[opendtv] Terrestrials 'to lose 13% of viewing' by switchover

  • From: "Manfredi, Albert E" <albert.e.manfredi@xxxxxxxxxx>
  • To: <opendtv@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
  • Date: Sun, 17 Dec 2006 19:32:29 -0500

This seems to be contrary to what we have been told, and to what is
supposed to have occurred in Germany. But it does suggest that just
maybe, migration to TV subscription services is just one of those trends
that happens everywhere, in due time. Who knows.

The reason why this decline is happening is not given, however it sure
does contradict much of the loud proclamations made to this list, not to
mention the cure-all virtues of COFDM.

Who knows. Maybe what happens with Freeview is that people see how
wonderful it is to get many more channels than before, which they
experience because the service is still free, and all that does is
encourage them to go for even more, cost be damned? If that's the case,
I'd expect that a new equilibrium will then occur, maybe more on the
order of 20 percent staying OTA, rather than 67 percent (UK) or 75



Terrestrials 'to lose 13% of viewing' by switchover

Terrestrial television channels are set to lose nearly 13% of their
combined audience share by the 2012 digital switchover completion date,
according to research commissioned by Broadcast magazine.

Media analyst DGA examined how digital take-up has affected the viewing
shares of BBC One, BBC Two, ITV1, Channel 4 and Five in recent years.
Their current collective share of 67.3% is set to fall to 58.7%, with
multi-channel brands taking 41.3% of all viewing.

BBC Two is likely to suffer the biggest drop, from 8.9% to 7.3% by 2012.
BBC One is expected to fall from 22.9% in 2006 to 20.3%, while ITV1
could drop from 20.1% to 17.8%. Channel 4 could be down by 14.5% to 8.2%
while Five is predicted to fall from 5.8% to 5.1%.

Meanwhile, UK marketing trade body the Institute of Practitioners in
Advertising (IPA) has released latest quarterly data showing a
continuing decline in overall daily viewing, down from 3.42 hours at the
end of Q3 2005 to 3.31 hours at the end of Q3 2006.

The IPA analysis puts the five terrestrial channels on a 64.6% audience
share, down from 69.5% in Q3 2005, and 73.1% in Q3 2004. "The major
channels continue to suffer from the inexorable growth of the
non-terrestrial channels, which have now reached a share of 35%," said
the IPA.

Lovelace Consulting 08.12.2006
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