[spotters-illianaskywarn] Fwd: NOAA's National Weather Service SPC Mesoscale Discussion Update
- From: Keith Reedy <keithreedy@xxxxxxxxxxxx>
- To: spotters-illianaskywarn@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
- Date: Mon, 14 Nov 2011 13:12:44 -0500
Keith Reedy
keithreedy@xxxxxxxxxxxx
Begin forwarded message:
> From: National Weather Service <nws.noaa@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> Subject: NOAA's National Weather Service SPC Mesoscale Discussion Update
> Date: November 14, 2011 12:36:31 PM EST
> To: keithreedy@xxxxxxxxxxxx
> Reply-To: National Weather Service <nws.noaa@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
>
> You are subscribed to SPC Mesoscale Discussion for NOAA's National Weather
> Service.
>
>
> SPC MD 2313
> 11/14/2011 12:25 PM EST
>
> MD 2313 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY FOR E CNTRL IL
> INTO CNTRL INDIANA
>
>
> MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2313
> NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
> 1124 AM CST MON NOV 14 2011
>
> AREAS AFFECTED...E CNTRL IL INTO CNTRL INDIANA
>
> CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY
>
> VALID 141724Z - 141900Z
>
> STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INITIATE IN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS AND A TORNADO
> WATCH WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED BY 18Z.
>
> SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A LOW CENTERED OVER CNTRL IL...WITH A WARM
> FRONT EXTENDING EWD ACROSS NRN INDIANA AND INTO NWRN OH. PRESSURE
> FALLS HAVE ACCELERATED ALONG THE N OF THE WARM FRONT...WHICH IS
> GRADUALLY SHIFTING NWD WITH LOW 60S DEWPOINTS NOW EXTENDING N OF
> IND.
>
> VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS BOUNDARY LAYER CU FIELDS NOW
> INCREASING NEAR THE LOW CENTER/WARM FRONT INTERSECTION...AND ALSO
> BEGINNING TO DEVELOP A BIT SWWD ALONG THE DEVELOPING COLD FRONT.
> OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT MOST OF THE CIN HAS ERODED AS
> WELL. WITH CONTINUED FORCING AND POCKETS OF HEATING...STORMS SHOULD
> INITIATE SOON OVER CNTRL AND E CNTRL IL...MOVING QUICKLY EWD CROSS
> INDIANA AND INTO WRN OH LATER TODAY.
>
> DEEP LAYER WIND FIELDS ARE VERY STRONG...AND EFFECTIVE SRH VALUES
> ARE WELL IN EXCESS OF 300 M2/S2. WHILE SOME UPDRAFTS MAY STRUGGLE TO
> REMAIN UPRIGHT INITIALLY...WITH TIME THEY ARE EXPECTED TO FORM INTO
> MATURE SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF TORNADOES AND DAMAGING WIND. A STORM OR
> TWO MAY RIDE RIGHT ALONG THE WARM FRONT...WITH A CORRIDOR OF
> PARTICULARLY DAMAGING WINDS AND/OR TORNADOES POSSIBLE THERE.
>
> ..JEWELL.. 11/14/2011
>
> ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
>
> ATTN...WFO...CLE...ILN...IWX...IND...PAH...LOT...ILX...LSX...
>
> LAT...LON 38898904 39828912 40998837 41238687 41598438 41518376
> 40938348 40008399 39538461 39048568 38838631 38698734
> 38578833 38898904
>
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