With gusts of 70 miles per hour, Gustav is brushing Hatteras Island and
moving slowly northward along the Outer Banks of North Carolina this evening.
By this time tomorrow, the tropical storm is forecast to be well out to sea
to the northeast, as all the computer models predict (
http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at200208_model.html).
Brian Patteson has not seen evidence along the Banks this afternoon that any
seabirds have come ashore or into the sounds as a result of Gustav's winds,
but he adds that checking the beaches was nearly impossible, owing to beach
closures and heavy rains most of the afternoon. Weak feeder bands are just
beginning to brush the Eastern Shore now (around 2000 hours).
Because this storm will likely pass entirely to the east of the state of
Virginia, it is unlikely we'll see tropical terns, tubenoses, or other
storm-related seabirds in the state's interior or along the coasts. Because
a small portion of any population of seabirds is likely to be in poor health,
however, there is a chance that the southeastern beaches (Sandbridge, Back
Bay, False Cape), and possibly points north, could host a weakened waif or
two. The most likely birds to be displaced by such a weak storm passing off
to our east would be terns of various sorts, most of which can be seen easily
onshore in any case. But a few terns that are largely or entirely pelagic
(Arctic, Roseate, Black, Sooty, Bridled) could put in an appearance somewhere
on the immediate coast, and these should be looked for, when conditions
permit. Jaegers are also a possibility. It's most likely that such birds
would be seen just at daybreak or in the hour or two afterward, as they would
roost on the beaches overnight and return to the sea after the wind abates in
the morning. Or at least past experiences suggest that this is plausible.
Ned Brinkley
Cape Charles, VA
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