Bob Miller wrote: > I think that less than 5% of Berliners were using > OTA before DTT was started. At nine months and the > analog cutoff 13% of Berliners had an OTA receiver. > The demand for receivers because of the turnoff of > analog would not have been more than 5% if it was > the threat of turnoff that drove sales. Yes just > before and after turnoff sales were affected but > demand was driven by the product, 30 channels of > free OTA STV. Just before each phase of the analog turnoff, which occurred in two phases, sales saw a spike. The number of OTA users, according to their report, was 8.9 percent before DTT started. And they gained more users after, as some folk with cable and DBS augmented with DTT receivers. I doubt you can make the case that DTT stole cable or DBS users. They at least supplemented these. The numbers in the mabb report (probably dated now) are: 60 percent of DVB-T STB sales went to OTA-only users 26 percent went to cable users 14 percent went to DBS users And in the US, where cable and DBS households are already being supplemented by NTSC OTA, or ATSC, this should also be the case. Especially as ATSC receivers improve. And even more especially as more and more millions of people buy ED or HD capable monitors, which show up the poor quality of NTSC OTA programs and SD DBS images all too clearly. In Berlin, analog users had 12 channels to choose from before the transition. To those 8.9 percent of viewers still OTA, 12 channels was probably enough. It took analog shutoff to make them switch, and with the switch came a demographic shift too (to the "under 50s" group). It's all about momentum. The combination of good, affordable receivers and analog shutoff is what created this momentum in Berlin. If these good receivers would finally reach the press hypesters and the store shelves, we'll see the same effect here. The UK experience is different. There is a culture there of free TV that doesn't exist either here or in Germany. That's why the Berlin example is more applicable to our situation, IMO. Bert ---------------------------------------------------------------------- You can UNSUBSCRIBE from the OpenDTV list in two ways: - Using the UNSUBSCRIBE command in your user configuration settings at FreeLists.org - By sending a message to: opendtv-request@xxxxxxxxxxxxx with the word unsubscribe in the subject line.