[spotters-illianaskywarn] Fwd: NOAA's National Weather Service SPC Mesoscale Discussion Update
- From: Keith Reedy <keithreedy@xxxxxxxxxxxx>
- To: spotters-illianaskywarn@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
- Date: Tue, 1 May 2012 17:00:54 -0400
Keith Reedy
keithreedy@xxxxxxxxxxxx
Begin forwarded message:
> From: National Weather Service <nws.noaa@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> Subject: NOAA's National Weather Service SPC Mesoscale Discussion Update
> Date: May 1, 2012 4:46:35 PM EDT
> To: keithreedy@xxxxxxxxxxxx
> Reply-To: National Weather Service <nws.noaa@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
>
> You are subscribed to SPC Mesoscale Discussion for NOAA's National Weather
> Service.
>
>
> SPC MD 647
> 05/01/2012 04:39 PM EDT
>
> MD 0647 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR EAST-CENTRAL IL TO
> WESTERN INDIANA
>
>
> MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0647
> NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
> 0339 PM CDT TUE MAY 01 2012
>
> AREAS AFFECTED...EAST-CENTRAL IL TO WESTERN INDIANA
>
> CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
>
> VALID 012039Z - 012245Z
>
> PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT
>
> SUMMARY...MONITORING FOR INCREASING SIGNS OF SURFACE BASED DEEP
> CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL IL INTO WESTERN
> INDIANA...WHICH DOES REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. SHOULD
> TSTMS OCCUR/INCREASE...AT LEAST AN ISOLATED TORNADO/SEVERE HAIL RISK
> WOULD EXIST.
>
> DISCUSSION...RECENT VISIBLE SATELLITE TRENDS REFLECT A THICKENING CU
> FIELD ACROSS PORTIONS OF EAST-CENTRAL/SOUTH-CENTRAL IL...ESPECIALLY
> WITH A GENERAL CORRIDOR AROUND THE DECATUR/TAYLORVILLE AREAS AS OF
> 2030Z. THIS AREA IS IN VICINITY OF A WEST-EAST WARM/STATIONARY FRONT
> ACROSS THE REGION...AND IS ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL
> IMPULSE/MCV ACROSS NORTHERN IL. A KEY UNCERTAINTY EXISTS REGARDING
> THE LIKELIHOOD/EXTENT OF DEEP CONVECTION WEST OF TORNADO WATCH
> 218....GIVEN THAT THE REGION WILL BEGIN TO INCREASINGLY COME UNDER
> THE INFLUENCE OF SHORTWAVE RIDGING/WEAKENING MASS CONVERGENCE AS THE
> AFOREMENTIONED MID-LEVEL IMPULSE CONTINUES TO SHIFT
> EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AWAY FROM THE AREA. THAT SAID...A MOIST AND
> MODERATELY UNSTABLE/WEAKLY CAPPED AIRMASS DOES REMAIN ACROSS THE
> REGION...WITH VERTICAL SHEAR/SRH ACCENTUATED NEAR THE WARM FRONT.
> INCREASING SIGNS/CONFIDENCE OF DEEP CONVECTIVE INITIATION COULD
> PROMPT A WATCH ISSUANCE ACROSS IL AND/OR EXPANSION OF WW 218 ACROSS
> INDIANA. CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR A
> TORNADO/HAIL THREAT THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.
>
> ..GUYER/MEAD.. 05/01/2012
>
> ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
>
> ATTN...WFO...IND...LOT...ILX...LSX...
>
> LAT...LON 39228897 40278868 40668715 39448695 38968817 39228897
>
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