[spotters-illianaskywarn] Fwd: NOAA's National Weather Service SPC Mesoscale Discussion Update
- From: Keith Reedy <keithreedy@xxxxxxxxxxxx>
- To: "spotters-illianaskywarn@xxxxxxxxxxxxx" <spotters-illianaskywarn@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
- Date: Thu, 20 Dec 2012 13:32:47 -0500
Keith Reedy
keithreedy@xxxxxxxxxxxx
Begin forwarded message:
> From: GovDelivery Weather Updates <weatherupdates@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> Subject: NOAA's National Weather Service SPC Mesoscale Discussion Update
> Date: December 20, 2012 1:16:10 PM EST
> To: keithreedy@xxxxxxxxxxxx
> Reply-To: GovDelivery Weather Updates <weatherupdates@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
>
>
>
> You are subscribed to SPC Mesoscale Discussion for NOAA's National Weather
> Service.
> GovDelivery provides this service using unaltered NOAA/NWS products.
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>
> SPC MD 2194
> 12/20/2012 01:11 PM EST
>
> MD 2194 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR CNTRL IND
>
>
> MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2194
> NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
> 1210 PM CST THU DEC 20 2012
>
> AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL IND
>
> CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
>
> VALID 201810Z - 202015Z
>
> PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT
>
> SUMMARY...AN ISOLATED SVR WIND THREAT MAY OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON. THE
> ISSUANCE OF A WW IS UNLIKELY.
>
> DISCUSSION...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL TRACK ENEWD ACROSS PARTS OF
> CNTRL IND THIS AFTERNOON WHILE A SFC LOW SHIFTS NEWD TOWARD CHICAGO.
> A NARROW CORRIDOR OF SFC HEATING OWING TO POCKETS OF INSOLATION
> AMIDST UPPER 40S SFC DEWPOINTS IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT IS SUPPORTING
> VERY MARGINAL INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPE VALUES OF 50-100 J/KG.
> HOWEVER...GIVEN THE STRONG SFC-LAYER CONFLUENCE ALONG THE FRONT...A
> LINE OF LOW-TOPPED CONVECTION WILL TRACK EWD/ENEWD ACROSS CNTRL
> IND...REACHING THE INDIANAPOLIS AREA BETWEEN 1830Z AND 1930Z.
> DOWNWARD MOMENTUM TRANSPORT IN THE STRONGEST CONVECTION MAY SUPPORT
> AN ISOLATED SVR WIND GUST OR TWO GIVEN 50 KT OF 1-KM-AGL SLY FLOW
> PER INDIANAPOLIS VWP DATA. THESE DATA ALSO INDICATE 35-40 KT OF
> 0-1-KM BULK SHEAR WITH MODEST DIRECTIONAL SHEAR IN THE LOW
> LEVELS...AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF A TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
> REGARDLESS...LIMITED BUOYANCY WILL PRECLUDE THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
> MORE SUBSTANTIAL SVR THREAT OWING TO COLDER MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES
> BEING REMOVED WELL TO THE W OF THE REGION.
>
> ..COHEN/CORFIDI.. 12/20/2012
>
> ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
>
> ATTN...WFO...IWX...IND...
>
> LAT...LON 38868660 39198684 39788693 40458704 40758684 40798630
> 40638572 40248543 39378552 39068588 38918609 38868660
>
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