimates, and then later counted the individual birds in the photos. I found out that I was pretty consistently underestimating flock size by about 50%." I guess I'm still underestimating by 50%. I was the one who guessed 300 birds, pretty much *exactly* half of the actual number of birds in the photo!! Pretty weird... Bernie Sloan Milwaukee --- On Thu, 2/10/11, Ryan Brady <ryanbrady10@xxxxxxxxxxx> wrote: From: Ryan Brady <ryanbrady10@xxxxxxxxxxx> Subject: [wisb] Re: Counting Game - Bohemian Waxwings - ANSWER To: wisbirdn@xxxxxxxxxxxxx Date: Thursday, February 10, 2011, 1:06 PM Photo was viewed 215 times and I got 26 replies, many of which were quite good. The correct answer is 601 birds (plus/minus a couple). 17 respondents underestimated, 3 were pretty much right on, and 6 guessed high. The median was 550 and the mean 635, which is pretty impressive! All the responses are below. I have no idea how long folks spent guessing/counting but the birds were in this flight view for about 5-10 seconds, so judge yourself accordingly. And if you ever need anything counted, John Leonard, Claudia Giamati, and Karen Etter Hale are your go-to people, as each guessed 600 birds! Including birds not pictured, this flock was about 800+ birds, by far the largest I've seen here this season. 101 300 338 410 430 430 450 450 490 500 517 525 550 550 560 568 570 600 600 600 630 660 705 898 1100 3000 Ryan Brady Washburn, Bayfield County, WI http://www.pbase.com/rbrady > From: ryanbrady10@xxxxxxxxxxx > To: wisbirdn@xxxxxxxxxxxxx > Subject: [wisb] Counting Game - Bohemian Waxwings > Date: Tue, 8 Feb 2011 11:34:32 -0700 > > > Here's a poor photo I took on Sunday showing part of a large flock of > Bohemian Waxwings near Ashland. Take an initial guess and/or make a quick > systematic estimate as if you saw the birds flyby in the field and then email > me your answer. I've painfully counted them all and will post an answer in a > few days. > > http://www.pbase.com/image/132395650 > > > Ryan Brady > Washburn, Bayfield County, WI > http://www.pbase.com/rbrady > > > > > > > > > From: ryanbrady10@xxxxxxxxxxx > To: wisbirdn@xxxxxxxxxxxxx > Subject: Counting Bohemian Waxwings > Date: Fri, 14 Jan 2011 14:06:51 -0700 > > > > > Hi folks, this is more a cautionary heads-up than anything else but with all > the Bohemian Waxwing reports of 100, 250, 300 birds etc. and plenty more to > be seen yet this winter and spring I'm curious as to whether folks are making > actual counts, systematic estimates, or gross estimates of overall flock > size? In my experience, birders (myself included) vastly underestimate flock > size in this species, often upwards of 40-70%, i.e. a flock estimated at 100 > often has 140-170+ birds. Don't ask me why but without alot of experience > it's very difficult to correctly gauge numbers of this species without > actually counting, or at least more systematically estimating (e.g. 5, 10, 20 > birds at a time). So I challenge you the next time you're up north to first > estimate flock size as we often do and then make an actual count. My money > says there will be far more birds than you thought! > > > Ryan Brady > Washburn, Bayfield County, WI > http://www.pbase.com/rbrady #################### > You received this email because you are subscribed to the Wisconsin Birding > Network (Wisbirdn). > To UNSUBSCRIBE or SUBSCRIBE, use the Wisbirdn web interface at: > //www.freelists.org/list/wisbirdn. > To set DIGEST or VACATION modes, use the Wisbirdn web interface at: > //www.freelists.org/list/wisbirdn. > Visit Wisbirdn ARCHIVES at: //www.freelists.org/archives/wisbirdn. > > #################### You received this email because you are subscribed to the Wisconsin Birding Network (Wisbirdn). To UNSUBSCRIBE or SUBSCRIBE, use the Wisbirdn web interface at: //www.freelists.org/list/wisbirdn. To set DIGEST or VACATION modes, use the Wisbirdn web interface at: //www.freelists.org/list/wisbirdn. Visit Wisbirdn ARCHIVES at: //www.freelists.org/archives/wisbirdn. ____________________________________________________________________________________ Be a PS3 game guru. Get your game face on with the latest PS3 news and previews at Yahoo! Games. http://videogames.yahoo.com/platform?platform0121 #################### You received this email because you are subscribed to the Wisconsin Birding Network (Wisbirdn). To UNSUBSCRIBE or SUBSCRIBE, use the Wisbirdn web interface at: //www.freelists.org/list/wisbirdn. To set DIGEST or VACATION modes, use the Wisbirdn web interface at: //www.freelists.org/list/wisbirdn. Visit Wisbirdn ARCHIVES at: //www.freelists.org/archives/wisbirdn.