[spotters-illianaskywarn] Fwd: NOAA's National Weather Service SPC Mesoscale Discussion Update
- From: Keith Reedy <keithreedy@xxxxxxxxxxxx>
- To: spotters-illianaskywarn@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
- Date: Tue, 12 Jul 2011 14:08:21 -0400
Keith Reedy
keithreedy@xxxxxxxxxxxx
Begin forwarded message:
> From: National Weather Service <nws.noaa@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> Date: July 12, 2011 2:05:23 PM EDT
> To: keithreedy@xxxxxxxxxxxx
> Subject: NOAA's National Weather Service SPC Mesoscale Discussion Update
> Reply-To: National Weather Service <nws.noaa@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
>
> You are subscribed to SPC Mesoscale Discussion for NOAA's National Weather
> Service.
>
>
> SPC MD 1591
> 07/12/2011 02:01 PM EDT
>
> MD 1591 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY FOR NORTHEAST MO/FAR
> SOUTHEAST IA TO CENTRAL/SOUTHERN IL AND SOUTHWEST INDIANA/FAR WESTERN KY
>
>
> MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1591
> NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
> 0100 PM CDT TUE JUL 12 2011
>
> AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHEAST MO/FAR SOUTHEAST IA TO CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
> IL AND SOUTHWEST INDIANA/FAR WESTERN KY
>
> CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY
>
> VALID 121800Z - 122000Z
>
> POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL AND ESPECIALLY DAMAGING WINDS ARE EXPECTED
> TO INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON FROM SOUTHEAST IA/NORTHERN MO INTO
> CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PORTIONS IL AND EVENTUALLY INDIANA/WESTERN KY. IT
> DOES APPEAR LIKELY THAT A SEVERE TSTM WATCH WILL BE NEEDED FOR
> PORTIONS OF THE REGION BY MID AFTERNOON.
>
> A CONVECTIVELY-AIDED/INDUCED IMPULSE IS EVIDENT IN SATELLITE IMAGERY
> OVER IA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH SEVERAL SCATTERED POCKETS OF
> TSTMS ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST IA AND NORTHEAST MO...WHICH ARE FOCUSED
> NEAR/NORTH OF A SOUTHWARD SHIFTING WEST-EAST ORIENTED FRONTAL
> BOUNDARY/INSTABILITY GRADIENT. LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
> AFOREMENTIONED MID-LEVEL IMPULSE IS EXPECTED TO SUPPORT INCREASING
> SURFACE BASED DEEP CONVECTION THROUGH MID/LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS
> PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST/EAST-CENTRAL MO INTO MUCH OF DOWNSTATE IL.
> SUCH A SCENARIO IS WELL SUPPORTED BY GUIDANCE SUCH AS THE 12Z
> WRF-NMM AND LATEST EXPERIMENTAL HRRR. WITHIN THE AFOREMENTIONED
> CORRIDOR...RELATIVELY CLOUD-FREE SKIES ARE CONTRIBUTING TO
> AGGRESSIVE DESTABILIZATION/CINH EROSION WITHIN A VERY MOIST AIRMASS
> WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 60S TO MIDDLE 70S F.
> THIS IS RESULTING IN MLCAPE ON THE ORDER OF 2000-4000 J/KG...HIGHEST
> ACROSS NORTHEAST MO EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD INTO DOWNSTATE PORTIONS OF
> IL/INDIANA. MODEST/NEARLY UNIDIRECTIONAL WESTERLY FLOW COUPLED WITH
> THE AFOREMENTIONED DEGREE OF INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT THE
> DEVELOPMENT/ORGANIZATION OF MULTICELLULAR CLUSTERS/SOME SUPERCELLS
> CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS/LARGE HAIL.
>
> ..GUYER.. 07/12/2011
>
> ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
>
> ATTN...WFO...IND...PAH...ILX...LSX...DVN...EAX...
>
> LAT...LON 39879307 40939124 40528924 39648750 38198732 37498853
> 38069068 39879307
>
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