[opendtv] =?utf-8?Q?Re:_[opendtv]_Re:_Netflix_Is_6%_of_TV_Business,_43%_of? =?utf-8?Q?_Ratings_Decline_—_Nathanson_|_Re/code?Date: Sat, 9 May 2015 11:36:31 -0400

  • From: Craig Birkmaier <craig@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
  • To: "opendtv@xxxxxxxxxxxxx" <opendtv@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>

On May 7, 2015, at 9:26 PM, Manfredi, Albert E <albert.e.manfredi@xxxxxxxxxx>
wrote:


That's out of date. With cord cutting the number could be different. And too,
for those who use OTA, some of them must also be watching the multicast
channels. So I don't think those numbers are current or complete.

Yes, it is out of date as I noted when I posted it. Things have only gotten
worse for the broadcast networks since, as noted in several articles I have
posted recently.

As for the multicast ratings, I'd love to see some. Clearly there is someone
watching, but the numbers are not readily available, as Neilsen does not
publish these numbers to my knowledge.


Well, a growth of 67% this past year, for video ad views of
broadcast show current season, means something?

Where did you get this stat?

I expect you to read the other stuff I posted.

http://www.marketingcharts.com/online/ott-streaming-devices-overtake-tablets-in-digital-video-ad-views-51789/

"Video ad views of Broadcast shows' current seasons grew by 67%
year-over-year, and for programmers, 94% share of ad views during Q4 came for
current season shows rather than archival content; ..."

That's nice, but it tells you very little about the size of the broadcast
audience. What it does tell you, as we have seen in many articles, is that
people are not scheduling appointments to watch the live linear broadcast, but
are instead, using a VOD portal - network.com, Hulu, etc. to view in the C+3 to
C+7 window. it is quite possible that this 67% growth is happening even as
overall ratings for network shows continue to fall, which they are in reality.

It also tells us that there is more interest in recent "fresh" content on
demand, than library content, at least for ad supported programming.


"Broadcast shows' current seasons" sounds like what people can watch FOTA as
well as on MVPD nets. To me, it says your 2010 stat is out of date. That 67%
growth must show SOMETHING. At the very least, the shows make money.

Yes, TV shows make money. Well are align about an industry that still generates
hundreds of billions in revenue. But you stat primarily reflects how this
content is being consumed. It is also worth noting that the 67% increase is
being measured against a very small number, as these services did not exist a
few years ago, and several articles I have posted claim that OTT streaming is
still in the single digits, as a percentage of all types of TV consumption

You are basing your claims on cherry picked facts

Show me where anything I posted or said is "cherry picked." I base my claims
on what is, not on what I would like things to be, Craig.

The article you posted is focused on devices used to view ad supported VOD
services. It talks about shifts in usage of these devices, e.g. From tablets to
streaming devices connected to a TV. This is a subset of a subset of the TV
market, not a valid analysis of overall market trends.

The percentage of overall TV viewing is certainly increasing, probably at an
accelerating rate. But the starting point is still small. I look forward to
seeing some updated numbers, as I expect we may see the entire OVD market share
break into the double digits soon, if it has not already happened.

Regards
Craig


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  • » [opendtv] =?utf-8?Q?Re:_[opendtv]_Re:_Netflix_Is_6%_of_TV_Business,_43%_of? =?utf-8?Q?_Ratings_Decline_—_Nathanson_|_Re/code?Date: Sat, 9 May 2015 11:36:31 -0400 - Craig Birkmaier