[opendtv] Re: Zenith/LG NOT announcing new STB's based upon 5'th gen chip
- From: Bob Miller <bob@xxxxxxxxxx>
- To: opendtv@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
- Date: Wed, 12 Jan 2005 13:10:13 -0500
Craig Birkmaier wrote:
>At 2:28 PM -0500 1/11/05, Bob Miller wrote:
>
>
>>In The UK there was no analog turnoff and sales of receivers continue to
>>accelerate with a receiver going for $37.53 and $56.29 pre Christmas. I
>>think you had to buy $50 worth of merchandise to get the $37.53 price.
>>As Craig mentioned sales for the quarter exceeded 1.3 million up to
>>12/11/04. That would suggest 1.6 million for the quarter, 4 million for
>>the year and 5.5 million next year. 11.5 million the first three years
>>or in US terms 69 million. What if we had been at it for the last 5
>>years instead of the UK's 2? What if we had COFDM for the last 5 years?
>>How many USDTV's would there have been created if we could have had a
>>business plan that made sense?
>>
>>
>
>How many USDTVs would fare as well as On Digital did?
>
>While I admire your enthusiasm for a transmission system that works,
>this aspect of the "product" is only important to consumers when it
>DOES NOT work. Consumers could care less about the "technical
>infrastruture;" what they care about is the content and the value
>proposition.
>
>OnDigital DID NOT provide a compelling value proposition; it plodded
>along while BSkyB walked off with 80% or more of the subscription DTV
>market in the U.K.
>
>Freeview dramatically changed the value proposition (there is
>something appealing about "FREE"); as a result it has grown to become
>the 10 largest DTV deployment in the world.
>
>
I think that OnDigital failed for specific business decisions. If they
had been able to offer a combination of free and subscription based
service like is now being offered in the UK they would have succeeded.
They also suffered from even lower power levels than the average ONE kW
being used in the UK now.
Starting in January 2001 using higher US power levels, SFNs, a receiver
that would by now cost as little as $60 (COFDM HD, SD receivers are
being sold retail not bought wholesale for $40 in the UK) an offering
like USDTV with a 50 SD channels subscription service and all the free
HD and SD also being offered and PVR functionality we could have had 90
million receivers distributed in the US by the end of 2005.
In the UK in just the last quarter they have SOLD not given away 1.6
million receivers. That would be 9.6 million receivers in the US in just
that one quarter. In the US over the last 4 years we would have had
another factor. Not only would multiple ventures have been distributing
free receivers, there would also be a mobile and portable market that
does not exist in the UK.
More free channels, the mobile market, a subscription service with
content not available free ( a plus in my book) and free receivers all
add up to an even higher sales rate than is occurring in the UK not a
lower one. 90 million is the number you get if you just follow the sales
rate in the UK and apply it to the US.
Something north of 90 million is probably more accurate for the US from
January 2001 thru the end of 2005.. By now you could have 20 to 30
million mobile devices alone. The average home might have more than one
device by the end of 2005. We will never know but the numbers coming out
of other countries will continue to astound. All those portable media
players, a new one introduced each day, would have OTA receivers in them
in 2005. Those 60% of SUVs that Chrysler sells with rear seat DVD
players in the roof would all have OTA receivers built in and the number
would rise from 60% to 85%. The car market alone would have 5 to 10
million receivers in them by the end of 2005.
No I think I have estimated a low number with 90 million.
Bob Miller
>
>
>>USDTV almost gives their 8-VSB receivers away now at $19.95. Their cost
>>is close to or just over $150 per. Our cost for COFDM HD receivers in
>>2001 was $140 in quantity. Our plan at the time called for giving away
>>the receiver. Actually the customer would pay for it with a one or two
>>year subscription.
>>
>>
>
>And how is USDTV doing?
>
>Last i checked they had 10,000 subscribers in three markets, where
>they can reach nearly 2,000,000 homes; that 0.5% market penetration.
>Sadly, this may be the largest deployment of ATSC receivers, but it
>is not exactly setting the world on fire.
>
>
>
>>What if there had been 10 USDTV ventures over the last 5 years offering
>>free COFDM HD receivers? That is an even better deal than what is being
>>offered in the UK.
>>
>>
>
>You mean the On Digital deal that failed?
>
>
>
>>I suggest that by the end of 2005 our digital
>>transition would have been over a full year ahead of the 2006 deadline.
>>We would have 90 million receivers distributed by the end of 2005. The
>>only controversy left would be that many homes had 2 to 5 receivers and
>>that the 85% still had not been met. But of course the whole deadline
>>thing would be passe. Broadcasters would already have been turning off
>>their analog transmitters as fast as they could in many markets.
>>
>>
>
>Sorry Bob but I do not think you can justify this assertion based on
>the notion of using the broadcast spectrum to deliver a PAID
>multichannel service that competes with far more capable cable and
>DBS competitors. If on the other hand, U.S. broadcasters had been
>offering a reliable FREE multichannel service, I suspect that it
>would be doing as well as Freeview. I seriously doubt that this would
>have resulted in the sales of 90 million receivers; 20-30 million
>would be a more realistic estimate.
>
>
>
>>May sound crazy but so did the numbers being racked up in the UK every
>>quarter. I thought I was way out on a limb when I predicted 1 million
>>for the last quarter of 2004 in the UK and we are going to be 60% over
>>that. Next year could be as I predict, 5.5 million or maybe it will be
>>10 million in the UK. Why not? Every time I come up with a crazy number
>>the beat it.
>>
>>
>
>Its amazing what can happen when the value proposition improves...
>
>Regards
>Craig
>
----------------------------------------------------------------------
You can UNSUBSCRIBE from the OpenDTV list in two ways:
- Using the UNSUBSCRIBE command in your user configuration settings at
FreeLists.org
- By sending a message to: opendtv-request@xxxxxxxxxxxxx with the word
unsubscribe in the subject line.
Other related posts:
