[spotters-illianaskywarn] Fwd: NOAA's National Weather Service SPC Mesoscale Discussion Update
- From: Keith Reedy <keithreedy@xxxxxxxxxxxx>
- To: spotters-illianaskywarn@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
- Date: Fri, 22 Jul 2011 13:05:57 -0400
Keith Reedy
keithreedy@xxxxxxxxxxxx
Begin forwarded message:
> From: National Weather Service <nws.noaa@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> Subject: NOAA's National Weather Service SPC Mesoscale Discussion Update
> Date: July 22, 2011 11:29:32 AM EDT
> To: keithreedy@xxxxxxxxxxxx
> Reply-To: National Weather Service <nws.noaa@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
>
> You are subscribed to SPC Mesoscale Discussion for NOAA's National Weather
> Service.
>
>
> SPC MD 1685
> 07/22/2011 11:21 AM EDT
>
> MD 1685 CONCERNING OUTLOOK UPGRADE FOR SRN LOWER MICHIGAN...NRN/CENTRAL
> INDIANA AND NWRN OHIO.
>
>
> MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1685
> NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
> 1020 AM CDT FRI JUL 22 2011
>
> AREAS AFFECTED...SRN LOWER MICHIGAN...NRN/CENTRAL INDIANA AND NWRN
> OHIO.
>
> CONCERNING...OUTLOOK UPGRADE
>
> VALID 221520Z - 221615Z
>
> ...PORTIONS OF SRN LOWER MICHIGAN...NRN/CENTRAL INDIANA AND NWRN
> OHIO WILL BE UPGRADED TO A SLIGHT RISK ON THE 1630Z DAY 1 OUTLOOK.
>
> AT 1510Z...A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS...WITH GUSTS MAINLY IN THE 35 TO
> 55 MPH RANGE...WAS MOVING EAST AT 35 KT THROUGH NERN IL... INCLUDING
> THE CHICAGO METRO AREA. THE ACCOMPANYING COLD POOL COMBINED WITH THE
> WARMING AND DESTABILIZING BOUNDARY LAYER MAY SUSTAIN STORMS
> EWD...THOUGH MOST STORM SCALE MODELS SUGGEST STORMS WILL WEAKEN BY
> 17Z. IF THESE STORMS DO NOT DISSIPATE...THE INCREASING INSTABILITY
> AND 25-30 KT SHEAR WOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR AT LEAST AN ISOLATED
> DAMAGING WIND THREAT THIS AFTERNOON.
>
> ALSO...STORM SCALE MODELS INDICATE STORMS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP
> ACROSS PORTIONS OF INDIANA AND OHIO...ALONG AND AHEAD OF AN OUTFLOW
> BOUNDARY THAT IS MOVING EWD THROUGH EAST CENTRAL ILLINOIS. THIS AREA
> IS UNDER THE NRN INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER RIDGE WITH WEAK FLOW ALOFT
> AND POOR LAPSE RATES. HOWEVER...STRONG WARMING OF VERY MOIST
> BOUNDARY LAYER...DEWPOINTS IN THE MID/UPPER 70S AND MLCAPES AROUND
> 4000 J/KG...MAY SUPPORT PULSE STORMS WITH A FEW WET MICROBURSTS.
>
> ..IMY.. 07/22/2011
>
> ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
>
> ATTN...WFO...RLX...CLE...ILN...DTX...IWX...GRR...IND...LOT...
>
> LAT...LON 41158589 42278475 42208308 41298223 39898245 39448440
> 39518609 39758719 40288722 40758700 41158589
>
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