[opendtv] Re: U.S. NEEDS A CLEAR PICTURE OF WIRELESS
- From: Craig Birkmaier <craig@xxxxxxxxx>
- To: opendtv@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
- Date: Sat, 9 Jan 2010 10:23:01 -0500
At 3:27 PM -0600 1/8/10, Manfredi, Albert E wrote:
Craig Birkmaier wrote:
There is a widespread belief in the broadcast industry that cable
could not exist without the content from the major networks. This
may have been true in the '80s, but has not been true for the past
two decades.
I disagree, and the facts are also very much against you on this.
Yes, the audience is more fractured than it was. BUT, the contents
of the major networks are still the most coveted.
BERT... BERT... BERT...
As they say in the Apple commercials, "Theres an APP for that!
Its called ratings, and they are almost as reliable as public opinion polls.
"Most Coveted" is a relative term.
Most watched may be more accurate, but this is relative too.
Most people drink Bud Light, but the craft beer industry is growing
while the majors are starting to decline.
Perhaps we should consider another metric: Most Profitable.
What happened when HGTV and the Food Network were dropped from
certain cable systems? NOTHING. What happens when any of the major
networks threaten to subtract their content? Huge uproar, every
single time this happens, Craig, including over the holidays.
University of Florida Fans in Orlando were upset that they might not
be able to watch the Sugar Bowl and filed a lawsuit which was
rejected. That about the only uproar I heard around here about the
TW/FOX Spat.
And I would like to remind you that On Digital went bankrupt because
they spent too much for a major sports league. There is a long
history in the broadcast industry of using "loss leaders" to build
audiences. This strategy worked well during an era when there was
program scarcity, and program adjacency was a valuable tool in
building the audience.
Wait until you hear the uproar in January 2011 when the Bowl
Championship Series moves to ESPN. I'll bet that Disney has timed
some of its contracts to expire at the end of 2010...
;-)
Also, I just posted recently what the top 100 shows were in the US,
and how 92 of those were not *just* from the major networks, but
*also* available FOTA. So it's pretty clear that more fractured or
not, the network content still reigns.
NO. It just means that they start with a base of FOTA viewers and get
some MVPD viewers when there is something worth watching.
There is a reason that >60% of the total audience IS NOT watching
the content offered by broadcasters during prime time.
I don't know if that number is real, but I would suggest it changes nothing.
Figures. It has changed everything Bert.
Why did the congloms use retrans consent to take control of
non-broadcast content, creating new networks and buying up most of
the rest?
Just because Americans have become accustomed to more staple foods
than just hamburghers and french fries does not translate to
hamburghers and french fries are on their way out of existence.
Correct. But we are consuming less fast food and more good food.
Hamburgers may still have the highest ratings, but they are not what
most people covet.
The subscriber fee discussion is something else, however. The supply
side will always attempt to maximize profits, that's how the system
is supposed to work. The demand side is responsible for introducing
the regulation in the machine. Your argument about gradual changes
in fees does not change anything. Gradual changes are typical all
throughout the economy. The demand side is still responsible for
this regulation function. Consumers, that means.
And when the supply side and the distribution side and the
politicians control what we watch via a heavily regulated
oligopolies, the demand side can't do much about it.
The majority of Americans would like less government, lower taxes,
and to keep the government out of personal health care decisions. The
Tea Party folks who speak up are characterized by the politicians and
the media as a bunch of right wing nuts.
Supply and demand are terms that are associated with FREE markets.
Regards
Craig
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