[spotters-illianaskywarn] Fwd: NOAA's National Weather Service SPC Mesoscale Discussion Update
- From: Keith Reedy <keithreedy@xxxxxxxxxxxx>
- To: "spotters-illianaskywarn@xxxxxxxxxxxxx" <spotters-illianaskywarn@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
- Date: Sun, 24 Mar 2013 17:02:28 -0400
Keith Reedy
keithreedy@xxxxxxxxxxxx
Begin forwarded message:
> From: "GovDelivery Weather Updates" <weatherupdates@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> Subject: NOAA's National Weather Service SPC Mesoscale Discussion Update
> Date: March 24, 2013 3:51:29 PM EDT
> To: keithreedy@xxxxxxxxxxxx
> Reply-To: weatherupdates@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
>
>
>
> You are subscribed to SPC Mesoscale Discussion for NOAA's National Weather
> Service.
> GovDelivery provides this service using unaltered NOAA/NWS products.
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> SPC MD 326
> 03/24/2013 03:38 PM EDT
>
> MD 0326 CONCERNING HEAVY SNOW FOR CNTRL INDIANA
>
>
> MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0326
> NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
> 0237 PM CDT SUN MAR 24 2013
>
> AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL INDIANA
>
> CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW
>
> VALID 241937Z - 242330Z
>
> SUMMARY...HEAVY SNOW WILL OVERSPREAD CNTRL INDIANA DURING THE
> MID/LATE AFTERNOON HOURS -- PRIMARILY AFTER 2030Z -- WITH RATES OF 1
> TO LOCALLY 2 IN/HR LIKELY.
>
> DISCUSSION...BANDS OF HEAVY SNOW WILL DEVELOP EWD/ENEWD FROM CNTRL
> IL AND OVERSPREAD CNTRL INDIANA AFTER 2030Z. THIS SNOW IS IN
> ASSOCIATION WITH STRONG DEEP ASCENT TO THE N OF A MID-LEVEL JET
> MAX/DRY SLOT THAT IS SURGING EWD THROUGH THE LOWER OH VALLEY AND MID
> SOUTH. N OF THIS FEATURE...ASCENT ACCOMPANYING MODEST FRONTOGENETIC
> CIRCULATIONS WILL AUGMENT STRONG DCVA AT THE ENTRANCE REGION OF THE
> JET MAX TO MAINTAIN EFFICIENT PRECIP GENERATION. THIS WILL
> ESPECIALLY BE THE CASE AS GPS DATA INDICATE 0.5-0.7-INCH PW VALUES
> EXTENDING INTO THE REGION WITHIN A WARM CONVEYOR BELT THAT LEADS THE
> JET MAX/DRY SLOT. WHILE LOW-LEVEL THERMAL PROFILES ARE INITIALLY
> WARM FOR SNOW...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 70
> CORRIDOR...ADIABATIC COOLING ASSOCIATED WITH THE FORCED ASCENT
> COMBINED WITH LOW-LEVEL EVAPORATIVE COOLING WILL ALLOW WET-BULB ZERO
> HEIGHTS TO QUICKLY DESCEND SUFFICIENTLY TO SUPPORT HEAVY SNOW
> SUCCEEDING THE ONSET OF PRECIP.
>
> FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT THE STRONG ASCENT WILL BE
> SUPERIMPOSED WITH SATURATED DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONES WITHIN THE
> 600-500-MB LAYER TO SUPPORT EFFICIENT SNOW GROWTH. SNOW RATES OF 1
> TO LOCALLY 2 IN/HR WILL BE LIKELY...AND AN ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKE
> OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE
> HIGHEST...CONVECTIVELY ENHANCED SNOW RATES. SUCH RATES ARE ALSO
> SUPPORTED BY THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS AMONGST THE LATEST
> HIGH-RESOLUTION WRF GUIDANCE. THE HEAVY SNOW...WITH SIMILAR
> RATES...WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS AS ASCENT
> ACCOMPANYING THE DEFORMATION ZONE N/NW OF THE MID-LEVEL CYCLONE
> TRACKS ACROSS THE REGION.
>
> ..COHEN.. 03/24/2013
>
> ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
>
> ATTN...WFO...ILN...IWX...IND...LOT...
>
> LAT...LON 39268595 39198689 39438746 39788711 40148700 40488718
> 40878685 40838616 40568531 40198511 39658526 39268595
>
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