I saw the GA South Polar Skua (SPSK), but as I recall, it was found after passage of a tropical storm. There are other, inland reports of SPSK from coastal states following storms and even one truly inexplicable, photographed record from North Dakota. On the Hooded Crane, there are at least 4 NAm sightings including one in Indiana last year shortly after the TN bird disappeared that was was almost certainly the same bird. Given the longevity of individual cranes, I rate the odds of this particular bird returning to TN some day higher than another Varieagated Flycatcher showing up. Anyway, it is not on the official list (yet?) so bit of a moot point for this game. On a side note, I had an impressive (to me) 7 towhees at the feeders at once this morning. Sadly none were overly spotted nor had green tails or even white eyes. Dean Edwards Knoxville, TN On Tue, 15 Jan 2013, Bill Pulliam wrote: > But with South Polar Skua, remember the non-hurricane-related bird in the Blue > Ridge Foothills of north Georgia a few years ago. Origin inexplicable, yet > there it was. > > Getting down to the nitty gritty, other than the one-maybe-soon-to-be-two > biggies, I don't see any non-extinct birds on the TN list that I would really > put money on NOT showing up again in the next 30 years (after that I'll > probably not be around to pay off any bets). Even the Prairie-Chicken could > be reintroduced. TN birders have gotten awfully good at finding rarities, and > I expect the trend will continue. > > Bill Pulliam > Hohenwald TN > > > On Jan 15, 2013, at 12:33 PM, Dev Joslin wrote: > > > > Thanks Dean, for this! > > > > As a non-expert with limited experience with these, I tried looking at this > > strictly geographically, that is, distance from other sightings in this > > hemisphere (and their frequency--see The Sibley Guide): > > 1. Hooded Crane > > An Asian bird (Siberia, Japan, Korea, China) with only one other > > sighting in North America besides the Tenn. sighting, which was probably the > > same bird. Almost all the other species mentioned have been sighted quite a > > few times elsewhere in North America. But this species is not only strictly > > Asian, but also threatened (only 9,500 birds remaining). > > 2. Variegated Flycatcher > > A South American bird with only two other ABA records, according to Mike. > > Only one record for Panama and none for Costa Rica. > > 3. South Polar Skua > > Does inhabit Atlantic waters in summer, but strictly as a pelagic. > > > > Dev Joslin > > Monteverde, Costa Rica > > > > Date: Tue, 15 Jan 2013 09:28:38 -0800 > > From: birder1@xxxxxxxxxxxxx > > Subject: [TN-Bird] Re: Least likely TN bird? > > To: kde@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx; tn-bird@xxxxxxxxxxxxx > > > > These topics are always a lot of fun. Most of the birds on TN's list, even > > the accidentals, have a history of vagrancy so aren't really that big a > > surprise. Of course, as has been mentioned, some of the hurricane birds you > > can just never tell about. > > > > I will agree that if it is accepted, the Hooded Crane should get top billing > > in this list. > > > > Of current species, I would have to vote the Variegated Flycatcher being > > least likely to repeat ( very little personal bias involved with this > > decision....just kidding). At the time it was just the 2nd ABA record, which > > is pretty rare in itself for an interior state to have. Since then, I think > > there have only been 2 others in the ABA. At the time Jeff found the Ivory > > Gull, it was an insane record. I still think that even with the recent GA > > bird, I would place it next. Of the hurricane birds, I would place South > > Polar Skua as least likely to repeat (especially on a hurricane coming out > > of the Gulf like it did!). Shiny Cowbird I don't expect again anytime soon. > > Of the waterfowl, King Eider would get my vote, though it is certainly > > possible again. Barnacle Geese are showing up more in the east now, > > presumably wild birds, and there was one in AR a couple of years ago. > > Gyrfalcon is a long shot to me. > > > > Regarding the Eurasian Wigeon, there have been at least a couple of others > > the last 10 years or so, I photographed one at Britton Ford (I think someone > > else saw it, not sure though) back in '03 I think, and I'm pretty sure Jeff > > had one in Memphis in this timeframe. I was surprised a couple of years ago > > when Jeff and I found one in AR, that it was possibly their first. > > > > Mike Todd > > McKenzie, TN > > birder1@xxxxxxxxxxxxx > > www.pbase.com/mctodd > > > > > > From: "kde@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx" <kde@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx> > > To: Tennessee Birds <tn-bird@xxxxxxxxxxxxx> > > Sent: Mon, January 14, 2013 3:58:07 PM > > Subject: [TN-Bird] Least likely TN bird? > > > > > > Here's a fun rainy day game. We often try to predict the next bird to be > > added to the state list, but what bird already on the official state list > > do you think is least likely to be seen in TN again? I remember playing > > this game with Chris Sloan long ago. He said Limpkin (and noone disagreed > > with him) and we had 2 records within the next few years. > > > > Give your top five. > > > > No fair including Carolina Parakeet or Passenger Pigeon. The extirpated > > Greater Prairie-Chicken is a pretty sure 'gimmee' too so let's exclude it > > (unless someone wants to make a case), but maybe not Red-cockaded > > Woodpecker... I would probably put it as more likely than some of the > > other species on the list. > > > > The up-to-date official TN state list can be found here... > > > > http://www.tnbirds.org/TBRC/TBRC_checklist.html > > > > > > I'll go with (excluding Greater Prairie-Chicken): > > > > 5 - King Eider (narrowly edging Wilson's Plover on my list) > > 4 - Band-tailed Pigeon (they do wander though) > > 3 - Ivory Gull > > 2 - Gyrfalcon > > 1 - Variegated Flycatcher > > > > Honorable mention: > > Barnacle Goose & Garganey (would they be accepted as wild?) > > Northern Shrike & Pine Grosbeak (the shrike made it KY this year) > > Groove-billed Ani (they wander but not as common as in the past) > > Shiny Cowbird (failed to establish?) > > Limpkin (c'mon, man!) > > > > Lots of other rare birds on there worth mentioning. > > > > > > Dean Edwards > > Knoxville, TN > > > > > > =================NOTES TO SUBSCRIBER===================== The TN-Bird Net requires you to SIGN YOUR MESSAGE with first and last name, CITY (TOWN) and state abbreviation. 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