[spotters-illianaskywarn] Fwd: NOAA's National Weather Service SPC Mesoscale Discussion Update
- From: Keith Reedy <keithreedy@xxxxxxxxxxxx>
- To: "spotters-illianaskywarn@xxxxxxxxxxxxx" <spotters-illianaskywarn@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
- Date: Thu, 16 Aug 2012 14:05:59 -0400
Keith Reedy
keithreedy@xxxxxxxxxxxx
Begin forwarded message:
> From: National Weather Service <nws.noaa@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> Subject: NOAA's National Weather Service SPC Mesoscale Discussion Update
> Date: August 16, 2012 1:58:25 PM EDT
> To: keithreedy@xxxxxxxxxxxx
> Reply-To: National Weather Service <nws.noaa@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
>
> You are subscribed to SPC Mesoscale Discussion for NOAA's National Weather
> Service.
>
>
> SPC MD 1773
> 08/16/2012 01:48 PM EDT
>
> MD 1773 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR E CNTRL MO...PARTS
> OF CNTRL/SRN IL AND IND
>
>
> MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1773
> NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
> 1247 PM CDT THU AUG 16 2012
>
> AREAS AFFECTED...E CNTRL MO...PARTS OF CNTRL/SRN IL AND IND
>
> CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
>
> VALID 161747Z - 161915Z
>
> PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT
>
> SUMMARY...SEVERE WIND POTENTIAL THROUGH 20-21Z APPEARS LOW...BUT THE
> NEED FOR A WW MAY NOT BE OUT OF THE QUESTION LATER THIS AFTERNOON OR
> EVENING.
>
> DISCUSSION...VIGOROUS NEW CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS CENTRAL
> ILLINOIS APPEARS MOSTLY IN RESPONSE TO LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC WARM
> ADVECTION CORRESPONDING TO STRONG 2-HOUR SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS...
> IN THE WAKE OF THE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM WEAKENING ACROSS MICHIGAN AND
> INDIANA. STILL AHEAD OF THE FRONT...LINGERING LOW-LEVEL
> MOISTURE...RELATIVELY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...AND STRONG
> VERTICAL SHEAR BENEATH 40-50 KT WESTERLY 500 MB FLOW...SUPPORT
> POTENTIAL FOR HAIL IN STRONGER CELLS. HOWEVER...WESTERLY DEEP LAYER
> MEAN FLOW LIKELY WILL REMAIN PROMINENT IN TENDING TO ADVECT ACTIVITY
> ACROSS THE EXPANDING RESIDUAL DOWNSTREAM SURFACE COLD POOL. THIS IS
> EXPECTED TO LIMIT DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL...PARTICULARLY IN THE
> PRESENCE OF RATHER MODEST...AND WEAKENING...AMBIENT LOW-LEVEL /850
> MB/ WIND FIELDS.
>
> ADDITIONAL SCATTERED STRONG BOUNDARY LAYER BASED STORM DEVELOPMENT
> MAY NOT BE OUT OF THE QUESTION LATER THIS AFTERNOON IN CLOSER
> PROXIMITY TO THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN INDIANA
> AND ILLINOIS...INTO THE VICINITY OF ITS INTERSECTION WITH THE COLD
> FRONT ADVANCING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS PARTS OF WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS
> AND EAST CENTRAL MISSOURI. GENERALLY SOUTH OF STRONGER
> WESTERLIES...AND MID-LEVEL FORCING FOR ASCENT SPREADING ACROSS THE
> GREAT LAKES REGION...SUPPORT FOR UPSCALE GROWTH WITH ORGANIZED
> SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL IS MORE UNCERTAIN. BUT...BOUNDARY LAYER
> CAPE WILL BE SIZABLE...AND IT MAY NOT BE OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT
> THE BOUNDARY INTERSECTION COULD PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR ANOTHER
> EXPANDING STORM CLUSTER.
>
> ..KERR/CARBIN.. 08/16/2012
>
> ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
>
> ATTN...WFO...LMK...IND...PAH...LOT...ILX...LSX...
>
> LAT...LON 39059163 40268963 40548750 40238550 39818531 38738565
> 37978765 38009043 38299108 39059163
>
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