[opendtv] Re: The Competition
- From: Craig Birkmaier <craig@xxxxxxxxx>
- To: opendtv@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
- Date: Wed, 7 May 2008 23:24:25 -0400
At 12:50 PM -0400 5/7/08, Manfredi, Albert E wrote:
In this article, I didn't see mention of WiMAX.
Just in the headline.
But let's assume WiMAX
it is. Unlike 802.11, 802.16 (WiMAX) is a scheme to set up wireless
point-to-point links, and the range can be much more than 100 meters
(nominal for the slower 802.11 variants). Multicast and broadcast
channels are also possible with 802.16e.
Yup. so they can compete directly with DSL and cable modems for most
homes. The P to P version will allow for good spectral reuse too.
But to provide 2-way service to many subscribers, this will end up being
very much like 4G cell network technology, competing directly with
Verizon and AT&T. Smallish cells to support lots of frequency re-use, to
allow the system to scale up to many broadband subscribers in a small
geographic area.
No doubt. The article inferred that the new consortium would compete
directly with both AT&T and Verizon, AND it stated that their
spectrum was not as good/versatile as what AT&T and Verizon just
bought. The main advantage for the consortium appears to be time to
market.
If high levels of utilization are a problem -there are many variables
here - then everyone should make money as the scarcity of spectrum
will drive up the price per bit.
They would have to deliver a lot more than 5 Mb/s to make DVDs or BluRay
obsolete, though. Until a subscriber can download an HD movie in far
less time than it takes to view it, the disc media will continue to be
more convenient. This is especially true for mobile appliances such as
this article addresses.
It is easy to download a movie in about the time it takes to view it
now. With higher speed broadband it is much faster. The iTunes
equivalent of an SD-DVD movie is a file that is just over a gigabyte
(varies with movie length). I believe the HD movies are about 4 GB.
On my 1.5 Mbps broadband it took 5-6 hours to download two movies (at
the same time) before I left for NAB. While in Vegas I downloaded
another movie via Cox cable - it took less than one hour. TODAY, you
can download movies from Netflix and start watching the movie in less
than 20 minutes.
Movies are not the problem. We are already inside the window of how
long it takes to go out an rent a movie.
The price charged by broadcasters for MPH, assuming they will charge a
fee, can be substantially lower than the price a 2-way service would
have to charge. Because for a 2-way service to offer dedicated 2-way
links, like 4G and WiMAX would have to do, they need to balance how much
broadcast spectrum to eat up vs. how much to make available for
dedicated 2-way service.
IF broadcasting is even needed. But let's assume that it will be
possible to deliver the same content to multiple users simultaneously
( you could call this broadcast, but I would just call it queuing for
the next multicast.
And then there is the issue of what kind of bits people will want. I
can tell you that the percentage of time I spend viewing video
downloads on my iPhone is tiny compared to the amount of time I spend
doing "normal" web surfing.
So part of the balancing act is to determine what people really
want...and where.
Infrastructure costs and spectrum requirements for a 2-way cell service
vs a broadcast tower are what you should be comparing. The spectral
efficiency of 8T-VSB, or even 1/2 or 1/4 rate, are going to be totally
comparable with what you'll get on WiMAX, for a given robustness level.
(Parenthetically, I saw another example of journalistic confusion in the
paper today. The article was about how the media buzz got away from
Ethanol fuels. In recalling the Ethanol promise, the journalist compared
"clean ethanol" against "climate-changing fossil fuels." Astounding
level of misunderstanding and befuddlement.)
Sad but true.
It will be interesting to watch how this plays out...
Regards
Craig
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