As Cary says, the probabilities have been worked out. But people don't tend to internalize probabilities (at least accurately). They tend to think either "lucky" or "unlucky". I personally like probabilities, but I generally tell managers my experience. In the last 7 years, at least 4 systems I had some contact with (clients/employers/former employers/whatever) had 2 disks fail in close time proximity (within roughly 30 minutes). Calculating the implicit probabilites of these real-life occurrences is way over my head (some were small shops with 1-2 servers, some larger). But I can safely say that, in human terms, such an event is not "unbelievably unlikely". The likelihood of serious data loss from 2 failed drives is much lower with RAID 10 than with RAID 5. So you've got a performance benefit and a fault tolerance benefit with RAID 10. And I won't even detail the crippling effect I've seen when a RAID 5 disk failed and the system rebuilt it with the hot spare. --Terry ----- Original Message ----- From: "Cary Millsap" <cary.millsap@xxxxxxxxxx> To: <oracle-l@xxxxxxxxxxxxx> Sent: Tuesday, December 14, 2004 2:38 PM Subject: RE: Storage array advice anyone? The probabilities are already worked out, and they're publicly available = in the paper called "RAID: High-Performance, Reliable Secondary Storage" = (an ACM Surveys article) by Messrs. Chen, Lee, Gibson, Katz, and Patterson. Not many people bother to put them into Excel, but when I once played = with the numbers a bit, I realized pretty quickly that the probability of an outage-causing double-whammy is a lot worse than most people think. The article mentions that point specifically, if I remember correctly. The key idea is that the failures of two disks in an array are = frequently not independent events. Often, the event that just screwed up disk #1 = has a higher probability now of screwing up disk #2 before you can fix #1. Cary Millsap Hotsos Enterprises, Ltd. http://www.hotsos.com * Nullius in verba * Upcoming events: - Performance Diagnosis 101: 1/4 Calgary - SQL Optimization 101: 2/7 Dallas - Hotsos Symposium 2005: March 6-10 Dallas - Visit www.hotsos.com for schedule details... -----Original Message----- From: oracle-l-bounce@xxxxxxxxxxxxx = [mailto:oracle-l-bounce@xxxxxxxxxxxxx] On Behalf Of Jared Still Sent: Tuesday, December 14, 2004 3:58 PM To: chris@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx Cc: Stephen.Lee@xxxxxxxx; oracle-l@xxxxxxxxxxxxx Subject: Re: Storage array advice anyone? On Tue, 14 Dec 2004 10:47:20 +0000, chris@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx=20 > My experience is that with either RAID 5 or 10 you have to be = unbelievably > unlucky to lose data providing disks are replaced when they fail and = not left > for a few days or even more. You are talking extremely remote. It = might be an > idea to get someone to do the maths and work out the probabilities. I, for one, have been that unlucky on at least one occasion.=20 --=20 Jared Still Certifiable Oracle DBA and Part Time Perl Evangelist -- //www.freelists.org/webpage/oracle-l -- //www.freelists.org/webpage/oracle-l -- //www.freelists.org/webpage/oracle-l