[opendtv] Re: UK DTV: 250,000 STBs a month

  • From: Bob Miller <bob@xxxxxxxxxx>
  • To: opendtv@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
  • Date: Sat, 23 Oct 2004 13:27:42 -0400

Craig Birkmaier wrote:

>At 9:16 AM -0400 10/22/04, Mark Schubin wrote:
>  
>
>>Terry Harvey wrote:
>>
>>    
>>
>>>If US broadcasters really cared about the future of their industry, they
>>>would have promoted digital OTA, pushed harder for better production
>>>quality and extended services etc.(the often upconverted MPEG-NTSC
>>>mutilation is dire),  To date the broadcasters have not done so and as a
>>>result US terrestrial DTV continues to languish.
>>>
>>>      
>>>
>>I would like to suggest a perfectly good reason why broadcasters had not
>>done so previously.
>>
>>Until the 5th-generation LG receiver (which is not yet available to the
>>public) was tried in my home, I had selective DTT reception.  In one
>>antenna location (not merely orientation), I could receive only Fox.
>> So, if other broadcasters were to promote DTT to viewers like me, they
>>would potentially be driving audience to their competitors.
>>
>>It is significant, I believe, that Sinclair began promoting DTT in
>>earnest after their testing of the 5th-generation LG receiver.
>>
>>As for production, it takes time to justify a change of recently
>>purchased equipment, but, as technical supervisor of many broadcast
>>shows, I can assure you that more and more of my work is in HDTV.
>>
>>TTFN,
>>Mark
>>    
>>
>
>Both arguments are completely valid.
>
>Yes, the lack of viable receivers did provide a good excuse for doing 
>nothing. But is the corollary necessarily true. That is, will the 
>existence of receiver that work cause broadcasters to start promoting 
>DTV?
>
>Singling out Sinclair as an example is kind'a ironic. It is clear 
>that they are the Mavrick of TV land. I doubt that they would have a 
>huge impact on DTV uptake if they ran promotional ads for DTV 24/7 on 
>all of their stations. What matters is whether Joe Six-Pack is going 
>to give up cable or DBS and rely on an antenna. Yes, some brave souls 
>will put up an antenna to supplement their MPVD service, especially 
>those with DBS. But this is not enough to bring about a significant 
>change. I see no evidence that the broadcast networks (like those 
>that Sinclair stations carry) are going to start promoting DTV at the 
>expense of NTSC. I see no evidence that most local stations are going 
>to promote DTV.
>
>The one area where 5th Gen receivers are likely to have a positive 
>impact is with USDTV. This makes their service much more viable from 
>a technical perspective. The jury is still out on the viability of 
>the business model.
>
>Regards
>Craig
>
>P.S. Having said all of this, the pending FCC ruling on digital cable 
>carriage is likely to have a larger impact on the future of DTV than 
>5th Gen receivers.
>
The FCC ruling will either require full carriage of all programming a 
broadcasters can fit into his 6 MHz channel in which case the courts 
will strike it down or even reverse must carry all together IMO or the 
FCC will only require one program be carried in which case most 
broadcasters would deliver an HD program.

Both are cable centric. The future is OTA DTV broadcasting and the 5th 
gen receiver, being the first real 8-VSB receiver, will have enormous 
impact.

This impending rebirth of OTA does not require that broadcasters play an 
active role. It requires that only one entity play an active and 
successful role. The rest will follow like sheep climbing all over each 
other to catch up. It may be Sinclair or USDTV or a sleeper no one has 
heard of.

The fifth gen receiver presents the opportunity for a successful OTA 
business plan. The precedent is the UK. Yes the UK is different. They 
are much slower on the uptake than the US. The US copy of the UK will be 
even more successful. As we see a US model has almost free and soon free 
receivers, USDTV model, free is an even lower price than the price being 
paid happily by millions in the UK.

They will sell a million receivers in the UK this quarter and if the 
pattern holds from last year, a million receivers the first quarter of 
next year. Even I have a hard time believing that one.

 
 
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