[opendtv] Re: opendtv Digest V3 #13
- From: Craig Birkmaier <brewmastercraig@xxxxxxxxxx>
- To: opendtv@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
- Date: Thu, 21 Jan 2016 09:49:49 -0500
On Jan 20, 2016, at 6:06 PM, Daniel Grimes <dan.grimes@xxxxxxxx> wrote:
Does this really mean anything? If so, what?
It is a measure of how each company has managed the transition from desktop to
laptop to always on/always there mobile devices. But much more important, it is
a measure of the importance of computing ecosystems, and how they tie all of
our computing devices together.
Apple is making more money that Windows? That iOS is replacing Windows? I
don't think it could be either.
Actually it's a bit of both, but I do understand your reluctance to compare the
two ecosystems. Apple is clearly making more money than Microsoft. But it is
Apple's ecosystem, not iOS that is beginning to replace Windows.
Microsoft has largely missed the transition to mobile. Windows phone is largely
irrelevant, making it necessary for Microsoft to rely on both Android and iOS
to extend the Office franchise to its most important enterprise customers. The
situation with tablets is not much better, with Microsoft relying on running a
desktop OS on devices optimized for a touchscreen interface in order to stay
relevant. The jury is still out on these hybrid devices...
Clearly iOS is not replacing Windows. It was never intended to do that. OS-X is
Apple's direct competition to Windows, and that franchise is growing as the
Windows franchise continues to decline precipitously.
Apple sold $25 billion in products to enterprise customers last year, and that
numbers is expected to continue growing rapidly. Much of this may be due to the
"halo effect" created by iOS devices. But it is also being driven by the
partnerships Apple has entered with IBM and Cisco. Again, it is the ability to
create enterprise solutions that work across desktop, laptop, tablet and
smartphone that are fueling this transition away from Windows.
This seems like an odd comparison to me. The iPhone as a "personal
computer"? That is definitely redefining the "PC". I suppose the iPhone can
do more than the PC could do a couple of decades ago but cannot be considered
as productive as today's Windows or Macintosh machine.
This view completely misses the point. The smartphone is not a replacement for
a desktop or laptop. It is an extension of the "cloud" of data and applications
that now define "personal computing."
Perhaps we are hung up on an age old dilemma. What happens when a product so
defines a market that its name becomes synonymous with the category. A classic
example is "Kleenex."
The "PC" acronym has become synonymous with computers that run Microsoft
Windows. But computing has become far more "personal" than the PC.
Tablets have added to the confusion, especially when a keyboard is added. But
their primary role continues to be focused on personal consumption, not
productivity; or to run apps that turn them into the modern equivalent to the
client/server approach to enterprise computing.
If it were, there wouldn't much need for the Macintosh. I think one could
argue that the tablets (especially the Windows tablets, perhaps some newer
iPads) are approaching what we historically used a "PC" to do. I can't
imagine anyone saying an iPhone has replaced the productivity of their laptop
or deskstation.
As Steve Jobs said when he introduced the iPad, we will still need "trucks" to
run serious productivity applications. You can edit 4K video on the iPad Pro,
but it is not going to replace a PC or Mac running Media Composer, Premier Pro
or Final Cut Pro.
At best the hybrid tablets may be a substitute for a laptop, but I seriously
doubt they will replace laptops and desktops for real productivity.
But there are applications where a tablet may do a better job; the Apple Pencil
together with the iPad Pro supports artistic creativity in ways that were
formerly addressed by attaching a Wacom tablet to a desktop.
Again, it is too early to tell if Surface and Windows 10 are going to turn the
decline of Windows around.
Perhaps what might seem like an odder, yet more applicable, comparison is the
television and mobile device. How can those two be compared? They are the
two devices media is mostly consumed on. And the applications spent on each
device could be enlightening.
Again, we are seeing a fundamental transformation in the way media is consumed.
Video is no longer the domain of skilled professionals, nor is it constrained
to the display in the family room. The same technologies that are transforming
the market for personal computing devices are transforming the way we consume
entertainment content.
But it is important to consider how the technology is changing not only the
mobile devices we now use both to acquire and consumer video, but the big
screen TV that still resides in the family room.
We have not even mentioned devices like Apple TV, Amazon Fire TV, Roku et al.
Apple TV extends the iOS ecosystem to the big screen, not only for
entertainment content, but for gaming, photography, shopping, and the next big
thing - IOT.
I still believe the most important drivers of the inevitable upgrade to 4K
displays will have less to do with TV entertainment than the role that the big
screen will play in new applications, particularly things like shopping and
planning vacations.
Perhaps I am missing the point of this comparison, but it is as if iOS and
Windows were in some form of competition. Are they? The truth is that
almost everyone has a laptop and/or workstation (and mostly a Windows PC) AND
a mobile device. So with the popularity of the iPhone, wouldn't it make
sense that these two numbers are essentially even?
I do agree that the Twitter graphic does not tell the whole story. It is truly
an apples and oranges comparison. But the most important fact it illustrates is
that the Microsoft ecosystem is now in decline while the Apple ecosystem is
growing.
One of the major reasons for Microsoft's dramatic growth in the late '90s and
early 2000's was to bring personal computers into our homes. The enterprise
market has always been at the core of the Windows business, but the PC in the
home represented a much larger market opportunity. For many consumers that old
desktop PC is collecting dust as tablets address most of what consumers want to
do with a personal computing device. And now tablets are starting to replace
desktops in many enterprise applications.
Will "most everyone" still need a Windows PC in the future?
The glowing loss in this graph is the fact that there are other numerically
significant OSs out there, as well.
Very True.
Linux is also a factor that is causing the Windows decline, but it still helps
sell PCs, which IDC and Gartner include in their PC market stats.
And Google is having an impact as well, especially in education, where
Chromebooks have major market share.
Once again, I think the real significance illustrated is the importance of
ecosystems rather than vertical device markets.
Thanks to Dan for framing an interesting discussion!
Regards
Craig
Dan
On Thu, Jan 14, 2016 at 10:11 PM, FreeLists Mailing List Manager
<ecartis@xxxxxxxxxxxxx> wrote:
From: Craig Birkmaier <brewmastercraig@xxxxxxxxxx>
Date: Thu, 14 Jan 2016 09:03:33 -0500
Subject: [opendtv] Horace Dediu on Twitter: "iOS overtook Windows last year,
as
https://mobile.twitter.com/asymco/status/687048149358231552
Regards
Craig
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