[spotters-illianaskywarn] Fwd: NOAA's National Weather Service SPC Mesoscale Discussion Update
- From: Keith Reedy <keithreedy@xxxxxxxxxxxx>
- To: "spotters-illianaskywarn@xxxxxxxxxxxxx" <spotters-illianaskywarn@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
- Date: Sun, 9 Jun 2013 15:20:18 -0400
Keith Reedy
keithreedy@xxxxxxxxxxxx
Begin forwarded message:
> From: GovDelivery Weather Updates <weatherupdates@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> Subject: NOAA's National Weather Service SPC Mesoscale Discussion Update
> Date: June 9, 2013 2:39:22 PM EDT
> To: keithreedy@xxxxxxxxxxxx
> Reply-To: weatherupdates@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
>
>
>
> You are subscribed to SPC Mesoscale Discussion for NOAA's National Weather
> Service.
> GovDelivery provides this service using unaltered NOAA/NWS products.
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>
> SPC MD 1006
> 06/09/2013 02:29 PM EDT
>
> MD 1006 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR NERN AR/FAR NWRN
> MS...WRN TN...SERN-EAST CENTRAL MO...FAR WRN KY...AND SRN/CENTRAL IL
>
>
> MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1006
> NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
> 0128 PM CDT SUN JUN 09 2013
>
> AREAS AFFECTED...NERN AR/FAR NWRN MS...WRN TN...SERN-EAST CENTRAL
> MO...FAR WRN KY...AND SRN/CENTRAL IL
>
> CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
>
> VALID 091828Z - 091930Z
>
> PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT
>
> SUMMARY...ADDITIONAL TSTM DEVELOPMENT IS LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON FROM
> NERN AR/FAR NWRN MS NWD INTO ERN MO/SRN-CENTRAL IL WITH THREAT FOR
> DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL. WW ISSUANCE IS BEING CONSIDERED FOR THIS
> REGION.
>
> DISCUSSION...EARLY AFTERNOON OBSERVATIONAL DATA AND SURFACE ANALYSES
> INDICATED A RELATIVELY NARROW DESTABILIZING WARM SECTOR EXTENDING
> FROM THE LOWER TO MIDDLE MS VALLEY WITH MLCAPE OF 1500-2000 J/G IN
> ERN AR TO MS. ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY IS WEAKER WITH NWD EXTENT AT
> THIS TIME INTO IL...ADDITIONAL SURFACE HEATING AND LOW LEVEL
> MOISTENING SHOULD ALLOW THE AIR MASS HERE TO ALSO BECOME MODERATELY
> UNSTABLE. SURFACE TEMPERATURES TO AROUND 80 F IN CENTRAL IL HAVE
> ERODED THE INHIBITION...SUGGESTING STORMS NOW LOCATED FROM INVOF STL
> TO SERN MO WILL LIKELY PERSIST AS THEY ADVANCE INTO CENTRAL/SRN IL.
>
> WSR-88D VWP DATA ACROSS THE LOWER OH VALLEY /IL...IND AND WRN KY/
> INDICATED STRENGTHENING SSWLY MIDLEVEL WINDS OF 40-50+ KT
> CONTRIBUTING TO AN INCREASE IN BULK SHEAR TO SUPPORT STORM
> ORGANIZATION. FURTHER EXPECTED DESTABILIZATION ALONG AND E OF THE
> ONGOING STORMS /WHICH EXTENDED SWD FROM WEST CENTRAL IL TO CENTRAL
> AR/ AND EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR AROUND 40 KT WILL SUPPORT A THREAT FOR
> SEVERE STORMS.
>
> ..PETERS/CORFIDI.. 06/09/2013
>
> ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
>
> ATTN...WFO...PAH...ILX...MEG...LSX...LZK...SGF...
>
> LAT...LON 38969103 40169006 40178942 39578832 38458804 36628824
> 34618922 34219111 34789197 35689185 36649169 38969103
>
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