This article is parallels what I said last week about our future if the
Nativists manage to control immigration. Both the workforce and economic
growth will suffer. We have one advantage--people want to move here. Once
they get here, either they or their children are likely to get educated and
continue to improve our nation. The other issue mentioned in the article is
social support for the sick and for seniors. If there is not enough money
going to taxes, who will pay to take care of us? Our children will be too busy
supporting themselves. Eric
SHARESHARE
Of all the major uncertainties about China’s future, the country’s demographic
outlook is the least uncertain. Most of the people who will be living in China
in, say, 2040 are already alive there today. Population projections are far
from error-free, but if we are trying to peer ahead a couple of decades, they
are more reliable than estimates for economic change, much less political or
technological change. And what the population projections show is that the
situation for China is dire.
In the early 1990s, China’s fertility rate dropped below the replacement level
of 2.1 babies born to each woman on average over her lifetime. Last year it
fell to 1.3, according to Chinese census data released last month, and by 2040
it will have been below replacement for almost half a century. Small families
make gray societies. Two generations of very low fertility will raise China’s
median age to at least 48, which is where famously aging but far richer Japan
is today.
[https://www.discoursemagazine.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/06/Nurseries-300x279.png]China
is a low-migration, low-mortality, low-fertility society, so there is little
turnover in the population from one year to the next. But there will be a huge
turnover in the population’s composition in the next two decades.
________________________________
From: uupretirees-bounce@xxxxxxxxxxxxx <uupretirees-bounce@xxxxxxxxxxxxx> on
behalf of hils. <dmarc-noreply@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Sent: Friday, June 11, 2021 6:39 AM
To: uupretirees@xxxxxxxxxxxxx <uupretirees@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Subject: [uupretirees] A Demographic Predicament Will Plague the Mainland for
Decades - Discourse (discoursemagazine.com)
"Of all the major uncertainties about China’s future, the country’s demographic
outlook is the least uncertain. Most of the people who will be living in China
in, say, 2040 are already alive there today. Population projections are far
from error-free, but if we are trying to peer ahead a couple of decades, they
are more reliable than estimates for economic change, much less political or
technological change. And what the population projections show is that the
situation for China is dire."
Bob Kasprak
============================
The China Challenge: A Demographic Predicament Will Plague the Mainland for
Decades - Discourse
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