[spotters-illianaskywarn] Fwd: NOAA's National Weather Service SPC Mesoscale Discussion Update
- From: Keith Reedy <keithreedy@xxxxxxxxxxxx>
- To: spotters-illianaskywarn@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
- Date: Thu, 21 Jun 2012 15:43:47 -0400
Keith Reedy
keithreedy@xxxxxxxxxxxx
Begin forwarded message:
> From: National Weather Service <nws.noaa@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> Subject: NOAA's National Weather Service SPC Mesoscale Discussion Update
> Date: June 21, 2012 3:41:48 PM EDT
> To: keithreedy@xxxxxxxxxxxx
> Reply-To: National Weather Service <nws.noaa@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
>
> You are subscribed to SPC Mesoscale Discussion for NOAA's National Weather
> Service.
>
>
> SPC MD 1237
> 06/21/2012 03:32 PM EDT
>
> MD 1237 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR SE MI...NE/CNTRL
> IND...FAR NW OH
>
>
> MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1237
> NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
> 0231 PM CDT THU JUN 21 2012
>
> AREAS AFFECTED...SE MI...NE/CNTRL IND...FAR NW OH
>
> CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
>
> VALID 211931Z - 212030Z
>
> PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT
>
> SUMMARY...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS
> AFTERNOON ACROSS PORTIONS OF SE MI...NE/CNTRL IND AND FAR NW OH. A
> FEW OF THESE STORMS MAY BE BRIEFLY SEVERE WITH THE PRIMARY THREATS
> OF STRONG WINDS AND HAIL. ISOLATED/BRIEF NATURE OF THE SEVERE THREAT
> IS EXPECTED TO PRECLUDE THE NEED FOR A WW.
>
> DISCUSSION...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ALONG A
> FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING EWD ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES/WRN OHIO
> VALLEY. 18Z SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTED THE FRONT ALONG A LINE FROM
> BAX SWWD TO LAF. THE ENVIRONMENT AHEAD OF THE FRONT IS CHARACTERIZED
> BY TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S AND DEWPOINTS AROUND 60.
> THIS WARM...MODERATELY MOIST ENVIRONMENT WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE
> MLCAPE VALUES NEAR 500-1000 J/KG. THIS MODEST INSTABILITY COMBINED
> WITH EFFECTIVE SHEAR VALUES AROUND 20 TO 30 KTS WILL SUPPORT BRIEF
> STORM ORGANIZATION AND A FEW STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SEVERE
> WIND/HAIL. ONE FACTOR WORKING AGAINST SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT IS
> THE WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT /AROUND 8 DEG C AT 700 MB BASED ON THE
> LATEST MESOANALYSIS/ WHICH ARE EXPECTED TO KEEP CAPE PROFILES THIN
> AND LIMIT THE OVERALL COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS. ISOLATED/BRIEF
> NATURE OF THE SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO PRECLUDE THE NEED FOR A
> WW.
>
> ..MOSIER/HART.. 06/21/2012
>
> ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
>
> ATTN...WFO...CLE...ILN...DTX...IWX...GRR...IND...ILX...
>
> LAT...LON 41958517 42208494 42888425 42958355 42508303 41518372
> 40438483 39348630 39468786 40428663 41958517
>
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