Fw: +[SurvPC] MS-Windows Vista No Longer Matters (fwd)
- From: "tribble" <lauraeaves@xxxxxxxxx>
- To: <blind-windows@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>, <program-l@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>, "bprogramming" <programmingblind@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>, "Science, Technology, Mathematics, SCI-FI, and more." <sci-tech@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
- Date: Tue, 28 Oct 2008 13:40:53 -0500
Hey all -- What is your take on the following?
--le
----- Original Message -----
---------- Forwarded message ----------
Date: Tue, 28 Oct 2008 07:01:21 -0800
From: John Oram <norami@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Reply-To: LifeRaft <survpc@xxxxxxxxxxx>
To: LifeRaft <survpc@xxxxxxxxxxx>
Subject: +[SurvPC] MS-Windows Vista No Longer Matters
http://www.microsoft-watch.com/content/vista/windows_vista_no_longer_matters.html
October 26, 2008 7:15 PM
Windows Vista No Longer Matters
News Commentary. Did it ever?
Make no mistake: Microsoft has moved beyond Windows Vista, which will become
all too apparent during this week's Professional Developer Conference.
Windows
7 is the future, and in many ways it's the present, too.
Contrary to ridiculous assertions recently made by Microsoft CEO Steve
Ballmer,
Windows Vista is a flop. If businesses aren't buying Vista, after waiting
six
(now seven) years, it's no success. Yet, during the last day of the Gartner
2008 expo 10 days ago, Steve asserted that Vista "has been extremely
successful."
A few days earlier, Steve boasted: "Vista is our best-selling product ever.
So,
if that takes too much getting over—we're not going to have products that
are
much more successful than Vista has been. We sold over 180 million copies in
the first 18 months, quite successful." Really?
But who's buying this "best-selling" product ever? "We have 180 million
users,
mostly on the consumer market," Steve said in an Oct. 2 speech. Oh?
According
to Gartner analysts Neil MacDonald and David Smith, only about 10 percent of
enterprises have adopted Windows Vista. That's not a high number,
particularly
in context of the approximately six years between Windows XP and Vista.
It's not surprising then that PDC attendees will hear whole lots about
Windows
7 this week and very little about its predecessor. Windows 7 banners are
plentiful enough, as are the sessions: Out of 194, 22 are dedicated to Seven
and none to Windows Vista. It has leprosy, baby, and nobody wants to catch
it.
I Googled "PDC 2008," and one of the pages—not now available—is "Unveiling
Windows 7 to the World."
Vista is headed to as quick a death as Microsoft can give it. Someday soon,
some gun-toting Microsoft executive will lead Vista out back and "Pop!"
Netbook
buying trends and the sagging economy give Microsoft more reasons to want to
off Vista as soon as humanly possible. The signs are everywhere:
The vanishing license count. Every quarterly earnings since Vista's release,
Microsoft executives counted up the number of licenses shipped. There was
near
silence during last week's 2009 fiscal first-quarter earnings announcement.
The
number was 180 million three months earlier. It's now "What?" Microsoft's
failure to toot "the number of Vista licenses" horn means something. Maybe
the
increase wasn't that great, or maybe Microsoft is moving beyond Vista. I say
yes to both.
Windows client income down. During the fiscal first quarter, the division's
revenue grew a paltry 2 percent year over year, but income decreased by 4
percent. Microsoft has no tough year-ago comparison to account for the weak
results. By comparison, Business division revenue and income were up 20
percent
and 23 percent, respectively. Microsoft attributed year-over-year Windows
client income declines to sales of lower-cost versions in emerging markets
and
on netbooks in mature markets. Considering that PC shipment growth was still
strong during the quarter, Windows results forebodes Vista weakness.
Increasing netbook sales. The product category is pure trouble for Microsoft
because Windows Vista demands too much to adequately run on the hardware. So
netbooks typically either ship with Linux or Windows XP Home. That netbook
buyers would be satisfied with 7-year-old consumer XP is just about the only
commentary necessary to understand Vista's market plight. According to
Microsoft, netbooks added 8 percent growth to otherwise flat U.S. PC sales
during the third calendar quarter. The category is hot, but Vista is not and
couldn't be. Seven had better run well on netbooks and soon.
"Windows. Life Without Walls." The marketing campaign should be called
"Windows. Life Without Vista." If Vista is so successful, as Steve claims,
then
why isn't Microsoft advertising the software? Rather, Microsoft is trying to
get away from Vista, abandoning a brand that it already invested tens of
millions of dollars promoting. Its absent role at PDC says it all.
There are plenty of other signs:
Continued OEM sales of XP downgrade licenses
The aforementioned 10 percent enterprise adoption
Apple's Mac market share gains (35 percent in U.S. retail revenue)
Microsoft is moving beyond Vista to Windows 7. Windows Vista no longer
matters.
If it did:
Enterprises would be buying it
Consumers would be demanding it
Microsoft wouldn't freak out about Apple's "Get a Mac" ads
The hottest new computer category, netbooks, would ship with Vista
Microsoft would be aggressively advertising Vista, instead of trying to bury
the brand
Developers would be creating hunky Vista apps; instead, projects like Yahoo
Messenger for Windows Vista are being abandoned
I've long said that Windows Vista isn't a bad operating system. It's just
not
particularly better than Windows XP. Strange, then, that Microsoft isn't
messaging Seven as being particularly better than Windows Vista. It won't
be.
Microsoft believes, with some justification, that Vista has major perception
problems. The company clearly has decided that negative perceptions can't be
fixed. Hence, the diminished emphasis on Vista; starting tomorrow—and
especially on Tuesday—an increased emphasis on Windows 7. By shifting
emphasis
to Seven, Microsoft is treating Vista perceptions mainly as a marketing
problem.
Vista deserved better market reception than it got. Strange, a few small
improvements could have changed everything—like startup times. Everybody
bitches about how long Vista takes to boot up or wake up from sleep. Last
week,
one of my longtime Windows buddies bought a MacBook. Yesterday we talked
about
startup times. He surprised me. He had already clocked startup times: 7
minutes
on his Vista notebook and about a minute for the $1,299 MacBook. That's not
scientific, but it needn't be. One user, one experience multiplied by 180
million Vista licenses is scientific enough.
[Please send your tips or rumors to watchtips at gmail.com].
Posted by Joe Wilcox on October 26, 2008 7:15 PM
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