[ SHOWGSD-L ] weather during the Nationals: "normal" and the current outlook
- From: "L. Hartten" <hartten@xxxxxxxxxxxx>
- To: thelist <showgsd-l@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
- Date: Wed, 03 Oct 2007 09:58:38 -0600
Hi Folks,
A disclaimer up front: I have 3 degrees in meteorology, but I'm in
research for a reason -- I'm not a good forecaster! I know where to get
the data and I know something about how to interpret it, but this isn't
a forecast and it's not an official statement from my employers. Also,
"what to pack" is a very individual thing, so you're all on your own!
History first, from NOAA's Central Region Headquarters web site
(www.crh.noaa.gov) and links to NOAA's National Climatic Data Center
(ncdc.noaa.gov):
Daily Normal Max & Min Temperature, Heating Degree Days, Cooling Degree
Days, and Precip for Loveland, Colorado
(LOVELAND 2N, #055236, Lat=40°24', Lon=105°07'W, Elev=5040ft, 1971-2000
averages)
October
DATE MAX MIN AVG HDD CDD PRCP
10 68 38 53 12 0 0.03
11 67 37 52 13 0 0.03
12 67 37 52 13 0 0.03
13 67 37 52 13 0 0.03
14 66 36 51 14 0 0.03
15 66 36 51 14 0 0.03
16 65 35 50 15 0 0.03
17 65 35 50 15 0 0.03
18 64 35 49 16 0 0.03
19 64 34 49 16 0 0.03
20 63 34 49 16 0 0.03
21 63 33 48 17 0 0.03
22 62 33 48 17 0 0.03
Probabilities of first Fall frost & freeze for Ft. Collins, based on
1971-2000 observations
*Probability Level*
*Temp*
*10%
* *50%
* *90%
*
36°F Sep 15 Sep 24 Oct 4
32°F Sep 18 Oct 2 Oct 17
28°F Sep 24 Oct 10 Oct 26
Loveland's average maximum temperatures in mid-Oct are in the
mid-60's, average lows in the mid-30's. There's a 50% chance of having
a low temperature of 28°F in Ft. Collins by Oct 10, a 90% chance by Oct
26. This year, the CSU Foothills Campus station (at 5120ft) got down to
36.2°F on 9/11, 34 & 35°F on 9/25 & 26, and 31.6°F on 10/1.
The Front Range has about 15% less atmosphere above it than locations
at sea level, and that atmosphere is usually pretty dry (condensation
rarely forms on a container pulled out of a refrigerator). When the sun
is out, it feels quite warm especially if you're in dark clothes (or
fur!). When the sun is up, even if the clouds are out, it's easy to get
a sunburn because there's less atmosphere filtering the rays. When the
sun goes down, it gets cold fast.
Now the outlook, also from www.crh.noaa.gov and its links to products
at NOAA's Climate Prediction Center:
The 8-14 day outlook, valid Oct 10-16, is for a 50% chance of
temperatures being above normal in the northeastern quarter of Colorado,
and a 40-50% chance of below normal precipitation. Those who'd like to
see the maps themselves can go to
http://www.crh.noaa.gov/climate/main.php?type=outlook&page=temp_pcpn.php
and click on the thumbnails.
Cheers,
Leslie
--
Leslie M. Hartten web: http://spot.colorado.edu/~hartten
Indi (TerraNorte's Midnight Indigo, German Shepherd Dog) & Brittany
(Upland Sweet Baker, English Setter)
--
Disclaimer: The contents of this message are mine personally and do not
necessarily reflect any position of the Government of the United States
of America, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, or the
University of Colorado.
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