[ SHOWGSD-L ] Re: National Weather
- From: "L. Hartten" <hartten@xxxxxxxxxxxx>
- To: Showgsd-L <showgsd-l@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
- Date: Tue, 03 Oct 2006 15:27:25 -0600
Dear GSD folk,
Hey, I get to answer an email from the list and call it legitimate work!
National Weather Service forecasts can be found fairly easily since
the creation of a simple address, www.weather.gov. Go there, type in
your city & state (top item, left hand navigation bar), and press "go".
For an actual forecast, people are just going to have to be patient --
it's 12 days from now till the start of Nationals and 18 till the end,
but 2 weeks is out at the limits of predictability. (Anyone who wants
to get into a technical discussion of the theoretical limits of
predictability of weather, I can point you towards some references!)
If you want a rough idea, you can go to weather.gov and click on
"Climate-Predictions" lower down on the navigation bar, then pick one of
the Monthly (30-day) Outlooks. I found a product that's a 30 Sep
outlook for Oct: 33-40% probability temperatures will be above normal,
equal chances of above/normal/below precipitation.
What's "normal"? Good question, and not as easily found as it should
be. (I could cheat and use my weather almanacs, but I won't.) NOAA's
Climate Page (http://www.noaa.gov/climate.html) has a "Climate Data"
link that leads to some tables of text showing the following 30-yr mean
values for Oct in St. Louis: maximum temp=68.3, min temperature=48.2,
monthly precipitation 2.76". A better bet might be the link to the
Regional Climate Centers. The Midwestern Regional Climate Center has
some of its own info, plus a link to the Missouri State Climatologist at
http://www.missouri.edu/%7Emoclimat/. There you can find 1971-2000
averages:
City:ST LOUIS SCIENCE CTR
State:MO
Lat:38.38N
Long:090.16W
Elev: 540
ID:237452
Normal Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov
Dec Annual
Minimum 21.2 26.1 36.5 46.9 56.8 66.1 70.9 68.6 60.7 49.4 37.5
26.9 47.3
Maximum 37.8 44.5 54.9 66.3 76.8 85.7 90.5 88.0 80.7 69.4 54.4
42.2 65.9
Mean 29.5 35.3 45.7 56.6 66.8 75.9 80.7 78.3 70.7 59.4 46.0
34.6 56.6
Precip. 2.01 2.06 3.70 3.82 3.92 3.73 3.78 3.70 2.69 2.81 4.06
2.56 38.84
HDD 1100 832 598 272 87 3 0 1 27 214 572
944 4650
CDD 0 0 1 21 144 330 486 413 198 39 1
0 1633
City:ST LOUIS INTL AP
State:MO
Lat:38.45N
Long:090.22W
Elev: 568
ID:237455
Normal Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov
Dec Annual
Minimum 21.2 26.5 36.2 46.5 56.6 65.9 70.6 68.6 60.3 48.2 36.7
25.8 46.9
Maximum 37.9 44.3 55.4 66.7 76.5 85.3 89.8 87.9 80.1 68.3 53.8
42.0 65.7
Mean 29.6 35.4 45.8 56.6 66.5 75.6 80.2 78.2 70.2 58.3 45.3
33.9 56.3
Precip. 2.14 2.28 3.60 3.69 4.11 3.76 3.90 2.98 2.96 2.76 3.71
2.86 38.75
HDD 1097 845 613 294 83 6 0 1 46 246 583
943 4757
CDD 0 0 7 32 114 316 461 396 196 36 3
0 1561
You can also find records for Warrenton, which is about as far west of
Lake St. Louis as St. Louis proper is to the east:
City:WARRENTON 1 N
State:MO
Lat:38.49N
Long:091.08W
Elev: 850
ID:238725
Normal Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov
Dec Annual
Minimum 19.7 23.2 33.2 44.2 52.6 62.7 67.3 64.9 56.3 45.6 34.8
23.8 44.0
Maximum 37.0 42.5 54.0 65.3 74.4 83.0 88.2 86.8 79.2 68.2 53.7
41.2 64.5
Mean 28.4 32.9 43.6 54.8 63.5 72.9 77.8 75.9 67.8 56.9 44.3
32.5 54.3
Precip. 1.74 1.99 3.22 3.75 4.42 3.86 3.78 2.70 2.81 2.73 3.68
2.41 37.09
HDD 1137 900 663 321 129 12 0 11 60 279 625
1008 5145
CDD 0 0 0 14 82 248 395 347 143 29 1
0 1259
Very similar.
OK, I'm going to go write an email to the Climate Prediction Center
suggesting they make it easier to find out "normal". Always good to
have someone give your web pages a run around the block! Save these
notes, there'll be a test next October when you'll have to find info for
Ft. Collins, CO :)
Cheers,
Leslie
--
Leslie M. Hartten web: http://spot.colorado.edu/~hartten
CIRES, Univ. of Colorado email: hartten@xxxxxxxxxxxx
--
Brittany, "Upland Sweet Baker" (blue belton English Setter bitch, 7/95)
Indi, "TerraNorte's Midnight Indigo" (black & tan German Shepherd bitch,
12/04)
at the Bridge: Sebago, "Starray's Granite Lake" (GSD, 6/96-10/05)
--
Disclaimer: The contents of this message are mine personally and do not
necessarily reflect any position of the Government of the United States
of America, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, or the
University of Colorado.
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