What category does the Vermillion Flycatcher that was located by Nancy Moore at Reelfoot Lake a few years fall into???
Jesse Livingston, Troy, TN
I personally think any arctic/boreal bird, any waterfowl, and any seabird that has occurred before has a high likelihood of eventually turning up again. As for Hooded Crane, the population of Common Cranes is a lot bigger and a lot closer to Alaska, yet we still lack that one, so I doubt there will be another Hooded Crane found here "ever again." Whatever that means. Of course that same individual still might turn up again next year after spending this winter somewhere else that it hasn't been detected.Variegated Flycatcher is really so easy for number one, the contest is for number 2. Caribbean Coot is off the list everywhere, none of them were real. Somehow my gut feeling is Greater Shearwater, that just feels like the least likely of the tubenoses to show up again. And I would not be surprised if the Shiny Cowbird "invasion" fizzled completely and another one of those never appeared. But frankly, I'd not be surprised if just about every bird currently on the list except for the flycatcher were to make another appearance in the next decade or two.Bill Pulliam Hohenwald TN On Jan 14, 2013, at 7:34 PM, Scott Somershoe wrote: Ok, here's a few of my thoughts.1. Variegated Flycatcher is my pick for least likely to visit TN again. 2. Caribbean Coot - really? How'd we even get one? 3. Sage Thrasher 4. Gyrfalcon 5. Black-throated Sparrow Honorable mention, but pretty unlikely in my mind: Wilson's PloverGroove-billed Ani - although they are found in the mid-west and Gulf coast as vagrants, for some reason I'm voting against this one (ok, one will now turn up in TN within 2 years!).Limpkin - I'm still blown away by the 2 records we have. Didn't make the honorable mention list:I couldn't include King Eider since Pensacola FL had a bird (I think) last winter. With crazy things going on in the Arctic, I think Ivory Gull has an outside chance of a second appearance, esp. after the GA/AL bird a few years ago. Northern Shrike is possible, if we look closely in say Robertson Co and other counties that border KY, since they are in KY periodically and Peabody WMA (where this years bird is/was) isn't that far from TN. Hooded Oriole will likely reappear since there are a variety of records in the east. I guess Hooded Crane again is almost as likely as a Common Crane turning up (and that will happen, eventually).As unlikely as the Skua and Great Shearwater are for a repeat, one more good storm could bring those goodies up (I'm hoping anyway!).Thanks for the rainy day game Dean. Fun to contemplate. Scott SomershoeOn Mon, Jan 14, 2013 at 4:20 PM, Chris Sloan <csloan1973@xxxxxxxxx <mailto:csloan1973@xxxxxxxxx>> wrote:Were it on the official list (or if it is added), I would put the Hooded Crane at the top, but since we're only going by the official list, in my opinion the Ivory Gull has to be at the top of the list, followed closely by South Polar Skua and Great Shearwater. After that, I'd probably go with Variegated Flycatcher and then Black-throated Sparrow, followed by Sage Thrasher, King Eider, Limpkin. I don't include Gyrfalcon or Pine Grosbeak in the candidate list, because both are provisional on the state list. Some others I'd put in as candidates: Hooded Oriole (which in my opinion was erroneously rejected by the TBRC), Barnacle Goose, and Anna's Hummingbird. Chris Sloan Nashville, TN http://www.chrissloanphotography.com On Mon, Jan 14, 2013 at 3:52 PM, <kde@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx <mailto:kde@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>> wrote: Here's a fun rainy day game. We often try to predict the next bird to be added to the state list, but what bird already on the official state list do you think is least likely to be seen in TN again? I remember playing this game with Chris Sloan long ago. He said Limpkin (and noone disagreed with him) and we had 2 records within the next few years. Give your top five. No fair including Carolina Parakeet or Passenger Pigeon. The extirpated Greater Prairie-Chicken is a pretty sure 'gimmee' too so let's exclude it (unless someone wants to make a case), but maybe not Red-cockaded Woodpecker... I would probably put it as more likely than some of the other species on the list. The up-to-date official TN state list can be found here... http://www.tnbirds.org/TBRC/TBRC_checklist.html I'll go with (excluding Greater Prairie-Chicken): 5 - King Eider (narrowly edging Wilson's Plover on my list) 4 - Band-tailed Pigeon (they do wander though) 3 - Ivory Gull 2 - Gyrfalcon 1 - Variegated Flycatcher Honorable mention: Barnacle Goose & Garganey (would they be accepted as wild?) Northern Shrike & Pine Grosbeak (the shrike made it KY this year) Groove-billed Ani (they wander but not as common as in the past) Shiny Cowbird (failed to establish?) Limpkin (c'mon, man!) Lots of other rare birds on there worth mentioning. Dean Edwards Knoxville, TN
